---President Elect Musk and Convicted Felon Donald J Trump---

mrussel1

pjhawks said:

Gern Blansten said:

Let's hope the courts save us from the magats. I'm not sure I trust all of the polling right now but that it is even in tRump's favor is just ridiculous.

But if we vote him in again we deserve it.

National polls are meaningless.  It's coming down to the same 4-6 states it did in 2016 and 2020.   Also hard for me to believe Trump has gained votes.  Is anyone who didn't vote for him 2020 going to really vote for him in 2024?  I can't see a huge difference there.

I don't believe that either.  Those that can be swayed that easily are not what I would consider likely voters. What I know is since 2020, pollsters have undersampled Ds when compared to the actual election result. 

gimmesometruth27

2023

this is like that red wave that was supposed to happen that never happened.

polls do not make the results. voters do.

gimmesometruth27

2023

has anybody here gotten a political survey call? i haven't gotten one in 6 or 7 years. the poll respondents usually have home phones, and most people do not have home phones these days, so the poll results are always skewed towards older people and rarely reflect the actual voting outcomes any more. 

mrussel1

gimmesometruth27 said:

has anybody here gotten a political survey call? i haven't gotten one in 6 or 7 years. the poll respondents usually have home phones, and most people do not have home phones these days, so the poll results are always skewed towards older people and rarely reflect the actual voting outcomes any more. 

So here's my view.  One time about two years ago,  I answered an online text poll. Since then,  I get them all the time. I answer maybe 10% of them.  That tells me that pollsters are selling lists to each other.  And then the same people are answering over and over. 

Just a guess. 

Lerxst1992

mrussel1 said:

pjhawks said:

Gern Blansten said:

Let's hope the courts save us from the magats. I'm not sure I trust all of the polling right now but that it is even in tRump's favor is just ridiculous.

But if we vote him in again we deserve it.

National polls are meaningless.  It's coming down to the same 4-6 states it did in 2016 and 2020.   Also hard for me to believe Trump has gained votes.  Is anyone who didn't vote for him 2020 going to really vote for him in 2024?  I can't see a huge difference there.

I don't believe that either.  Those that can be swayed that easily are not what I would consider likely voters. What I know is since 2020, pollsters have undersampled Ds when compared to the actual election result. 

Yes, but Biden is continuing to sink. He is in Carter and HW Bush territory, places that historically spell doom for presidential candidates. I am not saying it’s wrong to prosecute trump, but it’s clearly not working politically.

Lerxst1992

We are starting to sound like what Dems were calling trump supporters in 2016, sour grapes about the polls.

yes, there are problems with polls, but when they say trump is more qualified by a margin of 48-32, that is well beyond a sampling error. At some point, the Dems need to control the narrative. So far they’ve come up empty on that.

Lerxst1992

pjhawks said:

Gern Blansten said:

Let's hope the courts save us from the magats. I'm not sure I trust all of the polling right now but that it is even in tRump's favor is just ridiculous.

But if we vote him in again we deserve it.

National polls are meaningless.  It's coming down to the same 4-6 states it did in 2016 and 2020.   Also hard for me to believe Trump has gained votes.  Is anyone who didn't vote for him 2020 going to really vote for him in 2024?  I can't see a huge difference there.

National polls tell us that trump and the gop are controlling the narrative, and the endless prosecutions are having no impact so far. They are telling us trump is locked in at his 2020 level, around 47%, while Biden is losing support, likely due to Israel and the migrant crisis. PJ Fans coming to nyc in September are in for a real surprise. The city has changed.

you prefer state polls? News ain’t much better. This is per Newsweek 1/31/24, “ Joe Biden is behind former President Donald Trump in seven 2024 swing states, with immigration the hot topic issue affecting the president's reelection hopes, according to a poll.

A Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey found that Biden is between three and 10 points behind the Republican front-runner in November's race in Arizona (47-43 percent), Georgia (49-41), Michigan (47-42), Nevada (48-40), North Carolina (49-39), Pennsylvania (48-45) and Wisconsin (49-44).”

josevolution

2025

Unlike you I’ll wait till the election is over to declare doom in the mean time I’ll just vote and do my part ! If this nation wants to go in the 🚽 by voting him in again this country deserves what it gets! At least I have choices on how to proceed going forward if he does get the WH again! 

Go Beavers

Lerxst1992 said:

We are starting to sound like what Dems were calling trump supporters in 2016, sour grapes about the polls.

yes, there are problems with polls, but when they say trump is more qualified by a margin of 48-32, that is well beyond a sampling error. At some point, the Dems need to control the narrative. So far they’ve come up empty on that.

It’s going to be close and come down to Ohio and/or PA. And why it’s close is because of Trump’s authoritarian appeal combined with his socially abhorrent behavior. 

Lerxst1992

Go Beavers said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Hoagie Breath said:

Voted for Obama '08
Voted for Obama '12
Voted for Hillary '16
Voted for Biden '20
Voting for Trump '24 

Sure, we believe you. 

The poll released by NBC today is stunning, and bears out what @HoagieBreath posted. To the question of competence, Trump leads Biden 48-32. Is it Hamas, inflation, or the migrant crisis to blame for Biden losing so much trust among the voters ?

The irony is that it’s completely lost, the endless attacks against trump are not working. Trump is a coward? No one in his 48% care whatsoever. He is holding firm to his republican and independent support from 2020.

Do voters even know trump ignored the supply chain crisis for nearly his entire last year in office? Who is to blame? The endless prosecutions of trump? The extremism forming at the fringes of the Democratic Party supporting a terrorist nation? Bidens lack of action addressing the border crisis, while places like NYC are falling apart in front of our eyes? PJ fans may be stunned what the city looks like this September

There’s been so much prosecution of trump the horrible person, but why have his opponents been unable to remind voters of his years in office? According to polls, trump has lost zero support in three years of prosecutions.

These Biden poll numbers are getting into Carter and HW Bush territory.

NYC is falling apart? I love NYC and I hope I get to see what it’s like in September. 

Despite Hal’s joke, NY has changed significantly in cleanliness and safety since the red border states started busing their migrants to us. You can easily Google nyc migrant crisis or you tube it if you haven’t had the chance to catch up on this story.

gimmesometruth27

2023

it is not going to be close. everyone calm the hell down and go vote.

gimmesometruth27

2023

the election is nine months away from today. this is the very early stage of a pregnancy. everyone relax ffs.

mrussel1

Go Beavers said:

Lerxst1992 said:

We are starting to sound like what Dems were calling trump supporters in 2016, sour grapes about the polls.

yes, there are problems with polls, but when they say trump is more qualified by a margin of 48-32, that is well beyond a sampling error. At some point, the Dems need to control the narrative. So far they’ve come up empty on that.

It’s going to be close and come down to Ohio and/or PA. And why it’s close is because of Trump’s authoritarian appeal combined with his socially abhorrent behavior. 

Not Ohio.  That state is gone

Merkin Baller

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

pjhawks said:

Gern Blansten said:

Let's hope the courts save us from the magats. I'm not sure I trust all of the polling right now but that it is even in tRump's favor is just ridiculous.

But if we vote him in again we deserve it.

National polls are meaningless.  It's coming down to the same 4-6 states it did in 2016 and 2020.   Also hard for me to believe Trump has gained votes.  Is anyone who didn't vote for him 2020 going to really vote for him in 2024?  I can't see a huge difference there.

I don't believe that either.  Those that can be swayed that easily are not what I would consider likely voters. What I know is since 2020, pollsters have undersampled Ds when compared to the actual election result. 

Yes, but Biden is continuing to sink. He is in Carter and HW Bush territory, places that historically spell doom for presidential candidates. I am not saying it’s wrong to prosecute trump, but it’s clearly not working politically.

I guess I’m naive in that I don’t think the charges he’s facing are politically motivated. 

Halifax2TheMax

2023

Lerxst1992 said:

Go Beavers said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Hoagie Breath said:

Voted for Obama '08
Voted for Obama '12
Voted for Hillary '16
Voted for Biden '20
Voting for Trump '24 

Sure, we believe you. 

The poll released by NBC today is stunning, and bears out what @HoagieBreath posted. To the question of competence, Trump leads Biden 48-32. Is it Hamas, inflation, or the migrant crisis to blame for Biden losing so much trust among the voters ?

The irony is that it’s completely lost, the endless attacks against trump are not working. Trump is a coward? No one in his 48% care whatsoever. He is holding firm to his republican and independent support from 2020.

Do voters even know trump ignored the supply chain crisis for nearly his entire last year in office? Who is to blame? The endless prosecutions of trump? The extremism forming at the fringes of the Democratic Party supporting a terrorist nation? Bidens lack of action addressing the border crisis, while places like NYC are falling apart in front of our eyes? PJ fans may be stunned what the city looks like this September

There’s been so much prosecution of trump the horrible person, but why have his opponents been unable to remind voters of his years in office? According to polls, trump has lost zero support in three years of prosecutions.

These Biden poll numbers are getting into Carter and HW Bush territory.

NYC is falling apart? I love NYC and I hope I get to see what it’s like in September. 

Despite Hal’s joke, NY has changed significantly in cleanliness and safety since the red border states started busing their migrants to us. You can easily Google nyc migrant crisis or you tube it if you haven’t had the chance to catch up on this story.

Please, tell us what stretch of time by decade or half decade was NYC “desirable,” “safe,” “booming,” or “insert positive adjective,” here? You probably aren’t old enough to remember the late 60s and all of the 70s, back when NYC declared bankruptcy and the Bronx, particularly the south Bronx and parts of Harlem were burned out shells. Major ‘Murican cities evolve, go up and down, change with the times, deal and move on from crisis, are reborn or wallow in misery for quite some time (Detroit). If you expect “Try That in a Small Town,” you’re, general you, aren’t being realistic.

I wonder who you fault for NYC’s demise?

mickeyrat

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

pjhawks said:

Gern Blansten said:

Let's hope the courts save us from the magats. I'm not sure I trust all of the polling right now but that it is even in tRump's favor is just ridiculous.

But if we vote him in again we deserve it.

National polls are meaningless.  It's coming down to the same 4-6 states it did in 2016 and 2020.   Also hard for me to believe Trump has gained votes.  Is anyone who didn't vote for him 2020 going to really vote for him in 2024?  I can't see a huge difference there.

I don't believe that either.  Those that can be swayed that easily are not what I would consider likely voters. What I know is since 2020, pollsters have undersampled Ds when compared to the actual election result. 

Yes, but Biden is continuing to sink. He is in Carter and HW Bush territory, places that historically spell doom for presidential candidates. I am not saying it’s wrong to prosecute trump, but it’s clearly not working politically.

and its not fucking political.  the rule of law matters or it fucking doesnt.

pick a fucking side.

pro constitution

anti constitution

there is no in between.

The Juggler

2023

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

pjhawks said:

Gern Blansten said:

Let's hope the courts save us from the magats. I'm not sure I trust all of the polling right now but that it is even in tRump's favor is just ridiculous.

But if we vote him in again we deserve it.

National polls are meaningless.  It's coming down to the same 4-6 states it did in 2016 and 2020.   Also hard for me to believe Trump has gained votes.  Is anyone who didn't vote for him 2020 going to really vote for him in 2024?  I can't see a huge difference there.

I don't believe that either.  Those that can be swayed that easily are not what I would consider likely voters. What I know is since 2020, pollsters have undersampled Ds when compared to the actual election result. 

Yes, but Biden is continuing to sink. He is in Carter and HW Bush territory, places that historically spell doom for presidential candidates. I am not saying it’s wrong to prosecute trump, but it’s clearly not working politically.

Yeah...I've been warning of his poor polling for months now. And I am legit surprised to see them continue to sink, despite things objectively getting better with the economy and inflation etc etc. It's not all just the national polling either, it's those few important swing states as well.

Four years ago, Biden was leading just about all of these head to head polls heading into 2020. Now, it's either tied or Trump is ahead in most of them. 


I disagree that the trials will help Trump though. The important ones have not started yet--big difference between those and civil cases. Another reason for Trump doing well is that he has largely disappeared from public eye (except for the people who follow this stuff closely all the time) for most of the last 3 years. The more people see and hear him, the more they will remember how horrific he and his admin was so that will help Joe.

The media must do a better job of covering these guys though. Trump does and says crazier and crazier shit multiple times a day but he's doing it in a maga void so most rational people in this country are oblivious to what he's saying on his truth app and in these rallies nobody pays attention to anymore. He sounds like a legit lunatic....conversely whenever Joe stumbles over a word or two, it gets headlines. 

Halifax2TheMax

2023

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

pjhawks said:

Gern Blansten said:

Let's hope the courts save us from the magats. I'm not sure I trust all of the polling right now but that it is even in tRump's favor is just ridiculous.

But if we vote him in again we deserve it.

National polls are meaningless.  It's coming down to the same 4-6 states it did in 2016 and 2020.   Also hard for me to believe Trump has gained votes.  Is anyone who didn't vote for him 2020 going to really vote for him in 2024?  I can't see a huge difference there.

I don't believe that either.  Those that can be swayed that easily are not what I would consider likely voters. What I know is since 2020, pollsters have undersampled Ds when compared to the actual election result. 

Yes, but Biden is continuing to sink. He is in Carter and HW Bush territory, places that historically spell doom for presidential candidates. I am not saying it’s wrong to prosecute trump, but it’s clearly not working politically.

Yeah...I've been warning of his poor polling for months now. And I am legit surprised to see them continue to sink, despite things objectively getting better with the economy and inflation etc etc. It's not all just the national polling either, it's those few important swing states as well.

Four years ago, Biden was leading just about all of these head to head polls heading into 2020. Now, it's either tied or Trump is ahead in most of them. 


I disagree that the trials will help Trump though. The important ones have not started yet--big difference between those and civil cases. Another reason for Trump doing well is that he has largely disappeared from public eye (except for the people who follow this stuff closely all the time) for most of the last 3 years. The more people see and hear him, the more they will remember how horrific he and his admin was so that will help Joe.

The media must do a better job of covering these guys though. Trump does and says crazier and crazier shit multiple times a day but he's doing it in a maga void so most rational people in this country are oblivious to what he's saying on his truth app and in these rallies nobody pays attention to anymore. He sounds like a legit lunatic....conversely whenever Joe stumbles over a word or two, it gets headlines. 

Trials will be delayed or postponed until after the election. POOTWH won’t debate Brandon. Carefully crafted image in tightly controlled situations versus having to address the issues of the day X the attention spans of the ‘Murican people X the social media sewer squared + desire for a “strong leader who tells it like it is and says and does what I think,” = Brandon’s demise.

The Juggler

2023

Halifax2TheMax said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

pjhawks said:

Gern Blansten said:

Let's hope the courts save us from the magats. I'm not sure I trust all of the polling right now but that it is even in tRump's favor is just ridiculous.

But if we vote him in again we deserve it.

National polls are meaningless.  It's coming down to the same 4-6 states it did in 2016 and 2020.   Also hard for me to believe Trump has gained votes.  Is anyone who didn't vote for him 2020 going to really vote for him in 2024?  I can't see a huge difference there.

I don't believe that either.  Those that can be swayed that easily are not what I would consider likely voters. What I know is since 2020, pollsters have undersampled Ds when compared to the actual election result. 

Yes, but Biden is continuing to sink. He is in Carter and HW Bush territory, places that historically spell doom for presidential candidates. I am not saying it’s wrong to prosecute trump, but it’s clearly not working politically.

Yeah...I've been warning of his poor polling for months now. And I am legit surprised to see them continue to sink, despite things objectively getting better with the economy and inflation etc etc. It's not all just the national polling either, it's those few important swing states as well.

Four years ago, Biden was leading just about all of these head to head polls heading into 2020. Now, it's either tied or Trump is ahead in most of them. 


I disagree that the trials will help Trump though. The important ones have not started yet--big difference between those and civil cases. Another reason for Trump doing well is that he has largely disappeared from public eye (except for the people who follow this stuff closely all the time) for most of the last 3 years. The more people see and hear him, the more they will remember how horrific he and his admin was so that will help Joe.

The media must do a better job of covering these guys though. Trump does and says crazier and crazier shit multiple times a day but he's doing it in a maga void so most rational people in this country are oblivious to what he's saying on his truth app and in these rallies nobody pays attention to anymore. He sounds like a legit lunatic....conversely whenever Joe stumbles over a word or two, it gets headlines. 

Trials will be delayed or postponed until after the election. POOTWH won’t debate Brandon. Carefully crafted image in tightly controlled situations versus having to address the issues of the day X the attention spans of the ‘Murican people X the social media sewer squared + desire for a “strong leader who tells it like it is and says and does what I think,” = Brandon’s demise.

I don't see all that happening. Once he's front and center in everyone's faces again his numbers will drop. It's not possible to carefully craft Trump's image in tightly controlled situations and have him be "on message" for more than a few days at a time during a general election. His "message" this time around repulses most people...they just have not heard it yet. 

Also don't think all of the trials will be postponed until after the election.

Also think (hopefully) sooner or later the facts of the economy will dawn on people and Biden will start improving in that area.

All that said....there is definite cause for concern right now.

benjs

My theory (and I could definitely be wrong) is that this election and every election beyond - the vast majority of advertising and vote swaying will occur very shortly before the election. There’s too much demand for the public’s attention to stand out and resonate for eight months - better to hold onto the budget, weather the low ratings for a while (easier to do as the sitting POTUS), then do a massive campaign with an enormous budget to change perception within the public and ride that momentum in near proximity to actual voting. If they invest it now, the other side will weaponize any and all attempts to prop Biden up, and will negate it. Closer to an actual election event, I don’t think the counter-narrative will have as much impact.