So???

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  • QuestionAuthority
    QuestionAuthority Idaho Posts: 327
    Uncle Leo wrote:
    "gauranteed". You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

    Allow me to be the first to say it on this thread. McCain will win. Obama will take IL and DC and a couple of bigger states. But I think there will be a ton of McCain democrats. Not for the same reasons there were a lot of Reagan Dems.

    I would have agreed with you on the McCain democrats.. but no way since he put Palin on the ticket.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


    As individual fingers we can easily be broken, but together we make a mighty fist ~ Sitting Bull
  • Solat13
    Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    gathering speed wrote:
    Mccain will be the next president.

    I see that happening as well.

    I don't think Obama will get close to the level of support Kerry got in 2004 in Philadelphia. Kerry got 81% of the vote in Philly and got 412,000 more votes than W in 2004. Kerry only carried Pennsylvania by 145,000.

    And I think we can all agree in general McCain is much more liked in the country than W was in 2004 so I assume that Obama is not going to take Philly by nearly that much.

    If Obama's support in Philly isn't at least 70%, I don't think he'll carry PA and if he doesn't carry PA, he has no shot of winning.
    - Busted down the pretext
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  • stuckinline
    stuckinline Posts: 3,407
    unfortunately, mccain will win
  • digster
    digster Posts: 1,293
    Solat13 wrote:
    I see that happening as well.

    I don't think Obama will get close to the level of support Kerry got in 2004 in Philadelphia. Kerry got 81% of the vote in Philly and got 412,000 more votes than W in 2004. Kerry only carried Pennsylvania by 145,000.

    And I think we can all agree in general McCain is much more liked in the country than W was in 2004 so I assume that Obama is not going to take Philly by nearly that much.

    If Obama's support in Philly isn't at least 70%, I don't think he'll carry PA and if he doesn't carry PA, he has no shot of winning.

    How will Obama not do well in Philly?

    -Urban environment, high Democratic numbers.
    -Large African-American population which is overwhelmingly voting Democratic this year due to Obama's policies and background.

    Obama's support is much larger than Kerry's ever was. Obama may be the first Democratic candidate in history to actually get the youth vote to come out in a significant number. Add that in with all the previously unregistered voters that Obama has brought into the fold (which all these polls are not counting, considering they base their numbers and calls on past presidential elections). If Obama has as good a ground game in the general election as he had in the primary, and gets these people out to the polls. McCain will not do well in Philly at all. It may be that ground game that costs McCain the election.

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