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Predictions for March 4th Primaries

ledveddermanledvedderman Posts: 7,761
edited March 2008 in A Moving Train
I see Clinton winning Ohio and Rhode Island. She should win Ohio by somewhere around four or five points. Not the slam dunk she needs in order to come out with a substantial delegate gain.

Obama should win Vermont with almost 60% of the vote. This is where he can easily make up some of the delegates from Ohio and Rhode Island. When she wins, it's close, but when Obama wins he wins big and takes in chunks of delegates.

Texas? I have no fucking idea. The momentum is on Obamas side there. He SHOULD win the state, but the Clintons have some deep roots there. This one is a toss up if I've ever seen one. I think Obama will come out on top in the delegates here, but I have no idea how the popular vote will go.

Another question. What happens on March 5th if there is a split? Does Clinton go on?

I was watching "Face The Nation" and Bill Richardson was (without saying it) showing his support for Obama and his hope that Hillary would drop out after Tuesday. I really hope she does so this can move on to general election mode and we can bring the party back together.
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Comments

  • cornnifercornnifer Posts: 2,130
    As much as i hate to say it, i can see hillary squeaking by in both Ohio and Texas. Though she'll do very little to close the delegate gap, she spins them as huge momentum shifting victorires and goes on (Vermont and RI will probably cancel eachother out). She drags this thing a long way i'm afraid. As much as it seems strange after 11 consecutive victories, and huge momentum build-up, i think Obama needs to win in Texas and end this thing now. i hope he does, and if you would have asked me on Friday i would have felt very confident. Today, not so much, for some reason.
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  • ledveddermanledvedderman Posts: 7,761
    cornnifer wrote:
    As much as i hate to say it, i can see hillary squeaking by in both Ohio and Texas. Though she'll do very little to close the delegate gap, she spins them as huge momentum shifting victorires and goes on (Vermont and RI will probably cancel eachother out). She drags this thing a long way i'm afraid. As much as it seems strange after 11 consecutive victories, and huge momentum build-up, i think Obama needs to win in Texas and end this thing now. i hope he does, and if you would have asked me on Friday i would have felt very confident. Today, not so much, for some reason.

    I feel the same way. My confidence is down right now about tomorrow. I'm hoping the shitty weather tomorrow keeps some of the over 50 crowd at home.
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  • upina2001upina2001 Indiana Posts: 764
    clintons done...

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  • blackredyellowblackredyellow Posts: 5,889
    I think he wins Texas outright... She probably squeaks out a win in Ohio, but even still, I'll be interested to see how the exit polling comes back as far as what demographics support her/him.

    I'm guessing after tomorrow, he still gets a net increase in delegates, but her winning Ohio will keep her in the race until PA.
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  • stuckinlinestuckinline Posts: 3,380
    ledvedderman wrote:
    I feel the same way. My confidence is down right now about tomorrow. I'm hoping the shitty weather tomorrow keeps some of the over 50 crowd at home.
    the over fifty crowd usually request absentee ballots are have already mailed their votes in ;)
  • poto101poto101 Posts: 406
    Cannot wait to watch the Daily SHow tonight
    It's all happening....

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  • ledveddermanledvedderman Posts: 7,761
    poto101 wrote:
    Cannot wait to watch the Daily SHow tonight

    Ah, you're right. I forgot Hillary was on there tonight.

    Taking time out of campaigning during the afternoon to do The Daily Show, which airs at 11 in Ohio and 10 in Texas, though just seems like a poor campaign choice.
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  • puremagicpuremagic Posts: 1,907
    I'll be surprise if Clinton does not take Texas and Ohio not to underplay the other States. I just think that TX and OH are basically republican, pro military supported and backed States, therefore, a Clinton win, would mean a Clinton/McCain ticket, which ='s McCain in the White House.

    If Obama should by some slim chance pull out TX or OH, Hillary will and should remain in the race. For once we have an election that is actually making people think about the issues and their choses.

    As much as I respect anyone right to run for President or any other office, start that the beginning, Nader coming in with the bases loaded and wanting to pinch hit is just plain wrong.
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