Anyone else tightening their belts? The price of chicken has now reached the price of dumb...
Where is this from? 1# of strawberries for 9.99 seems widely out of the norm. I'm in Texas. HEB has 1# of strawberries for 4.24. Costco has 2# for 5.99.
Anyone else tightening their belts? The price of chicken has now reached the price of dumb...
Where is this from? 1# of strawberries for 9.99 seems widely out of the norm. I'm in Texas. HEB has 1# of strawberries for 4.24. Costco has 2# for 5.99.
Brooklyn NY. Took the photo myself otherwise I wouldn’t believe it.
Anyone else tightening their belts? The price of chicken has now reached the price of dumb...
Where is this from? 1# of strawberries for 9.99 seems widely out of the norm. I'm in Texas. HEB has 1# of strawberries for 4.24. Costco has 2# for 5.99.
Anyone else tightening their belts? The price of chicken has now reached the price of dumb...
Where is this from? 1# of strawberries for 9.99 seems widely out of the norm. I'm in Texas. HEB has 1# of strawberries for 4.24. Costco has 2# for 5.99.
Anyone else tightening their belts? The price of chicken has now reached the price of dumb...
Where is this from? 1# of strawberries for 9.99 seems widely out of the norm. I'm in Texas. HEB has 1# of strawberries for 4.24. Costco has 2# for 5.99.
I've been paying that for organic. not regular...
Nick is that Stop n Shop? City of Long Island?
Key Food Bay Ridge Brooklyn.
What a rip off. I just looked up the price at the closest Walmart I could find and the price is 2.72. Target 3.59.
Anyone else tightening their belts? The price of chicken has now reached the price of dumb...
Brandon oughta get his ass out there picking strawberries, dammit! Can’t sell what’s not picked, thus rising prices. Or, are those hipster strawberries? Everything hipster is more expensive.
Anyone else tightening their belts? The price of chicken has now reached the price of dumb...
Brandon oughta get his ass out there picking strawberries, dammit! Can’t sell what’s not picked, thus rising prices. Or, are those hipster strawberries? Everything hipster is more expensive.
The reality is that we need unemployment to rise in order for inflation to get under control.
One thing that is interesting is that oil continues to drop. That tells me that the market thinks OPECD cut production because they are banking on the recession as well, rather than it being purely geo-political support of Russia.
Anyone else tightening their belts? The price of chicken has now reached the price of dumb...
Brandon oughta get his ass out there picking strawberries, dammit! Can’t sell what’s not picked, thus rising prices. Or, are those hipster strawberries? Everything hipster is more expensive.
The reality is that we need unemployment to rise in order for inflation to get under control.
One thing that is interesting is that oil continues to drop. That tells me that the market thinks OPECD cut production because they are banking on the recession as well, rather than it being purely geo-political support of Russia.
See this right here makes me stil think that everyone is full of shit and jacked up prices in order to recoup from the pandemic...
The reality is that we need unemployment to rise in order for inflation to get under control.
One thing that is interesting is that oil continues to drop. That tells me that the market thinks OPECD cut production because they are banking on the recession as well, rather than it being purely geo-political support of Russia.
See this right here makes me stil think that everyone is full of shit and jacked up prices in order to recoup from the pandemic...
Well here's the thing... prices rose due to energy price increases over the past year. That's legit. However, once prices rise, they will not fall until something drives them down. That something is lower consumer spending, which has the same domino effect but the other way. The problem we have right now is that because employment is so strong, people haven't changed their spending habits. So even though gas to move things is back to 'normal', companies aren't going to cut prices until spending slows. And I think the only way it slows is people truly tightening their belts because of loss of jobs, etc. Inflation is staying up with a 3.5% unemployment rate.
The reality is that we need unemployment to rise in order for inflation to get under control.
One thing that is interesting is that oil continues to drop. That tells me that the market thinks OPECD cut production because they are banking on the recession as well, rather than it being purely geo-political support of Russia.
See this right here makes me stil think that everyone is full of shit and jacked up prices in order to recoup from the pandemic...
Well here's the thing... prices rose due to energy price increases over the past year. That's legit. However, once prices rise, they will not fall until something drives them down. That something is lower consumer spending, which has the same domino effect but the other way. The problem we have right now is that because employment is so strong, people haven't changed their spending habits. So even though gas to move things is back to 'normal', companies aren't going to cut prices until spending slows. And I think the only way it slows is people truly tightening their belts because of loss of jobs, etc. Inflation is staying up with a 3.5% unemployment rate.
I swear every time I have reached a position of making more money in my working years, prices and inflation have risen. 9/11, 2008, Covid, Whatever the fuck is going on now.
Anyone else tightening their belts? The price of chicken has now reached the price of dumb...
Brandon oughta get his ass out there picking strawberries, dammit! Can’t sell what’s not picked, thus rising prices. Or, are those hipster strawberries? Everything hipster is more expensive.
Bay ridge. Not very hipster here honestly. I saw that price, shrugged and said no strawberries this week. Easy choice.
Well it's true. If any corp raises prices and the market absorbs it, then it would foolish to lower the prices. Why would they do that? The market equilibrium has moved up. They won't go down until the consumer stops buying and the equilibrium subsequently falls. That's why I said inflation is not going down until unemployment goes up.
Well it's true. If any corp raises prices and the market absorbs it, then it would foolish to lower the prices. Why would they do that? The market equilibrium has moved up. They won't go down until the consumer stops buying and the equilibrium subsequently falls. That's why I said inflation is not going down until unemployment goes up.
How does the consumer stop buying food and energy?
Anyone else tightening their belts? The price of chicken has now reached the price of dumb...
Brandon oughta get his ass out there picking strawberries, dammit! Can’t sell what’s not picked, thus rising prices. Or, are those hipster strawberries? Everything hipster is more expensive.
Anything in the city is a ripoff.
Especially if they believe that’s chicken. At least at my store, chicken looks a little different.
Well it's true. If any corp raises prices and the market absorbs it, then it would foolish to lower the prices. Why would they do that? The market equilibrium has moved up. They won't go down until the consumer stops buying and the equilibrium subsequently falls. That's why I said inflation is not going down until unemployment goes up.
How does the consumer stop buying food and energy?
They don't stop, but consumers reduce and change spending habits, less discretionary in nature. That's why the consumer spending numbers are so important monthly.
US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%
By PAUL WISEMAN
21 mins ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy grew at a 2.6% annual rate from July through September, snapping two straight quarters of contraction and overcoming high inflation and interest rates just as voting begins in midterm elections in which the economy's health has emerged as a paramount issue.
Thursday’s better-than-expected estimate from the Commerce Department showed that the nation’s gross domestic product — the broadest gauge of economic output — grew in the third quarter after having shrunk in the first half of 2022. Stronger exports and consumer spending, backed by a healthy job market, helped restore growth to the world’s biggest economy at a time when worries about a possible recession are rising.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, expanded at a 1.4% annual pace in the July-September quarter, down from a 2% rate from April through June. Last quarter's growth got a major boost from exports, which shot up at an annual pace of 14.4%. Government spending also helped: It rose at a 2.4% annual pace, the first such increase since early last year, with sharply higher defense spending leading the way.
Housing investment, though, plunged at a 26% annual pace, hammered by surging mortgage rates as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises borrowing costs to combat chronic inflation. It was the sixth straight quarterly drop in residential investment.
“Looking ahead, risks are to the downside, to consumption in particular, as households continue to face challenges from high prices and likely slower job growth going forward,’’ Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a research note.
With inflation still near a 40-year high, steady price spikes have been pressuring households across the country. At the same time, rising loan rates have derailed the housing market and are likely to inflict broader damage over time. The outlook for the world economy, too, grows bleaker the longer that Russia’s war against Ukraine drags on.
The latest GDP report comes as Americans, worried about inflation and the risk of a recession, have begun to vote in elections that will determine whether President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party retains control of Congress. Inflation has become a signature issue for Republican attacks on the Democrats’ stewardship of the economy.
Economists noted that the third-quarter gain in GDP can be traced entirely to the surge in exports, which added 2.7 percentage points to the economy's expansion. Export growth will be difficult to sustain as the global economy weakens and a strong U.S. dollar makes American products pricier in foreign markets.
Thursday's report offered some encouraging news on inflation. A price index in the GDP data rose at a 4.1% annual rate from July through September, down from 9% in the April-June period — less than economists had expected and the smallest increase since the final three months of 2020. That figure could raise hopes that the Fed might decide it can soon slow its rate hikes.
Last quarter’s U.S. economic growth reversed annual declines of 1.6% from January through March and 0.6% from April through June. Consecutive quarters of declining economic output are one informal definition of a recession. But most economists have said they believe the economy skirted a recession, noting the still-resilient job market and steady spending by consumers. Most of them have expressed concern, though, that a recession is likely next year as the Fed steadily tightens credit.
Preston Caldwell, head of U.S. economics for the financial services firm Morningstar, noted that the economy’s contraction in the first half of the year was caused largely by factors that don’t reflect its underlying health and so “very likely did not constitute a genuine economic slowdown.” He pointed, for example, to a drop in business inventories, a cyclical event that tends to reverse itself over time.
Higher borrowing costs have weakened the home market, in particular. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, just 3.14% a year ago, topped 7% this week for the first time since 2002, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Sales of existing homes have fallen for eight straight months. Construction of new homes is down nearly 8% from a year ago.
Still, the economy retains pockets of strength. One is the vitally important job market. Employers have added an average of 420,000 jobs a month this year, putting 2022 on track to be the second-best year for job creation (behind 2021) in Labor Department records going back to 1940. The unemployment rate was 3.5% last month, matching a half-century low.
Hiring has been decelerating, though. In September, the economy added 263,000 jobs — solid but the lowest total since April 2021.
International events are causing further concerns. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted trade and raised prices of energy and food, creating a crisis for poor countries. The International Monetary Fund, citing the war, this month downgraded its outlook for the world economy in 2023.
While the U.S. economy expanded, the European Central Bank predicted weakening growth in the 19 countries that use the euro currency the rest of this year and next, pointing to the uncertainty of Russia’s war in Ukraine that could keep food and energy prices high. While ECB President Christine Lagarde said the likelihood of recession had increased, the central bank on Thursday still announced its second big interest rate hike in a row to target inflation running at 9.9%.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
International events are causing further concerns. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted trade and raised prices of energy and food, creating a crisis for poor countries. The International Monetary Fund, citing the war, this month downgraded its outlook for the world economy in 2023.
We had a pandemic for 2 years that cut supply chains off and prices barely raised. Russia and Ukraine going at it though ruins the worlds economy...
This is why I think the inflated prices are bullshit and corporations making up for lost profits much like the oil producers are right now.
Oh and 7% interest rate on a house mortgage now? If you planned a flip it, that is not happening now as your home price most likely lost a good 10-20% on prices.
I can see the housing market taking a huge hit here and it will reset everyone's value and eliminating any borrowing off of it.
Wall Street rally marks first weekly win streak since summer
By STAN CHOE, DAMIAN J. TROISE and ALEX VEIGA
Today
Technology stocks led a broad rally on Wall Street Friday, capping another strong week for the market, as investors welcomed solid profits from Apple and other companies.
The S&P 500 rose 2.5% and posted its first back-to-back weekly gains since August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite climbed 2.9%. Smaller company stocks also gained ground, lifting the Russell 2000 index by 2.3%.
Apple's latest quarterly results showed the iPhone maker made even fatter profits during the summer than expected. Its shares rose 7.6% and led a rally in technology stocks that had largely been beat up a day earlier.
Intel jumped 10.7% after delivering much bigger profit than analysts forecasted even though it said it saw “worsening economic conditions.”
Gilead Sciences soared 12.9%, and T-Mobile US gained 7.4% after they also topped Wall Street's profit expectations.
Investors were also encouraged by a report on consumer spending that came a day after new data showing the economy grew modestly in the third quarter and inflation eased.
"You have an economy that almost refuses to keel over, an economy that at its core is resilient, but a the same time inflation is easing and that is what the Fed wants and that's obviously what the market wants,” said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial.
That's helped fuel hopes on Wall Street for a “pivot” by the Federal Reserve, where the central bank dials down the big interest-rate hikes that have shaken the market. Such a move could boost the market, though many analysts say such hopes may be overdone.
The central bank has been very clear about its plan to err on the side of going too far in order to tame inflation, which means the big gains on hopes of a pullback seem premature, said Liz Young, chief investment strategist at SoFi.
“This rally has now gotten a bit irrational and fragile at this level,” Young said.
The S&P 500 rose 93.76 points to 3,901.06. The Dow gained 828.52 points to 32,861.80. The Nasdaq rose 309.78 points to 11,102.45. The Russell 2000 gained 40.60 points to 1,846.92.
Many big U.S. companies have been reporting stronger earnings than expected, though the bag remains decidedly mixed.
Solid earnings on Friday helped to offset a 6.8% drop for Amazon, which offered a weaker-than-expected forecast for upcoming revenue. It was the latest Big Tech company to take a beating this week after reporting some discouraging trends. It's a sharp turnaround after the group dominated Wall Street for years with seemingly unstoppable growth.
Earlier in the week, Meta Platforms lost nearly a quarter of its value after reporting a second straight quarter of revenue decline amid falling advertising sales and stiff competition from TikTok. Microsoft and Google's parent company also reported slowdowns in key areas.
Such woes have created a sharp split on Wall Street this week, between lagging Big Tech stocks and the rest of the market. The Nasdaq, which is stuffed with high-growth tech stocks, notched a 2.2% gain this week. It would have had an even worse showing if not for Apple's boost from Friday. The Dow, meanwhile, jumped 5.7% for the week because it has less of an emphasis on tech.
Rising interest rates have hit Big Tech stock prices harder than the rest of the market, and the pressure increased Friday as yields climbed.
“The markets still seem to not want to believe that we might end up in a place where an earnings recession is possible,” Young said.
Data released in the morning showed the raises that U.S. workers got in wages and other compensation during the summer was in line with economists’ expectations. That should keep the Fed on track to keep hiking rates sharply in hopes of weakening the job market enough to undercut the nation’s high inflation. Other data showed the Fed's preferred measure of inflation remains very high, and U.S. households continue to spend more in the face of it.
The Fed is trying to starve inflation of the purchases made by households and businesses needed to keep it high. It's doing that by intentionally slowing the economy and the jobs market. The worry is that it could go too far and cause a sharp downturn.
The Fed has already raised its benchmark overnight interest rate up to a range of 3% to 3.25% up from virtually zero in March. The widespread expectation is for it to push through another increase that's triple the usual size next week, before it potentially makes a smaller increase in December. Higher rates not only slow the economy, they also hurt prices for stocks and other investments.
The yield on the two-year Treasury, which tends to track expectations for Fed action, rose to 4.42% from 4.28% late Thursday.
The 10-year yield, which helps set rates for mortgages and many other loans, climbed to 4.01% from 3.93%.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
International events are causing further concerns. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted trade and raised prices of energy and food, creating a crisis for poor countries. The International Monetary Fund, citing the war, this month downgraded its outlook for the world economy in 2023.
We had a pandemic for 2 years that cut supply chains off and prices barely raised. Russia and Ukraine going at it though ruins the worlds economy...
This is why I think the inflated prices are bullshit and corporations making up for lost profits much like the oil producers are right now.
Oh and 7% interest rate on a house mortgage now? If you planned a flip it, that is not happening now as your home price most likely lost a good 10-20% on prices.
I can see the housing market taking a huge hit here and it will reset everyone's value and eliminating any borrowing off of it.
Recession here we come.
You're thinking of economics in reverse. Prices didn't rise during the pandemic because demand was low. No one traveled, for business or pleasure. People didn't drive to work, etc. The economy restarted, the supply chain wasn't quite ready and Russia invaded, creating disruption in the oil supply. Once prices go up, they will NEVER go down until there is a reduction in demand, like a recession. So yeah, it's coming and that's the only way prices normalize.
International events are causing further concerns. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted trade and raised prices of energy and food, creating a crisis for poor countries. The International Monetary Fund, citing the war, this month downgraded its outlook for the world economy in 2023.
We had a pandemic for 2 years that cut supply chains off and prices barely raised. Russia and Ukraine going at it though ruins the worlds economy...
This is why I think the inflated prices are bullshit and corporations making up for lost profits much like the oil producers are right now.
Oh and 7% interest rate on a house mortgage now? If you planned a flip it, that is not happening now as your home price most likely lost a good 10-20% on prices.
I can see the housing market taking a huge hit here and it will reset everyone's value and eliminating any borrowing off of it.
Recession here we come.
You're thinking of economics in reverse. Prices didn't rise during the pandemic because demand was low. No one traveled, for business or pleasure. People didn't drive to work, etc. The economy restarted, the supply chain wasn't quite ready and Russia invaded, creating disruption in the oil supply. Once prices go up, they will NEVER go down until there is a reduction in demand, like a recession. So yeah, it's coming and that's the only way prices normalize.
You couldn't find shit on the shelves, the price of toilet paper did not go up... We actually spent more during the pandemic. The numbers support that.
Everyone cut production. Then of course everyone boycotts Russian oil and OPEC cuts production again causing prices again to increase.
I find it really interesting that we are producing record oil and not making a dent... A few other countries could do it too and offset Russia supply but I don't think anyone is really interested in that.
This global economy thing baffles me sometimes. The big fish really want to squeeze the life out of everyone else.
International events are causing further concerns. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted trade and raised prices of energy and food, creating a crisis for poor countries. The International Monetary Fund, citing the war, this month downgraded its outlook for the world economy in 2023.
We had a pandemic for 2 years that cut supply chains off and prices barely raised. Russia and Ukraine going at it though ruins the worlds economy...
This is why I think the inflated prices are bullshit and corporations making up for lost profits much like the oil producers are right now.
Oh and 7% interest rate on a house mortgage now? If you planned a flip it, that is not happening now as your home price most likely lost a good 10-20% on prices.
I can see the housing market taking a huge hit here and it will reset everyone's value and eliminating any borrowing off of it.
Recession here we come.
You're thinking of economics in reverse. Prices didn't rise during the pandemic because demand was low. No one traveled, for business or pleasure. People didn't drive to work, etc. The economy restarted, the supply chain wasn't quite ready and Russia invaded, creating disruption in the oil supply. Once prices go up, they will NEVER go down until there is a reduction in demand, like a recession. So yeah, it's coming and that's the only way prices normalize.
You couldn't find shit on the shelves, the price of toilet paper did not go up... We actually spent more during the pandemic. The numbers support that.
Everyone cut production. Then of course everyone boycotts Russian oil and OPEC cuts production again causing prices again to increase.
I find it really interesting that we are producing record oil and not making a dent... A few other countries could do it too and offset Russia supply but I don't think anyone is really interested in that.
This global economy thing baffles me sometimes. The big fish really want to squeeze the life out of everyone else.
There's the other thing too. At least with Oil/Gas. Governments and the world are trying to ween us off oil/gas. So investment in big projects like refineries aren't happening. A refinery costs 10's of billions and usually about 50 years to pay off. I can see why Oil companies are nervous to make that investment. Will it still make money in 20 or 30 years from now, when it's still not paid off yet.
I think it's been decades since new gas refineries were built in US or Canada. The US has now lost 5 or 6, so the ability to produce gas is shrinking, while demand is increasing.
If they didn't charge the higher prices for gas, would there have been enough to around. IE if demand at $4 a gallon is 2 billion gallons of gas, and demand at $6/gallon is 1.7 billion gallons, is there actually enough to meet demand at lower prices. I don't know the answer to that question.
But that's how I think of it. If there's scarcity of goods, and you charge below the equilibrium price you have shortages.
International events are causing further concerns. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted trade and raised prices of energy and food, creating a crisis for poor countries. The International Monetary Fund, citing the war, this month downgraded its outlook for the world economy in 2023.
We had a pandemic for 2 years that cut supply chains off and prices barely raised. Russia and Ukraine going at it though ruins the worlds economy...
This is why I think the inflated prices are bullshit and corporations making up for lost profits much like the oil producers are right now.
Oh and 7% interest rate on a house mortgage now? If you planned a flip it, that is not happening now as your home price most likely lost a good 10-20% on prices.
I can see the housing market taking a huge hit here and it will reset everyone's value and eliminating any borrowing off of it.
Recession here we come.
You're thinking of economics in reverse. Prices didn't rise during the pandemic because demand was low. No one traveled, for business or pleasure. People didn't drive to work, etc. The economy restarted, the supply chain wasn't quite ready and Russia invaded, creating disruption in the oil supply. Once prices go up, they will NEVER go down until there is a reduction in demand, like a recession. So yeah, it's coming and that's the only way prices normalize.
You couldn't find shit on the shelves, the price of toilet paper did not go up... We actually spent more during the pandemic. The numbers support that.
Everyone cut production. Then of course everyone boycotts Russian oil and OPEC cuts production again causing prices again to increase.
I find it really interesting that we are producing record oil and not making a dent... A few other countries could do it too and offset Russia supply but I don't think anyone is really interested in that.
This global economy thing baffles me sometimes. The big fish really want to squeeze the life out of everyone else.
There's the other thing too. At least with Oil/Gas. Governments and the world are trying to ween us off oil/gas. So investment in big projects like refineries aren't happening. A refinery costs 10's of billions and usually about 50 years to pay off. I can see why Oil companies are nervous to make that investment. Will it still make money in 20 or 30 years from now, when it's still not paid off yet.
I think it's been decades since new gas refineries were built in US or Canada. The US has now lost 5 or 6, so the ability to produce gas is shrinking, while demand is increasing.
If they didn't charge the higher prices for gas, would there have been enough to around. IE if demand at $4 a gallon is 2 billion gallons of gas, and demand at $6/gallon is 1.7 billion gallons, is there actually enough to meet demand at lower prices. I don't know the answer to that question.
But that's how I think of it. If there's scarcity of goods, and you charge below the equilibrium price you have shortages.
So the refineries is a big deal too. Yes a bunch not making money closed. New ones are made but older ones closed or changed over. Why would you build them though? If it takes 50 years to pay one off, I find that hard to believe, why even make one, then I see not investing in that and focusing money into newer tech.
I don't think the corporations give a shit, they'll make their money no matter what they do, that's why they are in business.
Comments
Nick is that Stop n Shop? City of Long Island?
Bay Ridge Brooklyn.
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
One thing that is interesting is that oil continues to drop. That tells me that the market thinks OPECD cut production because they are banking on the recession as well, rather than it being purely geo-political support of Russia.
There are no kings inside the gates of eden
Bernie seems to think the same way I do.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy grew at a 2.6% annual rate from July through September, snapping two straight quarters of contraction and overcoming high inflation and interest rates just as voting begins in midterm elections in which the economy's health has emerged as a paramount issue.
Thursday’s better-than-expected estimate from the Commerce Department showed that the nation’s gross domestic product — the broadest gauge of economic output — grew in the third quarter after having shrunk in the first half of 2022. Stronger exports and consumer spending, backed by a healthy job market, helped restore growth to the world’s biggest economy at a time when worries about a possible recession are rising.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, expanded at a 1.4% annual pace in the July-September quarter, down from a 2% rate from April through June. Last quarter's growth got a major boost from exports, which shot up at an annual pace of 14.4%. Government spending also helped: It rose at a 2.4% annual pace, the first such increase since early last year, with sharply higher defense spending leading the way.
Housing investment, though, plunged at a 26% annual pace, hammered by surging mortgage rates as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises borrowing costs to combat chronic inflation. It was the sixth straight quarterly drop in residential investment.
Overall, the outlook for the overall economy has darkened. The Fed has raised interest rates five times this year and is set to do so again next week and in December. Chair Jerome Powell has warned that the Fed’s hikes will bring “pain” in the form of higher unemployment and possibly a recession.
“Looking ahead, risks are to the downside, to consumption in particular, as households continue to face challenges from high prices and likely slower job growth going forward,’’ Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a research note.
With inflation still near a 40-year high, steady price spikes have been pressuring households across the country. At the same time, rising loan rates have derailed the housing market and are likely to inflict broader damage over time. The outlook for the world economy, too, grows bleaker the longer that Russia’s war against Ukraine drags on.
The latest GDP report comes as Americans, worried about inflation and the risk of a recession, have begun to vote in elections that will determine whether President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party retains control of Congress. Inflation has become a signature issue for Republican attacks on the Democrats’ stewardship of the economy.
Economists noted that the third-quarter gain in GDP can be traced entirely to the surge in exports, which added 2.7 percentage points to the economy's expansion. Export growth will be difficult to sustain as the global economy weakens and a strong U.S. dollar makes American products pricier in foreign markets.
Thursday's report offered some encouraging news on inflation. A price index in the GDP data rose at a 4.1% annual rate from July through September, down from 9% in the April-June period — less than economists had expected and the smallest increase since the final three months of 2020. That figure could raise hopes that the Fed might decide it can soon slow its rate hikes.
Last quarter’s U.S. economic growth reversed annual declines of 1.6% from January through March and 0.6% from April through June. Consecutive quarters of declining economic output are one informal definition of a recession. But most economists have said they believe the economy skirted a recession, noting the still-resilient job market and steady spending by consumers. Most of them have expressed concern, though, that a recession is likely next year as the Fed steadily tightens credit.
Preston Caldwell, head of U.S. economics for the financial services firm Morningstar, noted that the economy’s contraction in the first half of the year was caused largely by factors that don’t reflect its underlying health and so “very likely did not constitute a genuine economic slowdown.” He pointed, for example, to a drop in business inventories, a cyclical event that tends to reverse itself over time.
Higher borrowing costs have weakened the home market, in particular. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, just 3.14% a year ago, topped 7% this week for the first time since 2002, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Sales of existing homes have fallen for eight straight months. Construction of new homes is down nearly 8% from a year ago.
Still, the economy retains pockets of strength. One is the vitally important job market. Employers have added an average of 420,000 jobs a month this year, putting 2022 on track to be the second-best year for job creation (behind 2021) in Labor Department records going back to 1940. The unemployment rate was 3.5% last month, matching a half-century low.
Hiring has been decelerating, though. In September, the economy added 263,000 jobs — solid but the lowest total since April 2021.
International events are causing further concerns. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted trade and raised prices of energy and food, creating a crisis for poor countries. The International Monetary Fund, citing the war, this month downgraded its outlook for the world economy in 2023.
While the U.S. economy expanded, the European Central Bank predicted weakening growth in the 19 countries that use the euro currency the rest of this year and next, pointing to the uncertainty of Russia’s war in Ukraine that could keep food and energy prices high. While ECB President Christine Lagarde said the likelihood of recession had increased, the central bank on Thursday still announced its second big interest rate hike in a row to target inflation running at 9.9%.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
We had a pandemic for 2 years that cut supply chains off and prices barely raised. Russia and Ukraine going at it though ruins the worlds economy...
This is why I think the inflated prices are bullshit and corporations making up for lost profits much like the oil producers are right now.
Oh and 7% interest rate on a house mortgage now? If you planned a flip it, that is not happening now as your home price most likely lost a good 10-20% on prices.
I can see the housing market taking a huge hit here and it will reset everyone's value and eliminating any borrowing off of it.
Recession here we come.
Technology stocks led a broad rally on Wall Street Friday, capping another strong week for the market, as investors welcomed solid profits from Apple and other companies.
The S&P 500 rose 2.5% and posted its first back-to-back weekly gains since August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite climbed 2.9%. Smaller company stocks also gained ground, lifting the Russell 2000 index by 2.3%.
Apple's latest quarterly results showed the iPhone maker made even fatter profits during the summer than expected. Its shares rose 7.6% and led a rally in technology stocks that had largely been beat up a day earlier.
Intel jumped 10.7% after delivering much bigger profit than analysts forecasted even though it said it saw “worsening economic conditions.”
Gilead Sciences soared 12.9%, and T-Mobile US gained 7.4% after they also topped Wall Street's profit expectations.
Investors were also encouraged by a report on consumer spending that came a day after new data showing the economy grew modestly in the third quarter and inflation eased.
"You have an economy that almost refuses to keel over, an economy that at its core is resilient, but a the same time inflation is easing and that is what the Fed wants and that's obviously what the market wants,” said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial.
INFLATION
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That's helped fuel hopes on Wall Street for a “pivot” by the Federal Reserve, where the central bank dials down the big interest-rate hikes that have shaken the market. Such a move could boost the market, though many analysts say such hopes may be overdone.
The central bank has been very clear about its plan to err on the side of going too far in order to tame inflation, which means the big gains on hopes of a pullback seem premature, said Liz Young, chief investment strategist at SoFi.
“This rally has now gotten a bit irrational and fragile at this level,” Young said.
The S&P 500 rose 93.76 points to 3,901.06. The Dow gained 828.52 points to 32,861.80. The Nasdaq rose 309.78 points to 11,102.45. The Russell 2000 gained 40.60 points to 1,846.92.
Many big U.S. companies have been reporting stronger earnings than expected, though the bag remains decidedly mixed.
Solid earnings on Friday helped to offset a 6.8% drop for Amazon, which offered a weaker-than-expected forecast for upcoming revenue. It was the latest Big Tech company to take a beating this week after reporting some discouraging trends. It's a sharp turnaround after the group dominated Wall Street for years with seemingly unstoppable growth.
Earlier in the week, Meta Platforms lost nearly a quarter of its value after reporting a second straight quarter of revenue decline amid falling advertising sales and stiff competition from TikTok. Microsoft and Google's parent company also reported slowdowns in key areas.
Such woes have created a sharp split on Wall Street this week, between lagging Big Tech stocks and the rest of the market. The Nasdaq, which is stuffed with high-growth tech stocks, notched a 2.2% gain this week. It would have had an even worse showing if not for Apple's boost from Friday. The Dow, meanwhile, jumped 5.7% for the week because it has less of an emphasis on tech.
Rising interest rates have hit Big Tech stock prices harder than the rest of the market, and the pressure increased Friday as yields climbed.
“The markets still seem to not want to believe that we might end up in a place where an earnings recession is possible,” Young said.
Data released in the morning showed the raises that U.S. workers got in wages and other compensation during the summer was in line with economists’ expectations. That should keep the Fed on track to keep hiking rates sharply in hopes of weakening the job market enough to undercut the nation’s high inflation. Other data showed the Fed's preferred measure of inflation remains very high, and U.S. households continue to spend more in the face of it.
The Fed is trying to starve inflation of the purchases made by households and businesses needed to keep it high. It's doing that by intentionally slowing the economy and the jobs market. The worry is that it could go too far and cause a sharp downturn.
The Fed has already raised its benchmark overnight interest rate up to a range of 3% to 3.25% up from virtually zero in March. The widespread expectation is for it to push through another increase that's triple the usual size next week, before it potentially makes a smaller increase in December. Higher rates not only slow the economy, they also hurt prices for stocks and other investments.
The yield on the two-year Treasury, which tends to track expectations for Fed action, rose to 4.42% from 4.28% late Thursday.
The 10-year yield, which helps set rates for mortgages and many other loans, climbed to 4.01% from 3.93%.
Trading in Twitter's stock has ended, after Elon Musk took control of the company following a lengthy legal battle.
___
Associated Press writers Elaine Kurtenbach, Matt Ott and Mari Yamaguchi contributed.
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you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
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Everyone cut production. Then of course everyone boycotts Russian oil and OPEC cuts production again causing prices again to increase.
I find it really interesting that we are producing record oil and not making a dent... A few other countries could do it too and offset Russia supply but I don't think anyone is really interested in that.
This global economy thing baffles me sometimes. The big fish really want to squeeze the life out of everyone else.
I don't think the corporations give a shit, they'll make their money no matter what they do, that's why they are in business.
So something else that is wild to me is that we are producing/refining only 1 million barrels less than peak a few years ago. That isn't that much.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_cap1_dcu_nus_a.htm