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*** the DONALD J TRUMP IS OFFICIALLY A CONVICTED FELON thread ***

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    Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,224
    mace1229 said:
    mace1229 said:

    Where can I go to review the evidence that convinced the 23 person grand jury to indict the former president? 
    https://www.lawfareblog.com/new-york-trump-indictment-unsealed
    I suggest folks read both documents.
    I had only read the indictment. I hadn't read the Statement of Facts that followed.

    That did answer most of the questions I had. And it sounds like he does lay out what the bigger crime was. He says multiple times the payment itself was illegal. 
    Seems odd because I've heard 100 times this week that there was no mention of the other crime and that he doesn't have to, but he says it "Lawyer A made the $130,000 payment through a shell corporation he set up and funded at a bank in Manhattan. This payment was illegal, and Lawyer A has since pleaded guilty to making an illegal campaign contribution."

    But I've also heard many times that the payment was fine, it was how it was recorded was wrong. I don't know, I guess we'll see in the coming months what it is.

    If hush money payment is illegal during a campaign, then I will admit my previous posts are wrong. But if not, and the only illegal part is how they recorded it, then that still stands there is no bigger crime to make this into a felony. 
    My guess is that you’re hearing people say the payment was fine is because Cohen didn’t go to trial about it, he pleaded guilty instead, so using mental gymnastics, someone could say this is “okay”. 
    I think with Cohen the argument was since he paid for it initially (and Trump paid him back with monthly installments disguised as legal fees) it should have been considered a donation, and was above the legal limit for a donation. Paying for silence was fine, but coming from a third party like Cohen made it a donation. That was my understanding of it.


    Doesn’t matter who made the payments . If the purpose was to keep the public from knowing the truth before the election, it’s a campaign contribution. I think it’s a good idea to get comfortable with this first before trying to process if there is a real crime here. 


    Also, Hal posted some very specific legal details here at 1.55pm - as I mentioned earlier trump is stuck between a rock and a hard place if any of his entities took a tax deduction for this, if he tries to claim he bribed stormy for marital reasons. So it’s either tax fraud or an illegal campaign contribution, so it seems, but that’s why we have juries.
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    HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 36,087
    2024
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    Flight Risk out NOW!

    www.headstonesband.com




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    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,456
    2023
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    Welp...there are multiple other indictments looming on the horizon that may disagree with this notion....time will tell. 
    chinese-happy.jpg
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    gimmesometruth27gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 22,271
    2023
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.- Hemingway

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
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    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,456
    2023
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Options
    Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,972
    2023
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    Shoulda drunk the blood of children, then it’d have been immune.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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    mace1229mace1229 Posts: 9,042
    edited April 2023
    mace1229 said:
    mace1229 said:

    Where can I go to review the evidence that convinced the 23 person grand jury to indict the former president? 
    https://www.lawfareblog.com/new-york-trump-indictment-unsealed
    I suggest folks read both documents.
    I had only read the indictment. I hadn't read the Statement of Facts that followed.

    That did answer most of the questions I had. And it sounds like he does lay out what the bigger crime was. He says multiple times the payment itself was illegal. 
    Seems odd because I've heard 100 times this week that there was no mention of the other crime and that he doesn't have to, but he says it "Lawyer A made the $130,000 payment through a shell corporation he set up and funded at a bank in Manhattan. This payment was illegal, and Lawyer A has since pleaded guilty to making an illegal campaign contribution."

    But I've also heard many times that the payment was fine, it was how it was recorded was wrong. I don't know, I guess we'll see in the coming months what it is.

    If hush money payment is illegal during a campaign, then I will admit my previous posts are wrong. But if not, and the only illegal part is how they recorded it, then that still stands there is no bigger crime to make this into a felony. 
    My guess is that you’re hearing people say the payment was fine is because Cohen didn’t go to trial about it, he pleaded guilty instead, so using mental gymnastics, someone could say this is “okay”. 
    I think with Cohen the argument was since he paid for it initially (and Trump paid him back with monthly installments disguised as legal fees) it should have been considered a donation, and was above the legal limit for a donation. Paying for silence was fine, but coming from a third party like Cohen made it a donation. That was my understanding of it.


    Doesn’t matter who made the payments . If the purpose was to keep the public from knowing the truth before the election, it’s a campaign contribution. I think it’s a good idea to get comfortable with this first before trying to process if there is a real crime here. 


    Also, Hal posted some very specific legal details here at 1.55pm - as I mentioned earlier trump is stuck between a rock and a hard place if any of his entities took a tax deduction for this, if he tries to claim he bribed stormy for marital reasons. So it’s either tax fraud or an illegal campaign contribution, so it seems, but that’s why we have juries.
    It actually does matter who made the payments. If Cohen made the payments, it's considered a donation and therefore subject to the donation limits. If it was Trump donating to his own campaign, he is not. One is illegal, the other is totally fine. Still needs to be reported correctly, but one has an underlying crime and the other does not.

    I also mention the either or in my last post. I view it as like an ambidextrous pitcher in MLB facing a switch hitter. The pitcher has to declare which arm he is throwing with first and the batter gets to decide which side of the plate to bat from. I would think the prosecution is has to declare what and how they are charging and then allow the defense to do their thing. Not charge him with one thing then if that doesn't work charge him with tax fraud instead. 

    I'm not arguing Trump is innocent by any means. The details of this are fascinating to me. It's like a web where one thing hinges on another. I'm guessing they will argue the payment was illegal because it was from an illegal donation. But was it a donation if it was reimbursed? I appreciate a lot of the responses so far.
    Post edited by mace1229 on
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    mace1229mace1229 Posts: 9,042
    edited April 2023
    Other fake news about this case, Trump is not the first president to be arrested.

    "Ulysses S. Grant, who had an eye for spirited horses and an apparent yen to test their mettle, was arrested in 1872 for speeding on a street in Washington."
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/04/nyregion/ulysses-grant-trump-arrest.html
    Post edited by mace1229 on
  • Options
    HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 36,087
    2024
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    Why would he be scared, seriously? The guy has never been held accountable for a thing in his life. I’m guessing he views this the same way. 
    Flight Risk out NOW!

    www.headstonesband.com




  • Options
    HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 36,087
    2024
    mace1229 said:
    Other fake news about this case, Trump is not the first president to be arrested.

    "Ulysses S. Grant, who had an eye for spirited horses and an apparent yen to test their mettle, was arrested in 1872 for speeding on a street in Washington."
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/04/nyregion/ulysses-grant-trump-arrest.html
    Interesting. But of course, it doesn’t sound as dramatic to say “only the second time a president has been arrested”. Lol
    Flight Risk out NOW!

    www.headstonesband.com




  • Options
    Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,972
    2023
    mace1229 said:
    mace1229 said:
    mace1229 said:

    Where can I go to review the evidence that convinced the 23 person grand jury to indict the former president? 
    https://www.lawfareblog.com/new-york-trump-indictment-unsealed
    I suggest folks read both documents.
    I had only read the indictment. I hadn't read the Statement of Facts that followed.

    That did answer most of the questions I had. And it sounds like he does lay out what the bigger crime was. He says multiple times the payment itself was illegal. 
    Seems odd because I've heard 100 times this week that there was no mention of the other crime and that he doesn't have to, but he says it "Lawyer A made the $130,000 payment through a shell corporation he set up and funded at a bank in Manhattan. This payment was illegal, and Lawyer A has since pleaded guilty to making an illegal campaign contribution."

    But I've also heard many times that the payment was fine, it was how it was recorded was wrong. I don't know, I guess we'll see in the coming months what it is.

    If hush money payment is illegal during a campaign, then I will admit my previous posts are wrong. But if not, and the only illegal part is how they recorded it, then that still stands there is no bigger crime to make this into a felony. 
    My guess is that you’re hearing people say the payment was fine is because Cohen didn’t go to trial about it, he pleaded guilty instead, so using mental gymnastics, someone could say this is “okay”. 
    I think with Cohen the argument was since he paid for it initially (and Trump paid him back with monthly installments disguised as legal fees) it should have been considered a donation, and was above the legal limit for a donation. Paying for silence was fine, but coming from a third party like Cohen made it a donation. That was my understanding of it.


    Doesn’t matter who made the payments . If the purpose was to keep the public from knowing the truth before the election, it’s a campaign contribution. I think it’s a good idea to get comfortable with this first before trying to process if there is a real crime here. 


    Also, Hal posted some very specific legal details here at 1.55pm - as I mentioned earlier trump is stuck between a rock and a hard place if any of his entities took a tax deduction for this, if he tries to claim he bribed stormy for marital reasons. So it’s either tax fraud or an illegal campaign contribution, so it seems, but that’s why we have juries.
    It actually does matter who made the payments. If Cohen made the payments, it's considered a donation and therefore subject to the donation limits. If it was Trump donating to his own campaign, he is not. One is illegal, the other is totally fine. Still needs to be reported correctly, but one has an underlying crime and the other does not.

    I also mention the either or in my last post. I view it as like an ambidextrous pitcher in MLB facing a switch hitter. The pitcher has to declare which arm he is throwing with first and the batter gets to decide which side of the plate to bat from. I would think the prosecution is has to declare what and how they are charging and then allow the defense to do their thing. Not charge him with one thing then if that doesn't work charge him with tax fraud instead. 

    I'm not arguing Trump is innocent by any means. The details of this are fascinating to me. It's like a web where one thing hinges on another. I'm guessing they will argue the payment was illegal because it was from an illegal donation. But was it a donation if it was reimbursed? I appreciate a lot of the responses so far.
    Let go of who made the payments and their purpose. I'm not up on NY law but I would imagine, like in any state, there are a shit ton of laws that govern registered businesses and trusts, and how you "account" for your business/trust dealings. That is the violation of law. 34 times, as listed, with documentary evidence and soon to be testimony. It seems to me Weasleberg sang like a canary on bird treats. Now, in addition, Bragg about bringing POOTWH down doesn't have to list tax fraud as a crime now. He's prosecuting POOTWH for 34 misdemeanor counts of falsification of business records in the furtherance of another crime, which is what makes it a felony. What do you suppose will happen when the documentary evidence and testimony proves this scheme took place? Do you think there may be witnesses, maybe from Mazars or Weasleberg himself, of whether these "business expenses" were claimed as tax deductions? For "legal fees" with no retainer? Opps, opens another door for a future tax evasion prosecution, me thinks. Its not being charged now and is being kept separate because even if it beats this rap, it can't claim double jeopardy for the tax evasion or fraudulent tax avoidance. Follow the money.

    As a side note, anyone want to guess as to the number of pages of documents Bragg about bringing POOTWH down will have to review to make the tax case? Anyone have a sense of the documents produced when you have 500 + shell companies? Anyone know who the POOTWH Organization's Accounts Payable Supervisor is?

    This is all the same shit POOTWH's daddy pulled that the NYT exposed but the statute of limitations had run out. Falsification of invoices/business records to avoid paying taxes or to be able to write them off. Mobsters don't fall far from the tree and it used to be, its who you know and not what you know. 1970s and 80s NYC City Hall was a much different place than 2020 NYC City Hall. Sucker.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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    Go BeaversGo Beavers Posts: 8,729
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    Welp...there are multiple other indictments looming on the horizon that may disagree with this notion....time will tell. 
    Don’t forget the federal defamation case with Jean Carrol. SAD!
  • Options
    Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,972
    2023
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    Welp...there are multiple other indictments looming on the horizon that may disagree with this notion....time will tell. 
    Don’t forget the federal defamation case with Jean Carrol. SAD!
    Will POOTWH take the stand? To clear his name, explain the misunderstanding?
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,456
    edited April 2023
    2023
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    Why would he be scared, seriously? The guy has never been held accountable for a thing in his life. I’m guessing he views this the same way. 
    Because he's never been arrested and criminally indicted before this week. He will likely be arrested and criminally indicted multiple times in the months ahead. You think it's a cake walk for his lawyers balancing multiple criminal indictments at the same time?

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/30/donald-trump-indictment-r-kelly-michael-avenatti-00088097

    I think he's scared. And should be. 
    Post edited by The Juggler on
    chinese-happy.jpg
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    Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,972
    2023
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    Why would he be scared, seriously? The guy has never been held accountable for a thing in his life. I’m guessing he views this the same way. 
    Because he's never been arrested and criminally indicted before this week. He will likely be arrested and criminally indicted multiple times in the months ahead. You think it's a cake walk for his lawyers balancing multiple criminal indictments at the same time?

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/30/donald-trump-indictment-r-kelly-michael-avenatti-00088097

    I think he's scared. And should be. 
    I think POOTWH knows Weaselberg and others have flipped and that he’s toast. The NYC case is just a peek into its world of dots. Tick tock.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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    gimmesometruth27gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 22,271
    2023
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    pence will plead the 5th like a good little fascist that he is.
    There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.- Hemingway

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
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    gimmesometruth27gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 22,271
    2023
    remember when trump told pence that he did not want to be friends anymore? in a just world pence would remember that. but i doubt he does.
    There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.- Hemingway

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
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    HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 36,087
    2024
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    Why would he be scared, seriously? The guy has never been held accountable for a thing in his life. I’m guessing he views this the same way. 
    Because he's never been arrested and criminally indicted before this week. He will likely be arrested and criminally indicted multiple times in the months ahead. You think it's a cake walk for his lawyers balancing multiple criminal indictments at the same time?

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/30/donald-trump-indictment-r-kelly-michael-avenatti-00088097

    I think he's scared. And should be. 
    I think POOTWH knows Weaselberg and others have flipped and that he’s toast. The NYC case is just a peek into its world of dots. Tick tock.
    This is why^^^

    People have literally been saying “he’s toast” or something similar for years. Out Of Our Minds is correct about that. 

    And he’s a narcissist with a god complex. No chance he thinks he’s going down for any of it. 
    Flight Risk out NOW!

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  • Options
    Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,972
    2023
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    Why would he be scared, seriously? The guy has never been held accountable for a thing in his life. I’m guessing he views this the same way. 
    Because he's never been arrested and criminally indicted before this week. He will likely be arrested and criminally indicted multiple times in the months ahead. You think it's a cake walk for his lawyers balancing multiple criminal indictments at the same time?

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/30/donald-trump-indictment-r-kelly-michael-avenatti-00088097

    I think he's scared. And should be. 
    I think POOTWH knows Weaselberg and others have flipped and that he’s toast. The NYC case is just a peek into its world of dots. Tick tock.
    This is why^^^

    People have literally been saying “he’s toast” or something similar for years. Out Of Our Minds is correct about that. 

    And he’s a narcissist with a god complex. No chance he thinks he’s going down for any of it. 
    Twice impeached and a subverted Team Mueller, plus long standing DOJ policy not to prosecute a sitting POTUS. Should have been toast three times. Chickens coming home to roost now, karma, whatever. Shit takes time and things are moving along. Its a wee little different in 2023 versus 2016-17, 2018 and 2020, no? Mazars, tax returns, Weasleberg, Jack Mack and the Heart Attacks because of Mar-I-Lieo and POOTWH's god complex, 1/6, Georgia SoS and the "perfect" phone call, all a little different than that russia, russia, russia collusion hoax, right?
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    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,456
    2023
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    Why would he be scared, seriously? The guy has never been held accountable for a thing in his life. I’m guessing he views this the same way. 
    Because he's never been arrested and criminally indicted before this week. He will likely be arrested and criminally indicted multiple times in the months ahead. You think it's a cake walk for his lawyers balancing multiple criminal indictments at the same time?

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/30/donald-trump-indictment-r-kelly-michael-avenatti-00088097

    I think he's scared. And should be. 
    I think POOTWH knows Weaselberg and others have flipped and that he’s toast. The NYC case is just a peek into its world of dots. Tick tock.
    This is why^^^

    People have literally been saying “he’s toast” or something similar for years. Out Of Our Minds is correct about that. 

    And he’s a narcissist with a god complex. No chance he thinks he’s going down for any of it. 
    He's criminally indicted for the first time in his life right now and will likely be criminally indicted multiple times in short order, Hugh. That's some new shit for him. 

    He's not president anymore. He's in quite a bit of trouble. lol
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Options
    Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,224
    mace1229 said:
    mace1229 said:
    mace1229 said:

    Where can I go to review the evidence that convinced the 23 person grand jury to indict the former president? 
    https://www.lawfareblog.com/new-york-trump-indictment-unsealed
    I suggest folks read both documents.
    I had only read the indictment. I hadn't read the Statement of Facts that followed.

    That did answer most of the questions I had. And it sounds like he does lay out what the bigger crime was. He says multiple times the payment itself was illegal. 
    Seems odd because I've heard 100 times this week that there was no mention of the other crime and that he doesn't have to, but he says it "Lawyer A made the $130,000 payment through a shell corporation he set up and funded at a bank in Manhattan. This payment was illegal, and Lawyer A has since pleaded guilty to making an illegal campaign contribution."

    But I've also heard many times that the payment was fine, it was how it was recorded was wrong. I don't know, I guess we'll see in the coming months what it is.

    If hush money payment is illegal during a campaign, then I will admit my previous posts are wrong. But if not, and the only illegal part is how they recorded it, then that still stands there is no bigger crime to make this into a felony. 
    My guess is that you’re hearing people say the payment was fine is because Cohen didn’t go to trial about it, he pleaded guilty instead, so using mental gymnastics, someone could say this is “okay”. 
    I think with Cohen the argument was since he paid for it initially (and Trump paid him back with monthly installments disguised as legal fees) it should have been considered a donation, and was above the legal limit for a donation. Paying for silence was fine, but coming from a third party like Cohen made it a donation. That was my understanding of it.


    Doesn’t matter who made the payments . If the purpose was to keep the public from knowing the truth before the election, it’s a campaign contribution. I think it’s a good idea to get comfortable with this first before trying to process if there is a real crime here. 


    Also, Hal posted some very specific legal details here at 1.55pm - as I mentioned earlier trump is stuck between a rock and a hard place if any of his entities took a tax deduction for this, if he tries to claim he bribed stormy for marital reasons. So it’s either tax fraud or an illegal campaign contribution, so it seems, but that’s why we have juries.
    It actually does matter who made the payments. If Cohen made the payments, it's considered a donation and therefore subject to the donation limits. If it was Trump donating to his own campaign, he is not. One is illegal, the other is totally fine. Still needs to be reported correctly, but one has an underlying crime and the other does not.

    I also mention the either or in my last post. I view it as like an ambidextrous pitcher in MLB facing a switch hitter. The pitcher has to declare which arm he is throwing with first and the batter gets to decide which side of the plate to bat from. I would think the prosecution is has to declare what and how they are charging and then allow the defense to do their thing. Not charge him with one thing then if that doesn't work charge him with tax fraud instead. 

    I'm not arguing Trump is innocent by any means. The details of this are fascinating to me. It's like a web where one thing hinges on another. I'm guessing they will argue the payment was illegal because it was from an illegal donation. But was it a donation if it was reimbursed? I appreciate a lot of the responses so far.

    If trump made the payments, then it still would be a campaign contribution because trump the person paid on behalf of the “Donald Trump for President campaign.” The key is that the campaign received something of value. Thats the key here. Its not the money itself that causes it to be a contribution, but the benefit the campaign received by keeping the news of the affair private.


    And if the reason was not the campaign but to save his marriage, then he has to explain potentially why he lied on his tax returns if he took the deduction for what amounts to personal business. With a jury in criminal cases once a defendant starts explaining things out of both sides of their mouth, the jury starts to believe the prosecutors over the defense.
  • Options
    gimmesometruth27gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 22,271
    2023
    what do you say to donald trump?





    "will the defendant please rise."
    There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.- Hemingway

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • Options
    ikiTikiT USA Posts: 11,025
    2023
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    pence will plead the 5th like a good little fascist that he is.
    You cannot just take the fifth because you don't want to talk. 

    Talking isn't going to open Mike Pence up to SELF incrimination.  There's ONE fish to fry, and his name isn't Mike Pence.

    There's one FLY to fish and it's on Mike Pence's head.
    Bristow 05132010 to Amsterdam 2 06132018
  • Options
    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,456
    2023
    lock

    him

    up
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Options
    mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 36,339
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    Why would he be scared, seriously? The guy has never been held accountable for a thing in his life. I’m guessing he views this the same way. 
    Because he's never been arrested and criminally indicted before this week. He will likely be arrested and criminally indicted multiple times in the months ahead. You think it's a cake walk for his lawyers balancing multiple criminal indictments at the same time?

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/30/donald-trump-indictment-r-kelly-michael-avenatti-00088097

    I think he's scared. And should be. 
    I think POOTWH knows Weaselberg and others have flipped and that he’s toast. The NYC case is just a peek into its world of dots. Tick tock.
    This is why^^^

    People have literally been saying “he’s toast” or something similar for years. Out Of Our Minds is correct about that. 

    And he’s a narcissist with a god complex. No chance he thinks he’s going down for any of it. 

    but it is true weiselberg secured independent counsel, and prosecutors have all his records........

    so all of his public bluster reminds me of the wizard of oz......
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Options
    gimmesometruth27gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 22,271
    2023
    ikiT said:
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    pence will plead the 5th like a good little fascist that he is.
    You cannot just take the fifth because you don't want to talk. 

    Talking isn't going to open Mike Pence up to SELF incrimination.  There's ONE fish to fry, and his name isn't Mike Pence.

    There's one FLY to fish and it's on Mike Pence's head.
    maybe he will have forgotten everything he has been asked about. if he wanted to testify he would not have been stalling and trying to get out of it all this time. 
    There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.- Hemingway

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • Options
    mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 36,339
    ikiT said:
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    pence will plead the 5th like a good little fascist that he is.
    You cannot just take the fifth because you don't want to talk. 

    Talking isn't going to open Mike Pence up to SELF incrimination.  There's ONE fish to fry, and his name isn't Mike Pence.

    There's one FLY to fish and it's on Mike Pence's head.
    maybe he will have forgotten everything he has been asked about. if he wanted to testify he would not have been stalling and trying to get out of it all this time. 

    potential candidate cannot piss off the cult, no?
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Options
    gimmesometruth27gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 22,271
    2023
    mickeyrat said:
    ikiT said:
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    pence will plead the 5th like a good little fascist that he is.
    You cannot just take the fifth because you don't want to talk. 

    Talking isn't going to open Mike Pence up to SELF incrimination.  There's ONE fish to fry, and his name isn't Mike Pence.

    There's one FLY to fish and it's on Mike Pence's head.
    maybe he will have forgotten everything he has been asked about. if he wanted to testify he would not have been stalling and trying to get out of it all this time. 

    potential candidate cannot piss off the cult, no?
    like mike pence is going to be the nominee of the hang mike pence party. dude has no self awareness.
    There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.- Hemingway

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • Options
    HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 36,087
    2024
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    Why would he be scared, seriously? The guy has never been held accountable for a thing in his life. I’m guessing he views this the same way. 
    Because he's never been arrested and criminally indicted before this week. He will likely be arrested and criminally indicted multiple times in the months ahead. You think it's a cake walk for his lawyers balancing multiple criminal indictments at the same time?

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/30/donald-trump-indictment-r-kelly-michael-avenatti-00088097

    I think he's scared. And should be. 
    I think POOTWH knows Weaselberg and others have flipped and that he’s toast. The NYC case is just a peek into its world of dots. Tick tock.
    This is why^^^

    People have literally been saying “he’s toast” or something similar for years. Out Of Our Minds is correct about that. 

    And he’s a narcissist with a god complex. No chance he thinks he’s going down for any of it. 
    Twice impeached and a subverted Team Mueller, plus long standing DOJ policy not to prosecute a sitting POTUS. Should have been toast three times. Chickens coming home to roost now, karma, whatever. Shit takes time and things are moving along. Its a wee little different in 2023 versus 2016-17, 2018 and 2020, no? Mazars, tax returns, Weasleberg, Jack Mack and the Heart Attacks because of Mar-I-Lieo and POOTWH's god complex, 1/6, Georgia SoS and the "perfect" phone call, all a little different than that russia, russia, russia collusion hoax, right?
    You’ve been saying it’s the end for him for about 5 years. 
    Flight Risk out NOW!

    www.headstonesband.com




  • Options
    Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,972
    2023
    My guess: guilty with a suspended sentence. No judge is putting a former prez in pridon. 
    maybe not in this case.

    georgia and the documents case, though. just watch.
    Pence testifying in front of Grand Jury in the J6 probe too. Trump has to be scared shitless with all of this stuff going on
    Why would he be scared, seriously? The guy has never been held accountable for a thing in his life. I’m guessing he views this the same way. 
    Because he's never been arrested and criminally indicted before this week. He will likely be arrested and criminally indicted multiple times in the months ahead. You think it's a cake walk for his lawyers balancing multiple criminal indictments at the same time?

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/30/donald-trump-indictment-r-kelly-michael-avenatti-00088097

    I think he's scared. And should be. 
    I think POOTWH knows Weaselberg and others have flipped and that he’s toast. The NYC case is just a peek into its world of dots. Tick tock.
    This is why^^^

    People have literally been saying “he’s toast” or something similar for years. Out Of Our Minds is correct about that. 

    And he’s a narcissist with a god complex. No chance he thinks he’s going down for any of it. 
    Twice impeached and a subverted Team Mueller, plus long standing DOJ policy not to prosecute a sitting POTUS. Should have been toast three times. Chickens coming home to roost now, karma, whatever. Shit takes time and things are moving along. Its a wee little different in 2023 versus 2016-17, 2018 and 2020, no? Mazars, tax returns, Weasleberg, Jack Mack and the Heart Attacks because of Mar-I-Lieo and POOTWH's god complex, 1/6, Georgia SoS and the "perfect" phone call, all a little different than that russia, russia, russia collusion hoax, right?
    You’ve been saying it’s the end for him for about 5 years. 
    It should have been the end of him for five years. There was a shit ton of fuckery that took place to deny justice.
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