Sociopolitical forecasting.

brianlux

Once in a while, we come across an example of things people have said that accurately forecast, foretell, or predict where we are at today.
(P.S. This is not a metaphysics thread.  This is an example that was based on logical, critical thinking.)

"The wilderness should be preserved for political reasons.  We made need it someday not only as a refuge from excessive industrialism but also as a refuge from authoritarian government, from political oppression.  Grand Canyon, Big Bend, Yellowstone, and the High Sierra may be required to function as bases for guerrilla warfare against tyranny. What reason have we Americans to think our own society will necessarily escape the world-wide drift toward totalitarian organization of men and institutions?
     This may seem, at the moment, like a fantastic thesis.  Yet history demonstrates that personal liberty is a rare and precious thing, that all societies tend toward the absolute until attack from without or collapse from within breaks up the social machine and makes freedom and innovation again possible."

From Desert Solitaire, Edward Abbey, page 130

Think about it.  Who want to reduce wilderness and who fights to protect wild lands?  Who is doing everything in their power to limit personal freedoms?  Who is in favor of totalitarian regimes and who is in favor of democracy?  

The above quote was published in 1968 and was probably written about 57 or 58 years ago.

And here we are. 

brianlux

Too bad not very many people listened to old Ed all these years ago.  We could be less than a year away from living under authoritarian rule.  I can't even imagine what that would look like.  It try to picture it because I don't like surprises of that degree.  Good luck to us all if things don't go well this November.

brianlux

"Prognostication" is such an ugly word.  No wonder I'm the only one posting here.    So I changed the title.

But seriously, so we really want to let this country be ruled by authoritarian MAGAs?  Look what's at stake:

"And if Donald Trump wins the White House, Ukraine will be lost. And where will Putin venture next? Yet another reason to stop Trump from retaking the White House. Yes, U.S. democracy is at stake, but so is, and I say this without hyperbole, world peace."

-Dan Rather, 4/16/24

tempo_n_groove

brianlux said:

Once in a while, we come across an example of things people have said that accurately forecast, foretell, or predict where we are at today.
(P.S. This is not a metaphysics thread.  This is an example that was based on logical, critical thinking.)

"The wilderness should be preserved for political reasons.  We made need it someday not only as a refuge from excessive industrialism but also as a refuge from authoritarian government, from political oppression.  Grand Canyon, Big Bend, Yellowstone, and the High Sierra may be required to function as bases for guerrilla warfare against tyranny. What reason have we Americans to think our own society will necessarily escape the world-wide drift toward totalitarian organization of men and institutions?
     This may seem, at the moment, like a fantastic thesis.  Yet history demonstrates that personal liberty is a rare and precious thing, that all societies tend toward the absolute until attack from without or collapse from within breaks up the social machine and makes freedom and innovation again possible."

From Desert Solitaire, Edward Abbey, page 130

Think about it.  Who want to reduce wilderness and who fights to protect wild lands?  Who is doing everything in their power to limit personal freedoms?  Who is in favor of totalitarian regimes and who is in favor of democracy?  

The above quote was published in 1968 and was probably written about 57 or 58 years ago.

And here we are. 

If we can't own guns then we aren't going to be guerillas.

smagnus1

The Ewoks took on the empire with sticks and stones🤣. Vicious little murder bears 

Spunkie

smagnus1 said:

The Ewoks took on the empire with sticks and stones🤣. Vicious little murder bears 

Cute. Forgot about those ewoks! 
History repeats! 

brianlux

I know I know I know... there's humor in everything.

brianlux

tempo_n_groove said:

brianlux said:

Once in a while, we come across an example of things people have said that accurately forecast, foretell, or predict where we are at today.
(P.S. This is not a metaphysics thread.  This is an example that was based on logical, critical thinking.)

"The wilderness should be preserved for political reasons.  We made need it someday not only as a refuge from excessive industrialism but also as a refuge from authoritarian government, from political oppression.  Grand Canyon, Big Bend, Yellowstone, and the High Sierra may be required to function as bases for guerrilla warfare against tyranny. What reason have we Americans to think our own society will necessarily escape the world-wide drift toward totalitarian organization of men and institutions?
     This may seem, at the moment, like a fantastic thesis.  Yet history demonstrates that personal liberty is a rare and precious thing, that all societies tend toward the absolute until attack from without or collapse from within breaks up the social machine and makes freedom and innovation again possible."

From Desert Solitaire, Edward Abbey, page 130

Think about it.  Who want to reduce wilderness and who fights to protect wild lands?  Who is doing everything in their power to limit personal freedoms?  Who is in favor of totalitarian regimes and who is in favor of democracy?  

The above quote was published in 1968 and was probably written about 57 or 58 years ago.

And here we are. 

If we can't own guns then we aren't going to be guerillas.

Well, I was hesitant to mention this but... continuing on the next page, Mr. Abbey says (a bit abbreviated here):

"Suppose we were planning to impose a dictatorial regime on the American people- the following preparations would be essential:

1. Concentrate the populace in megalopolitan masses so that they can be kept under close surveillance.

2. Mechanize agriculture to the highest degree of refinement, thus forcing the most scattered... population into cities.

3. Restrict the possession of firearms.

4. Encourage or at least fail to discourage population growth.

5. Continue military conscription.

6. Divert attention from deep conflicts within the society by engaging in foreign wars.

7. Overlay the nation with a finely reticulated network of communications, airlines, and interstate autobahns (Abbey's italics).

8.Raze the wilderness.

That said, among others, Abbey's good friend and terrific writer in her own right, Terry Tempest Williams, has made a good argument for the power of the pen over the power of arms.  She was searched by a federal employee one time who found something stuffed in her socks.  She was asked, "What are these?"  Williams responded, "Weapons".  The person doing the search pulled out a pad of paper and a pen, made eye contact with Williams, and replaced the objects. 

We cannot/ will not stop authoritarian rule from taking over this country by using arms.  Not in the 21st century.  We can only stop a dictatorial regime through smart thinking, voting, writing, educating.  At this point in history, taking up arms to that end is futile.