Hello to the Steady community. First, I want to thank you for your passionate engagement. Comments on our last post, “One Man,” were prolific — some of the most ever for a Steady post. Naturally, I encourage more. While most comments were positive, a few of you asked why we chose to give so much copy to former President Trump’s failures rather than highlight President Biden’s accomplishments.
In response, please allow me to say that we never take the position that we are right all of the time. We make mistakes. Journalism is a humbling craft. With that always in mind, we do the best we can.
But please know that any presidential candidate facing 91 felony indictments is going to get a lot of my attention. To ignore his behavior is to normalize it.
That being said, it’s no secret that President Biden has struggled to gain traction for his political and legislative accomplishments. To understand why, let’s start at the very beginning.
The transition from one presidential administration to another is often judged by what kind of country the outgoing president leaves for his successor. When President Obama left office in January 2017, he handed incoming President Trump the reins of a country with a thriving economy. Four years later, President Biden took over a country whose economy was in questionable if not outright dangerous condition. By any reasonable analysis, America overall was in the worst shape it had been in for generations: economically, physically and psychologically. Yes, we were coming out of a pandemic, but one that Trump exacerbated by gross mismanagement, making President Biden’s job even harder.
From day one, Biden was behind. But unlike Trump, he had a plan, an agenda that was more than simply undoing his predecessor’s policies. Biden is an old-school Democratic politician who believes it is the government’s job to help Americans. He isn’t flashy, and neither are his policy initiatives. But many have gotten the job done. For example, you probably don’t know about the thousands of infrastructure projects launched in the last three years that are currently rebuilding America. Clean water and road repair often don’t get the attention they deserve.
In January 2021, unemployment was at 6.4% — almost double what it is today. The employment rate was a paltry 57.4%, lower than during the recession of 2008. Consumption of goods and services was way down across the board. Yes, gas prices were low, but any Econ 101 student knows that is because demand was down during the pandemic. Few of us could go anywhere. Trump, of course, took credit for this slight positive and blamed Biden for the rise in gasoline prices when people started driving and flying again. Many economists say the subsequent surge in gas prices was made worse by a Trump-brokered deal to cut production during the pandemic. Then demand returned, and production couldn’t get going fast enough.
By any measure, Biden’s first two years in office were some of the most productive in half a century. He guided the country out of a debilitating pandemic by funding testing, treatment, and a coordinated vaccination plan. He got the last U.S. troops out of Afghanistan. (That should and could have been done less chaotically. But at least it got done.) He passed massive spending bills that have transformed the social safety net: bringing down inflation, fixing the country’s crumbling infrastructure, getting back on track to curtail climate change, and forgiving student loan debt. He reauthorized the Violence Against Women Act and even got (very) modest gun reform through Congress.
Admittedly, the second half of his term has not been as productive. That is in large part because he has been stymied by a fractured, Republican-led (I use that term loosely) House of Representatives. But the work he was able to do during the first two years has paid off. The recession so many were predicting hasn’t come to pass. Instead, the economy is booming, driven by high consumer spending. According to The Washington Post, “Government policy played an important role in supporting the economy last year. The Biden administration’s efforts to fund new infrastructure and clean energy projects have created new jobs and spurred $640 billion in private investments around the country.” The child poverty rate is down. Inflation is in check.
We return to the question: Why isn’t Biden getting more credit, or any at all? Why do polls show that many Americans don’t know about his successes, and when told, are angry they didn’t know?
One reason is that grocery prices and the cost of home buying, about which people are reminded daily, remain high. Another is that immigration remains a high-profile, dangerous mess, and Biden has been ineffective in dealing with it.
But it is also true that we live in a clickbait, “gotcha” world where screaming and riling people up has become the norm, the expectation. Trump is cash money for media companies. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying. And good old-fashioned governing isn’t as interesting to audiences. It doesn’t break through the noise — and there is a lot of noise. All of which helps Trump and hurts Biden.
None of this necessarily means Biden’s reelection chances are doomed. There is still a long way to go, and much is unpredictable. What we’ve tried to do with this post is perhaps add a little perspective about the campaign to this point.
Here at Steady, we hope we can help keep the conversation going about what is real and what is bluster.
Please feel free to join in the conversation below.
The Steady newsletter is supported by the Steady community. Please consider subscribing if you aren’t already a member.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
It’s difficult to tell who was more surprised by President Biden’s State of the Union performance Thursday night: Democrats in the chamber, whose emotions ranged from relieved to almost giddy. Or Republicans, who have been selling the president as doddering, decrepit, and unfit, watching that narrative evaporate. In what was perhaps the most important speech of his political career, Biden showed he was not just alive and well, but up to the challenge of a second term.
Sure, the health of either candidate could change, but for at least this political moment, President Biden came across as hale, fit, and ready.
For those watching at home, it was a chance to counter an image perpetrated by Republicans and many in the media that the president is not mentally or physically qualified for a second term. For those who hadn’t seen Biden speak in a while, or only on social media clips designed to make him look old, it was a first-rate oration, in both tone and substance.
For the 60-plus minute speech, Biden was focused, sharp, energetic, and at times funny. He was even willing to engage Republicans who heckled him — a moment he handled deftly, despite being nudged off script. House Speaker Mike Johnson had privately asked for decorum from his colleagues. He didn’t get it. Instead, several Republicans verbally taunted the president, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who showed up in Trump campaign garb.
At the beginning of the speech, when the television audience was at its largest, Biden took dead aim at his opponent without ever mentioning his name. He hammered home what a second Trump administration would mean to democracy.
“My purpose tonight is to wake up the Congress and alert the American people that this is no ordinary moment either. Not since President Lincoln and the Civil War have freedom and democracy been under assault at home as they are today.”
Biden also called out his opponent for cozying up to the Russians.
“Wasn’t long ago when a Republican president named Ronald Reagan thundered, ‘Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.’ Now … now my predecessor, a former Republican president, tells Putin, quote, ‘Do whatever the hell you want.’ That’s a quote. A former president actually said that, bowing down to a Russian leader. I think it’s outrageous, it’s dangerous, and it’s unacceptable.”
You know what else many people found to be outrageous? The reaction of Republicans who sat on their hands when Biden spoke those words. Or maybe you think it’s not that surprising.
There is no doubt this was a campaign speech wrapped up as a State of the Union address. Biden was criticized by the right for politicizing it. But as we have written before, we are living in a time when nearly everything seems political.
Biden is a natural, highly experienced campaigner, and he seemed to revel in the moment. And the public responded. The president’s campaign reported the speech accounted for the largest fundraising haul since Biden declared he was running for reelection.
“I know I may not look like it, but I’ve been around a while. And when you get to my age, certain things become clearer than ever before. My lifetime has taught me to embrace freedom and democracy. A future based on the core values that have defined America: Honesty. Decency. Dignity. Equality. To respect everyone. To give everyone a fair shot. To give hate no safe harbor."
A post-speech flash poll by CNN found a sizable shift in the electorate. After the address, 62 percent of people polled said Biden’s policies will move the country in the right direction. Prior to the speech, that number was just 45 percent.
A caveat, please: I have watched at least the last 60 State of the Union addresses. Their impact on the public consciousness is often short-lived. How this will apply to the oldest presidential candidate in history defying expectations, we shall see.
On Friday, Biden was back on the campaign trail in Pennsylvania with more positive economic news to emphasize. The U.S. added 275,000 jobs in February. The Biden campaign, which has a lot more cash on hand than Trump, announced a big ad buy, $30 million, in swing states.
Speaking of money, today, Lara Trump, daughter-in-law of the former president, was elected co-chair of the Republican National Committee. The former president, who currently owes almost half a billion dollars in legal judgments and more in ensuing legal fees, has been using donor money from the RNC to pay his battalion of lawyers. On Friday, Trump posted a $91.6 million bond to appeal the judgment in the case of E. Jean Carroll, the woman he was found to have sexually abused and then defamed.
With that in mind, one line from last night’s speech seemed to be meant for an audience of one. “You can’t love your country only when you win.”
Democrats would love for this president to earn the title “Fighting Joe Biden.” To fully earn that he must come from behind and win in November.
To support my team’s efforts to protect our democracy through the power of independent journalism, please consider joining as a paid subscriber. It keeps Steady sustainable and available to all.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
It’s difficult to tell who was more surprised by President Biden’s State of the Union performance Thursday night: Democrats in the chamber, whose emotions ranged from relieved to almost giddy. Or Republicans, who have been selling the president as doddering, decrepit, and unfit, watching that narrative evaporate. In what was perhaps the most important speech of his political career, Biden showed he was not just alive and well, but up to the challenge of a second term.
Sure, the health of either candidate could change, but for at least this political moment, President Biden came across as hale, fit, and ready.
For those watching at home, it was a chance to counter an image perpetrated by Republicans and many in the media that the president is not mentally or physically qualified for a second term. For those who hadn’t seen Biden speak in a while, or only on social media clips designed to make him look old, it was a first-rate oration, in both tone and substance.
For the 60-plus minute speech, Biden was focused, sharp, energetic, and at times funny. He was even willing to engage Republicans who heckled him — a moment he handled deftly, despite being nudged off script. House Speaker Mike Johnson had privately asked for decorum from his colleagues. He didn’t get it. Instead, several Republicans verbally taunted the president, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who showed up in Trump campaign garb.
At the beginning of the speech, when the television audience was at its largest, Biden took dead aim at his opponent without ever mentioning his name. He hammered home what a second Trump administration would mean to democracy.
“My purpose tonight is to wake up the Congress and alert the American people that this is no ordinary moment either. Not since President Lincoln and the Civil War have freedom and democracy been under assault at home as they are today.”
Biden also called out his opponent for cozying up to the Russians.
“Wasn’t long ago when a Republican president named Ronald Reagan thundered, ‘Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.’ Now … now my predecessor, a former Republican president, tells Putin, quote, ‘Do whatever the hell you want.’ That’s a quote. A former president actually said that, bowing down to a Russian leader. I think it’s outrageous, it’s dangerous, and it’s unacceptable.”
You know what else many people found to be outrageous? The reaction of Republicans who sat on their hands when Biden spoke those words. Or maybe you think it’s not that surprising.
There is no doubt this was a campaign speech wrapped up as a State of the Union address. Biden was criticized by the right for politicizing it. But as we have written before, we are living in a time when nearly everything seems political.
Biden is a natural, highly experienced campaigner, and he seemed to revel in the moment. And the public responded. The president’s campaign reported the speech accounted for the largest fundraising haul since Biden declared he was running for reelection.
“I know I may not look like it, but I’ve been around a while. And when you get to my age, certain things become clearer than ever before. My lifetime has taught me to embrace freedom and democracy. A future based on the core values that have defined America: Honesty. Decency. Dignity. Equality. To respect everyone. To give everyone a fair shot. To give hate no safe harbor."
A post-speech flash poll by CNN found a sizable shift in the electorate. After the address, 62 percent of people polled said Biden’s policies will move the country in the right direction. Prior to the speech, that number was just 45 percent.
A caveat, please: I have watched at least the last 60 State of the Union addresses. Their impact on the public consciousness is often short-lived. How this will apply to the oldest presidential candidate in history defying expectations, we shall see.
On Friday, Biden was back on the campaign trail in Pennsylvania with more positive economic news to emphasize. The U.S. added 275,000 jobs in February. The Biden campaign, which has a lot more cash on hand than Trump, announced a big ad buy, $30 million, in swing states.
Speaking of money, today, Lara Trump, daughter-in-law of the former president, was elected co-chair of the Republican National Committee. The former president, who currently owes almost half a billion dollars in legal judgments and more in ensuing legal fees, has been using donor money from the RNC to pay his battalion of lawyers. On Friday, Trump posted a $91.6 million bond to appeal the judgment in the case of E. Jean Carroll, the woman he was found to have sexually abused and then defamed.
With that in mind, one line from last night’s speech seemed to be meant for an audience of one. “You can’t love your country only when you win.”
Democrats would love for this president to earn the title “Fighting Joe Biden.” To fully earn that he must come from behind and win in November.
To support my team’s efforts to protect our democracy through the power of independent journalism, please consider joining as a paid subscriber. It keeps Steady sustainable and available to all.
Donald Trump, the self-proclaimed billionaire, cannot secure a bond to cover a $454 million judgment against him. This could mean the seizure of any number of his properties as soon as next week.
One can imagine how humiliating this is for the Republican frontrunner, a man who wears his net worth on his sleeve and whose self-worth is intrinsically tied to money.
Trump is appealing the February 16 judgment against him for lying about and inflating the value of his properties to lenders and insurance companies. He must either give the full amount to the court to be held in escrow or get a bond. In a filing with the New York appellate court today, his attorneys admitted Trump faces “insurmountable difficulties” in obtaining the bond. A whopping 30 surety companies have rejected his requests. The lawyers described his chances of success as “a practical impossibility.”
The appellate court has been asked to pause the judgment or significantly reduce it to $100 million. If it fails to rule by March 25, New York State Attorney General Letitia James can start seizing Trump’s properties immediately.
You may wonder why Trump does not just use his vast real estate holdings, like Trump Tower and Mar-a-Lago, as collateral. Bond companies prefer more liquid assets, like securities, of which he does not have enough — especially for a bond of this size. And it’s not only $454 million. If he could get the bond, it would be 120% of the $454 million plus 2% interest for two years upfront, so closer to $600 million.
This is on top of the $91.6 million bond he was able to secure to cover the judgment in the E. Jean Carroll defamation case, which he is also appealing.
For the first time in more than six months, presidential tracking polls show President Biden and Trump in a dead heat. Trump had been leading since September.
Credit: The Economist, March 18, 2024
So why the sudden Biden surge? The easiest explanation may be that “crazy” is finally catching up to Trump.
Since he spends most of the workweek defending himself in courts around the country, Trump’s campaigning has been limited to weekend rallies. Saturday night found him in Ohio, where he spewed this doozy: “Now if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the whole — that’s gonna be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country.” He seemed to have gone off script, as he had just been talking about Chinese competition in the car industry.
He also now calls the January 6 insurrectionists who are currently serving prison time “hostages.” And he said he would pardon all of them on day one of his second term. Imagine hundreds of convicted insurrectionists suddenly being freed. A group of Americans polled by CBS News didn’t think much of the idea. The electorate doesn’t embrace the former president's approval of political violence and those who perpetrate it.
Sixty-two percent of all voters oppose the pardons, according to a CBS News poll. A Data for Progress poll shows that 57% of independents are less likely to vote for a candidate who approves of the January 6 attacks. Even a majority of self-described MAGA Republicans — 57% — don’t support the conduct of the rioters, according to CBS News.
Now, once you have read and perhaps mentally digested all of the above, it’s time to evoke our mantra: steady. Polls are at most simply a moment’s snapshot of how people say they are thinking. It’s usually a mistake to make too much of them.
Trump’s money problems appear to be real, and that’s not a good sign for him. But court delays and loans could grant him some relief yet. And who knows how that will affect the election, if at all.
Trump looks politically weaker right now, but that is not necessarily a permanent condition. With the election still months away, we need to remind ourselves that everyone who cares about the country needs to pay attention and get involved. Politics is incremental, and electorates are fickle. Though President Biden will need more to win, momentum appears to have moved in his direction, at least for the moment.
If you support independent journalism bringing you critical information to protect our democracy, please consider upgrading as a supporting member. It allows me to keep Steady sustainable and free for those who cannot afford it, especially in an election season where we need everyone to see it. Thank you.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Who’s Minding Musk? Nobody, and that’s a problem DAN RATHER AND TEAM STEADY AUG 5
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Credit: Getty Images Imagine having the ability to instantly lob information, true or not, to millions of people across the globe. Elon Musk, the owner of X (formerly known as Twitter), has that ability. One would hope that with that power would come responsibility. In a perfect world, the owners of social media companies would be fair-minded and objective. Alas.
For all the talk of social media reform after 2016 and the Facebook fiasco when misinformation ran rampant across that platform, it now appears that Musk has decided not only to support the Republican candidate for president but to personally help spread misinformation about voting and the election.
Plus, in 2024, Musk has more powerful tools than Facebook ever imagined eight years ago. Artificial intelligence is coming into its own, and the dangers it presents to our democracy are profound.
Musk has recently released an AI chatbot, which, if you don’t know, is basically a computer that can simulate a human conversation. Musk named his Grok, and within hours of President Biden bowing out of the race, it created a post that read: “The ballot deadline has passed for several states for the 2024 election,” naming nine states: Alabama, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Washington. The message suggested that Kamala Harris had missed the filing deadline to get on the ballot in those states.
This is 100% false and was shared with millions of users on X.
Secretaries of state in five of the nine states have written a letter to Musk urging him to “immediately implement changes” to Grok. I’m not holding my breath.
When Grok was launched late last year, Musk called it the anti-“woke” chatbot — his characterization. He said he wanted the AI search assistant to “answer spicy questions that are rejected by most other AI systems.” Those other AI systems, powered by OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft, are specifically designed to avoid controversial topics.
But it’s not just Grok that is pushing out lies. Musk himself reposted a manipulated version of Harris’s first campaign video. It featured an altered voice track that sounds just like Harris. In it “she” says she didn’t “know the first thing about running the country” and that she is the “ultimate diversity hire.” Musk tagged the video as “amazing” and didn’t include a disclaimer. His post has garnered 135 million views, so far. It has not been taken down.
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Talk about strange bedfellows. Over the years, there has been no love lost between Musk and Donald Trump. As recently as May, Trump was a vociferous and vocal proponent of the oil and gas industry. Remember the Mar-a-Lago get-together where he promised to end Biden’s green energy initiatives, including his electric vehicle policies, in exchange for $1 billion in campaign contributions?
Apparently Musk and Trump have mended some pretty tall fences. For his part, Musk has promised lots of cash to the pro-Trump America PAC. Maybe Trump didn’t get what he asked for from his oil and gas friends.
In exchange, Trump now thinks electric vehicles are “incredible.” What a shocker. At a rally in Georgia on Sunday, Trump told his supporters, “I’m for electric cars. I have to be because, you know, Elon endorsed me very strongly. So, I have no choice.”
The Musk-backed America PAC is already helping Trump in swing states. The PAC’s website is tricking people into sharing personal data. The site promises to help people register to vote, but when a user enters a zip code in a battleground state, after also giving their name and phone number, they are directed to a page that says “thank you.” They are then asked to “complete the form below.” But there is no form. And there is no redirection to a voter registration site.
The Michigan secretary of state is investigating Musk and the PAC. “Every citizen should know exactly how their personal information is being used by PACs, especially if an entity is claiming it will help people register to vote in Michigan or any other state,” a spokeswoman for the secretary of state’s office said.
In 2022, President Barack Obama gave a speech at Stanford University about the dangers of artificial intelligence, foreseeing that “regulation has to be part of the answer” to combating online disinformation. His closing thought is a reminder that AI can be a help as well as a hindrance — but that it can’t exist in a vacuum.
“The internet is a tool. Social media is a tool. At the end of the day, tools don’t control us. We control them. And we can remake them. It’s up to each of us to decide what we value and then use the tools we’ve been given to advance those values,” Obama said.
For all intents and purposes, social media has become our town square — but unlike most communities, it has no sheriff, and it very much needs one. In his or her absence it is up to us, social media’s users, to be wary consumers.
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Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
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Quietly Fixing the Mess
Hello to the Steady community. First, I want to thank you for your passionate engagement. Comments on our last post, “One Man,” were prolific — some of the most ever for a Steady post. Naturally, I encourage more. While most comments were positive, a few of you asked why we chose to give so much copy to former President Trump’s failures rather than highlight President Biden’s accomplishments.
In response, please allow me to say that we never take the position that we are right all of the time. We make mistakes. Journalism is a humbling craft. With that always in mind, we do the best we can.
But please know that any presidential candidate facing 91 felony indictments is going to get a lot of my attention. To ignore his behavior is to normalize it.
That being said, it’s no secret that President Biden has struggled to gain traction for his political and legislative accomplishments. To understand why, let’s start at the very beginning.
The transition from one presidential administration to another is often judged by what kind of country the outgoing president leaves for his successor. When President Obama left office in January 2017, he handed incoming President Trump the reins of a country with a thriving economy. Four years later, President Biden took over a country whose economy was in questionable if not outright dangerous condition. By any reasonable analysis, America overall was in the worst shape it had been in for generations: economically, physically and psychologically. Yes, we were coming out of a pandemic, but one that Trump exacerbated by gross mismanagement, making President Biden’s job even harder.
From day one, Biden was behind. But unlike Trump, he had a plan, an agenda that was more than simply undoing his predecessor’s policies. Biden is an old-school Democratic politician who believes it is the government’s job to help Americans. He isn’t flashy, and neither are his policy initiatives. But many have gotten the job done. For example, you probably don’t know about the thousands of infrastructure projects launched in the last three years that are currently rebuilding America. Clean water and road repair often don’t get the attention they deserve.
In January 2021, unemployment was at 6.4% — almost double what it is today. The employment rate was a paltry 57.4%, lower than during the recession of 2008. Consumption of goods and services was way down across the board. Yes, gas prices were low, but any Econ 101 student knows that is because demand was down during the pandemic. Few of us could go anywhere. Trump, of course, took credit for this slight positive and blamed Biden for the rise in gasoline prices when people started driving and flying again. Many economists say the subsequent surge in gas prices was made worse by a Trump-brokered deal to cut production during the pandemic. Then demand returned, and production couldn’t get going fast enough.
By any measure, Biden’s first two years in office were some of the most productive in half a century. He guided the country out of a debilitating pandemic by funding testing, treatment, and a coordinated vaccination plan. He got the last U.S. troops out of Afghanistan. (That should and could have been done less chaotically. But at least it got done.) He passed massive spending bills that have transformed the social safety net: bringing down inflation, fixing the country’s crumbling infrastructure, getting back on track to curtail climate change, and forgiving student loan debt. He reauthorized the Violence Against Women Act and even got (very) modest gun reform through Congress.
Admittedly, the second half of his term has not been as productive. That is in large part because he has been stymied by a fractured, Republican-led (I use that term loosely) House of Representatives. But the work he was able to do during the first two years has paid off. The recession so many were predicting hasn’t come to pass. Instead, the economy is booming, driven by high consumer spending. According to The Washington Post, “Government policy played an important role in supporting the economy last year. The Biden administration’s efforts to fund new infrastructure and clean energy projects have created new jobs and spurred $640 billion in private investments around the country.” The child poverty rate is down. Inflation is in check.
We return to the question: Why isn’t Biden getting more credit, or any at all? Why do polls show that many Americans don’t know about his successes, and when told, are angry they didn’t know?
One reason is that grocery prices and the cost of home buying, about which people are reminded daily, remain high. Another is that immigration remains a high-profile, dangerous mess, and Biden has been ineffective in dealing with it.
But it is also true that we live in a clickbait, “gotcha” world where screaming and riling people up has become the norm, the expectation. Trump is cash money for media companies. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying. And good old-fashioned governing isn’t as interesting to audiences. It doesn’t break through the noise — and there is a lot of noise. All of which helps Trump and hurts Biden.
None of this necessarily means Biden’s reelection chances are doomed. There is still a long way to go, and much is unpredictable. What we’ve tried to do with this post is perhaps add a little perspective about the campaign to this point.
Here at Steady, we hope we can help keep the conversation going about what is real and what is bluster.
Please feel free to join in the conversation below.
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Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
President Biden Upends the GOP Narrative
How he got the job done
It’s difficult to tell who was more surprised by President Biden’s State of the Union performance Thursday night: Democrats in the chamber, whose emotions ranged from relieved to almost giddy. Or Republicans, who have been selling the president as doddering, decrepit, and unfit, watching that narrative evaporate. In what was perhaps the most important speech of his political career, Biden showed he was not just alive and well, but up to the challenge of a second term.
Sure, the health of either candidate could change, but for at least this political moment, President Biden came across as hale, fit, and ready.
For those watching at home, it was a chance to counter an image perpetrated by Republicans and many in the media that the president is not mentally or physically qualified for a second term. For those who hadn’t seen Biden speak in a while, or only on social media clips designed to make him look old, it was a first-rate oration, in both tone and substance.
For the 60-plus minute speech, Biden was focused, sharp, energetic, and at times funny. He was even willing to engage Republicans who heckled him — a moment he handled deftly, despite being nudged off script. House Speaker Mike Johnson had privately asked for decorum from his colleagues. He didn’t get it. Instead, several Republicans verbally taunted the president, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who showed up in Trump campaign garb.
At the beginning of the speech, when the television audience was at its largest, Biden took dead aim at his opponent without ever mentioning his name. He hammered home what a second Trump administration would mean to democracy.
Biden also called out his opponent for cozying up to the Russians.
You know what else many people found to be outrageous? The reaction of Republicans who sat on their hands when Biden spoke those words. Or maybe you think it’s not that surprising.
There is no doubt this was a campaign speech wrapped up as a State of the Union address. Biden was criticized by the right for politicizing it. But as we have written before, we are living in a time when nearly everything seems political.
Share
Biden is a natural, highly experienced campaigner, and he seemed to revel in the moment. And the public responded. The president’s campaign reported the speech accounted for the largest fundraising haul since Biden declared he was running for reelection.
A post-speech flash poll by CNN found a sizable shift in the electorate. After the address, 62 percent of people polled said Biden’s policies will move the country in the right direction. Prior to the speech, that number was just 45 percent.
A caveat, please: I have watched at least the last 60 State of the Union addresses. Their impact on the public consciousness is often short-lived. How this will apply to the oldest presidential candidate in history defying expectations, we shall see.
On Friday, Biden was back on the campaign trail in Pennsylvania with more positive economic news to emphasize. The U.S. added 275,000 jobs in February. The Biden campaign, which has a lot more cash on hand than Trump, announced a big ad buy, $30 million, in swing states.
Speaking of money, today, Lara Trump, daughter-in-law of the former president, was elected co-chair of the Republican National Committee. The former president, who currently owes almost half a billion dollars in legal judgments and more in ensuing legal fees, has been using donor money from the RNC to pay his battalion of lawyers. On Friday, Trump posted a $91.6 million bond to appeal the judgment in the case of E. Jean Carroll, the woman he was found to have sexually abused and then defamed.
With that in mind, one line from last night’s speech seemed to be meant for an audience of one. “You can’t love your country only when you win.”
Democrats would love for this president to earn the title “Fighting Joe Biden.” To fully earn that he must come from behind and win in November.
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The (High) Price of Humiliation
Don’t look now, but are the polls moving?
Donald Trump, the self-proclaimed billionaire, cannot secure a bond to cover a $454 million judgment against him. This could mean the seizure of any number of his properties as soon as next week.
One can imagine how humiliating this is for the Republican frontrunner, a man who wears his net worth on his sleeve and whose self-worth is intrinsically tied to money.
Trump is appealing the February 16 judgment against him for lying about and inflating the value of his properties to lenders and insurance companies. He must either give the full amount to the court to be held in escrow or get a bond. In a filing with the New York appellate court today, his attorneys admitted Trump faces “insurmountable difficulties” in obtaining the bond. A whopping 30 surety companies have rejected his requests. The lawyers described his chances of success as “a practical impossibility.”
The appellate court has been asked to pause the judgment or significantly reduce it to $100 million. If it fails to rule by March 25, New York State Attorney General Letitia James can start seizing Trump’s properties immediately.
You may wonder why Trump does not just use his vast real estate holdings, like Trump Tower and Mar-a-Lago, as collateral. Bond companies prefer more liquid assets, like securities, of which he does not have enough — especially for a bond of this size. And it’s not only $454 million. If he could get the bond, it would be 120% of the $454 million plus 2% interest for two years upfront, so closer to $600 million.
This is on top of the $91.6 million bond he was able to secure to cover the judgment in the E. Jean Carroll defamation case, which he is also appealing.
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It wasn’t the only bad news he got today.
For the first time in more than six months, presidential tracking polls show President Biden and Trump in a dead heat. Trump had been leading since September.
So why the sudden Biden surge? The easiest explanation may be that “crazy” is finally catching up to Trump.
Since he spends most of the workweek defending himself in courts around the country, Trump’s campaigning has been limited to weekend rallies. Saturday night found him in Ohio, where he spewed this doozy: “Now if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the whole — that’s gonna be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country.” He seemed to have gone off script, as he had just been talking about Chinese competition in the car industry.
He also now calls the January 6 insurrectionists who are currently serving prison time “hostages.” And he said he would pardon all of them on day one of his second term. Imagine hundreds of convicted insurrectionists suddenly being freed. A group of Americans polled by CBS News didn’t think much of the idea. The electorate doesn’t embrace the former president's approval of political violence and those who perpetrate it.
Sixty-two percent of all voters oppose the pardons, according to a CBS News poll. A Data for Progress poll shows that 57% of independents are less likely to vote for a candidate who approves of the January 6 attacks. Even a majority of self-described MAGA Republicans — 57% — don’t support the conduct of the rioters, according to CBS News.
Now, once you have read and perhaps mentally digested all of the above, it’s time to evoke our mantra: steady. Polls are at most simply a moment’s snapshot of how people say they are thinking. It’s usually a mistake to make too much of them.
Trump’s money problems appear to be real, and that’s not a good sign for him. But court delays and loans could grant him some relief yet. And who knows how that will affect the election, if at all.
Trump looks politically weaker right now, but that is not necessarily a permanent condition. With the election still months away, we need to remind ourselves that everyone who cares about the country needs to pay attention and get involved. Politics is incremental, and electorates are fickle. Though President Biden will need more to win, momentum appears to have moved in his direction, at least for the moment.
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Who’s Minding Musk?
Nobody, and that’s a problem
DAN RATHER AND TEAM STEADY
AUG 5
READ IN APP
Credit: Getty Images
Imagine having the ability to instantly lob information, true or not, to millions of people across the globe. Elon Musk, the owner of X (formerly known as Twitter), has that ability. One would hope that with that power would come responsibility. In a perfect world, the owners of social media companies would be fair-minded and objective. Alas.
For all the talk of social media reform after 2016 and the Facebook fiasco when misinformation ran rampant across that platform, it now appears that Musk has decided not only to support the Republican candidate for president but to personally help spread misinformation about voting and the election.
Plus, in 2024, Musk has more powerful tools than Facebook ever imagined eight years ago. Artificial intelligence is coming into its own, and the dangers it presents to our democracy are profound.
Musk has recently released an AI chatbot, which, if you don’t know, is basically a computer that can simulate a human conversation. Musk named his Grok, and within hours of President Biden bowing out of the race, it created a post that read: “The ballot deadline has passed for several states for the 2024 election,” naming nine states: Alabama, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Washington. The message suggested that Kamala Harris had missed the filing deadline to get on the ballot in those states.
This is 100% false and was shared with millions of users on X.
Secretaries of state in five of the nine states have written a letter to Musk urging him to “immediately implement changes” to Grok. I’m not holding my breath.
When Grok was launched late last year, Musk called it the anti-“woke” chatbot — his characterization. He said he wanted the AI search assistant to “answer spicy questions that are rejected by most other AI systems.” Those other AI systems, powered by OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft, are specifically designed to avoid controversial topics.
But it’s not just Grok that is pushing out lies. Musk himself reposted a manipulated version of Harris’s first campaign video. It featured an altered voice track that sounds just like Harris. In it “she” says she didn’t “know the first thing about running the country” and that she is the “ultimate diversity hire.” Musk tagged the video as “amazing” and didn’t include a disclaimer. His post has garnered 135 million views, so far. It has not been taken down.
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Talk about strange bedfellows. Over the years, there has been no love lost between Musk and Donald Trump. As recently as May, Trump was a vociferous and vocal proponent of the oil and gas industry. Remember the Mar-a-Lago get-together where he promised to end Biden’s green energy initiatives, including his electric vehicle policies, in exchange for $1 billion in campaign contributions?
Apparently Musk and Trump have mended some pretty tall fences. For his part, Musk has promised lots of cash to the pro-Trump America PAC. Maybe Trump didn’t get what he asked for from his oil and gas friends.
In exchange, Trump now thinks electric vehicles are “incredible.” What a shocker. At a rally in Georgia on Sunday, Trump told his supporters, “I’m for electric cars. I have to be because, you know, Elon endorsed me very strongly. So, I have no choice.”
The Musk-backed America PAC is already helping Trump in swing states. The PAC’s website is tricking people into sharing personal data. The site promises to help people register to vote, but when a user enters a zip code in a battleground state, after also giving their name and phone number, they are directed to a page that says “thank you.” They are then asked to “complete the form below.” But there is no form. And there is no redirection to a voter registration site.
The Michigan secretary of state is investigating Musk and the PAC. “Every citizen should know exactly how their personal information is being used by PACs, especially if an entity is claiming it will help people register to vote in Michigan or any other state,” a spokeswoman for the secretary of state’s office said.
In 2022, President Barack Obama gave a speech at Stanford University about the dangers of artificial intelligence, foreseeing that “regulation has to be part of the answer” to combating online disinformation. His closing thought is a reminder that AI can be a help as well as a hindrance — but that it can’t exist in a vacuum.
“The internet is a tool. Social media is a tool. At the end of the day, tools don’t control us. We control them. And we can remake them. It’s up to each of us to decide what we value and then use the tools we’ve been given to advance those values,” Obama said.
For all intents and purposes, social media has become our town square — but unlike most communities, it has no sheriff, and it very much needs one. In his or her absence it is up to us, social media’s users, to be wary consumers.
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Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14