Guess the bottom

beachdweller

So I guessed we see 8k a couple months ago in the Dow, now that this is a reality, 7k is a given, most likely today. Will we see 6k?

I'm actually liking this bear of bears. It's a middle class adjustment in my eyes. I know Wall st, let alone our economy is extremely complicated, but for all the pain we will all feel, the middle class will be better off if we can regulate wall street better, and get the tax cuts Obama is suggesting. He also needs to follow up and cut the size of government, this more than anything else. If he wants to add any programs, the end result still needs to be a smaller government. If he can do this, and give us the healthcare, education, and energy programs we need, deserve, and have a right to (constitutionally is another argument), then that would be great.

if he expands government, that won't work.

Oh yeah, 6k range is my guess on the bottoming out of the Dow

know1

beachdweller wrote:

So I guessed we see 8k a couple months ago in the Dow, now that this is a reality, 7k is a given, most likely today. Will we see 6k?

I'm actually liking this bear of bears. It's a middle class adjustment in my eyes. I know Wall st, let alone our economy is extremely complicated, but for all the pain we will all feel, the middle class will be better off if we can regulate wall street better, and get the tax cuts Obama is suggesting. He also needs to follow up and cut the size of government, this more than anything else. If he wants to add any programs, the end result still needs to be a smaller government. If he can do this, and give us the healthcare, education, and energy programs we need, deserve, and have a right to (constitutionally is another argument), then that would be great.

if he expands government, that won't work.

Oh yeah, 6k range is my guess on the bottoming out of the Dow

Which tax cuts is Obama suggesting again?

mammasan

beachdweller wrote:

So I guessed we see 8k a couple months ago in the Dow, now that this is a reality, 7k is a given, most likely today. Will we see 6k?

I'm actually liking this bear of bears. It's a middle class adjustment in my eyes. I know Wall st, let alone our economy is extremely complicated, but for all the pain we will all feel, the middle class will be better off if we can regulate wall street better, and get the tax cuts Obama is suggesting. He also needs to follow up and cut the size of government, this more than anything else. If he wants to add any programs, the end result still needs to be a smaller government. If he can do this, and give us the healthcare, education, and energy programs we need, deserve, and have a right to (constitutionally is another argument), then that would be great.

if he expands government, that won't work.

Oh yeah, 6k range is my guess on the bottoming out of the Dow

If we close at under 8000 today we may still be OK. The overseas markets are closed for two days so that will give us a bit of a break. If the Dow remains under 8000 at the closing bell on Tuesday we will see some serious problems come Wednesday.

beachdweller

know1 wrote:

Which tax cuts is Obama suggesting again?

if you don't know, you shouldn't be allowed to vote, but you can and that's the problem with the country

saveuplife

beachdweller wrote:

So I guessed we see 8k a couple months ago in the Dow, now that this is a reality, 7k is a given, most likely today. Will we see 6k?

I'm actually liking this bear of bears. It's a middle class adjustment in my eyes. I know Wall st, let alone our economy is extremely complicated, but for all the pain we will all feel, the middle class will be better off if we can regulate wall street better, and get the tax cuts Obama is suggesting. He also needs to follow up and cut the size of government, this more than anything else. If he wants to add any programs, the end result still needs to be a smaller government. If he can do this, and give us the healthcare, education, and energy programs we need, deserve, and have a right to (constitutionally is another argument), then that would be great.

if he expands government, that won't work.

Oh yeah, 6k range is my guess on the bottoming out of the Dow

Dude, Obama is going to raise spending and raise taxes. The size of government will obviously increase. Also, the real relative size of gov't will increase even larger because he's going to raise corporate taxes and increase taxes on small business. Therefore, private sector will shrink and gov't will grow. It's all one pie.

That said, my guess is 7500.

beachdweller

mammasan wrote:

If we close at under 8000 today we may still be OK. The overseas markets are closed for two days so that will give us a bit of a break. If the Dow remains under 8000 at the closing bell on Tuesday we will see some serious problems come Wednesday.

I think this is all good, except for those that are going to rely on the money they had in the market between now and 5 years or so. I think the market gains have been unrealistic, alone with housing price gains the last decade.

mammasan

Anyone who thinks that Obama will reduce government spending or the size of government needs to wake up.

jimed14

saveuplife wrote:

Dude, Obama is going to raise spending and raise taxes. The size of government will obviously increase. Also, the real relative size of gov't will increase even larger because he's going to raise corporate taxes and increase taxes on small business. Therefore, private sector will shrink and gov't will grow. It's all one pie.

That said, my guess is 7500.

Sorry, the old "TAX AND SPEND" democrat line went way out the door with gool ol' Geroge Bush ... the new repulicans spend just as much, if not more, than democrats ever would.

McCain is no fiscal conservative. Just look at his home buyback plan ... a fucking JOKE.

mammasan

beachdweller wrote:

I think this is all good, except for those that are going to rely on the money they had in the market between now and 5 years or so. I think the market gains have been unrealistic, alone with housing price gains the last decade.

This is definitely a shitty situation for people who had retirement money in the market, especially if they where planning on retiring soon. This is just a negative bubble, as high as the market went is as far down as it is going to fall. Had we just allowed for the market to self correct itself after the dot com burst and 9/11 we wouldn't be sitting here today watching the Dow loose over 2000 points in one week.

Flagg

7200

saveuplife

jimed14 wrote:

Sorry, the old "TAX AND SPEND" democrat line went way out the door with gool ol' Geroge Bush ... the new repulicans spend just as much, if not more, than democrats ever would.

McCain is no fiscal conservative. Just look at his home buyback plan ... a fucking JOKE.

I'm not arguing that Bush wasn't a mindf*ck with spending. However, I am arguing that Obama's plan is to increase spending (overall) and increase taxes (overall). Whereas McCain's is to cut spending (overall) and lower taxes (overall). That's their plans.

You are dead right on the buyback plan. I completely agree.

blackredyellow

mammasan wrote:

Anyone who thinks that Obama will reduce government spending or the size of government needs to wake up.

The same should be said about McCain as well.

mammasan

blackredyellow wrote:

The same should be said about McCain as well.

I agree. Neither candidates fiscal policy is worth shit. On one hand you have a guy who wants to tax more and spend and on the the other hand you have a guy who wants to tax less and spend.

know1

beachdweller wrote:

if you don't know, you shouldn't be allowed to vote, but you can and that's the problem with the country

I'm serious. I can't find where he's cutting taxes. Maybe you could try and answer the question.

(but it seems several other posters in this thread have the same question. Perhaps they shouldn't be allowed to vote either).

mammasan

know1 wrote:

I'm serious. I can't find where he's cutting taxes. Maybe you could try and answer the question.

(but it seems several other posters in this thread have the same question. Perhaps they shouldn't be allowed to vote either).

There was an independent study that showed how Obama's tax plan would cut taxes for people making under $100,000 a year. I agree with that part of the plan but he would also be raising taxes on small business at a time when they can't afford it, that being the part I don't like.

nothinghead

mammasan wrote:

There was an independent study that showed how Obama's tax plan would cut taxes for people making under $100,000 a year. I agree with that part of the plan but he would also be raising taxes on small business at a time when they can't afford it, that being the part I don't like.

The rebuttal I have heard is that it was only those making more than $250k per year, which I've read is only about four percent.

That number, however, seems incredibly low to me. Of course maybe we're counting "small businesses" as those who make $275k and under or something like that.

Is there an actual static designation for "small business"?



Of course, I don't think very highly of McCain's economic plan either. His plan seems to be tax less, spend more, and have the federal government directly involved in private loans at a substantial cost to a country terribly in debt.

Obama's plan clearly grows the government, raises taxes on Americans. Yes, people making more money than you are still Americans, and believe it or not, a large portion of them aren't criminals.

Let's also take a minute and consider we're having a discussion about which guy is in favor of lower taxes and smaller government when they both just voted for a bailout bill of more than $700B. Plus the $140B more attached to it. Oh, and AIG has more than $100B out from the Federal Reserve...so on, so forth.

But yes, back to discussing which candidate is in favor of a smaller government, lower taxes, and responsible spending, yes?

Also, after a trillion dollars worth of war in Iraq, they both seem all hot and bothered to beef up expenditures in Afghanistan and start turning their sights to Iran.

Solat13

Flagg wrote:

7200

Doh'

that was my guess and you beat me too it.

That was where the market was at 6 years ago.

mammasan

Solat13 wrote:

Doh'

that was my guess and you beat me too it.

That was where the market was at 6 years ago.

Except back then the Dow lost 2000 in the span of a year. It lost 2000, this time, in the span of a week.

mammasan

Well it seems that the market is making a push. I can't help but wonder if such violent swings are healthy for the market?

Solat13

mammasan wrote:

Well it seems that the market is making a push. I can't help but wonder if such violent swings are healthy for the market?

They're probably not. But I bet my boss $50 that the market would end up positive at close today and after being down almost all of the day hundreds of points, it's nice to see it back on the plus side so close to closing.

mammasan

Solat13 wrote:

They're probably not. But I bet my boss $50 that the market would end up positive at close today and after being down almost all of the day hundreds of points, it's nice to see it back on the plus side so close to closing.

WOW it's up 239 points. This is just crazy about an hour ago it was down almost 500 points. This type of roller coster activity can't be healthy.

jimed14

mammasan wrote:

WOW it's up 239 points. This is just crazy about an hour ago it was down almost 500 points. This type of roller coster activity can't be healthy.

as quickly as that happened, it's back to even ... "profit" takers getting what they can ...

mammasan

Now it's down over 11 points. What the fuck is going on!!!

mammasan

jimed14 wrote:

as quickly as that happened, it's back to even ... "profit" takers getting what they can ...

Are these type of drastic highs and lows healthy?

RolandTD20Kdrummer

beachdweller wrote:

if you don't know, you shouldn't be allowed to vote, but you can and that's the problem with the country

hahahaah..

thanks or that...

I like this place...it makes me chuckle

RolandTD20Kdrummer

mammasan wrote:

Anyone who thinks that Obama will reduce government spending or the size of government needs to wake up.

yes but don't forget the sprinkles on that pile of shit...

It's sprinkles....people like sprinkles.

DriftingByTheStorm

mammasan wrote:

Now it's down over 11 points. What the fuck is going on!!!

Today was a classic double bottom pattern, guys.

The reason for the massive volatility between highs and lows was because traders were recognizing that 2x dip (when it went back down to -300 on a news release near mid day) and started trying to rally off of a chart bottom.

Of course, this being a bear market, there were plenty of other folks who were ready to short any perceived top, or simply sell back their long positions, and NO ONE was probably too excited about holding a long position going in to the weekend.

It's just too soon.

I'd expect this volatility to taper off a few points, but remain elevated the next few weeks ... but i would hope to see the markets fail to make any significant new lows (maybe brush 7900 in early trading, to rebound quickly by noon) and start testing highs in mid-late afternoon.

If we can get the first day of trading over next week with that sort of form -- tagging lows early on, highs around 1-3pm, and fading back to scratch by close -- we will hopefully be set up for a sharp 500-1000 point rally in the next few days.

Just pray for no bad news.
I have to check the econ. calendar and see what could fuck us, though.

Fingers crossed, boys and girls.
This is a good sign.

Now if only the goddamn overnight interbank lending rates would go down, i would stop freaking out!

darthvedder81

mammasan wrote:

There was an independent study that showed how Obama's tax plan would cut taxes for people making under $100,000 a year. I agree with that part of the plan but he would also be raising taxes on small business at a time when they can't afford it, that being the part I don't like.

Obama's middle class "tax cuts" are nothing of the sort. 40% of wage earners in this country don't pay income tax at all and they are the ones who make up the bulk of the "middle class." You can't cut $0. What Obama means by a cut is actually a rebate paid for buy those who do pay taxes. So if you are one of the few in this country who pay the majority of federal income tax you can expect to either a) see your tax rates go up or b) your income is about to be redistributed to the middle class. It's the new definition of "fairness" according to Joe Biden. This is ironic as the income tax system in this country is already the most unfair system of taxation imaginable.

John McCain is either unwilling or unable to explain this very simple truth and it's costing him the election. For Obama to do this and increase government spending by close to a trillion dollars in these trying economic times is irresponsible and dangerous and is yet another reason why he is unfit to be commander-in-chief.

beachdweller

mammasan wrote:

Anyone who thinks that Obama will reduce government spending or the size of government needs to wake up.

anyone that thinks that any republican will do anything positive for the middle class is fooling themselves. As for reducing government size, that's easy after how much the republicans have increased it the last 7.5 years. Obama can decrease the size easy.

As for all this corporate taxes rhetoric, it didn't hurt the economy in the 90's, jobs were created, monthly expenditures for individuals and families weren't high, so for those that cry and try and envoke fear over Obama raising taxes, increasing the size of government, even though his plan is the exact opposite, needs to realize they are firing blanks.

mammasan

beachdweller wrote:

anyone that thinks that any republican will do anything positive for the middle class is fooling themselves. As for reducing government size, that's easy after how much the republicans have increased it the last 7.5 years. Obama can decrease the size easy.

As for all this corporate taxes rhetoric, it didn't hurt the economy in the 90's, jobs were created, monthly expenditures for individuals and families weren't high, so for those that cry and try and envoke fear over Obama raising taxes, increasing the size of government, even though his plan is the exact opposite, needs to realize they are firing blanks.

Obama has in no way shape or form expressed reducing the size of the Federal Government, in fact he supports the opposite. I'm not saying that McCain is any better, they both suck, but don't try to pass off Obamam as some savior. He will continue the misguided policies of the Dems and Reps that have plagued this nation for decades.

beachdweller

mammasan wrote:

Obama has in no way shape or form expressed reducing the size of the Federal Government, in fact he supports the opposite. I'm not saying that McCain is any better, they both suck, but don't try to pass off Obamam as some savior. He will continue the misguided policies of the Dems and Reps that have plagued this nation for decades.

yes he has, and stated so in the debates, he stated he would cut government enough by looking at the budget line item by line item, and either cutting the bad programs or making them run more efficiently, and yes he wants to add a lot, but he specifically said that the end result, even after adding his healthcare, energy, and education plans, will be a smaller government that we have know. Bush has increased it so much, they is plenty to cut. That has been his stated approach.

I understand people don't believe him, that's fine, but it is his stated policy approach.