Ukraine

mrussel1

curmudgeoness said:

I'm more worried about a nuclear accident than a nuclear attack, TBH. Never underestimate the Russian propensity for incompetence and corruption. I disagree with Tom Nichols about a number of things, but I think he's  on solid ground when it comes to nuclear matters. I'm much less worried about Putin going nuclear than I was a year ago (I'm not going to panic until Tom says it's time to panic).

I'm not suggesting that "we" should try to eliminate Putin; but he is a Russian man of a certain age, in a certain position, so there will be a successor, likely sooner than later. And I'm not hearing anything to suggest that there's anyone waiting in the wings who is not steeped in the old ways.

I just presumed it would be Dmitry Medvedev.  

mickeyrat

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1670136975108587524?t=TxxX_635utxn7CS2shfGMQ&s=19

mickeyrat

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1670483387004641280?t=vrg71jQ9OtQPQtR6SUkbAw&s=19

mickeyrat

https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1670254115358756865?t=qMXTylpY9zE9X3ric3_TQg&s=19

dudeman

mickeyrat said:

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1670136975108587524?t=TxxX_635utxn7CS2shfGMQ&s=19

This is absolutely disgusting. WTF is wrong with the people who would do such a thing? Goddam savages.

mickeyrat

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1671272316569780226?t=cuNYHPATWuYHVpgSyyk_aw&s=19

mickeyrat

kinda expect more of this for the next 2 years.....

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-weapons-surplus-funding-72eeb6119439146f1939d5b1973a44ef

 

Pentagon accounting error provides extra $6.2 billion for Ukraine military aid

By Lolita C. Baldor, Tara Copp

Today

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Pentagon said Tuesday that it overestimated the value of the weapons it has sent to Ukraine by $6.2 billion over the past two years — about double early estimates — resulting in a surplus that will be used for future security packages.

Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said a detailed review of the accounting error found that the military services used replacement costs rather than the book value of equipment that was pulled from Pentagon stocks and sent to Ukraine. She said final calculations show there was an error of $3.6 billion in the current fiscal year and $2.6 billion in the 2022 fiscal year, which ended last Sept. 30.

As a result, the department now has additional money in its coffers to use to support Ukraine as it pursues its counteroffensive against Russia. And it come as the fiscal year is wrapping up and congressional funding was beginning to dwindle.

continues....

curmudgeoness

dudeman said:

mickeyrat said:

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1670136975108587524?t=TxxX_635utxn7CS2shfGMQ&s=19

This is absolutely disgusting. WTF is wrong with the people who would do such a thing? Goddam savages.

This is what the Russian army has been for a very long time. Ask the Finns. (Fwiw, they treat their own soldiers horribly, too -- not that that''s any justification for what they are doing to Ukrainians. Corruption and gross abuse are longstanding issues in the Russian/Soviet military.)

mickeyrat

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1671805650106474497?t=SIA94M6YrXu9eFXlB6bmLA&s=19

tempo_n_groove

mickeyrat said:

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1671805650106474497?t=SIA94M6YrXu9eFXlB6bmLA&s=19

I was just coming to post about this.

So one way or the other there is going to be an attack on the plant and radiation is going to be everywhere...

That cloud should go over into Russia though, no?  I don't get why attacking this is a good idea.

mickeyrat

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1671805650106474497?t=SIA94M6YrXu9eFXlB6bmLA&s=19

I was just coming to post about this.

So one way or the other there is going to be an attack on the plant and radiation is going to be everywhere...

That cloud should go over into Russia though, no?  I don't get why attacking this is a good idea.

was invading in the first place?

was the dam?

east of the river and crimea are fucked.

curmudgeoness

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1671805650106474497?t=SIA94M6YrXu9eFXlB6bmLA&s=19

I was just coming to post about this.

So one way or the other there is going to be an attack on the plant and radiation is going to be everywhere...

That cloud should go over into Russia though, no?  I don't get why attacking this is a good idea.

There's no way to know which way the radiation would be carried. I was sitting outside on a lovely day in Germany in 1985 when increased radiation from Chornobyl -- also in Ukraine -- was detected in Germany; that time, the radiation drifted west, over Poland and Germany. Also, Putin does not give a rat's ass about people in the military or people in general.

The point is to destroy Ukraine. Look at what the military is doing. They are trying to obliterate the land, the people, the language, the culture -- everything. He isn't planning to populate the region with more Russian speakers, scorched earth is fine with him.

tempo_n_groove

curmudgeoness said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1671805650106474497?t=SIA94M6YrXu9eFXlB6bmLA&s=19

I was just coming to post about this.

So one way or the other there is going to be an attack on the plant and radiation is going to be everywhere...

That cloud should go over into Russia though, no?  I don't get why attacking this is a good idea.

There's no way to know which way the radiation would be carried. I was sitting outside on a lovely day in Germany in 1985 when increased radiation from Chornobyl -- also in Ukraine -- was detected in Germany; that time, the radiation drifted west, over Poland and Germany. Also, Putin does not give a rat's ass about people in the military or people in general.

The point is to destroy Ukraine. Look at what the military is doing. They are trying to obliterate the land, the people, the language, the culture -- everything. He isn't planning to populate the region with more Russian speakers, scorched earth is fine with him.

For the sake of following the jet stream let's just say it blows east.  That will eventually float into Russia a bunch of Stans and China.

Saying Putin doesn't give a shit is right.  He actually has his forces firing from the damn plant.  If Ukraine fires back and damages something then they get blamed.  

Power move.

mickeyrat

tempo_n_groove said:

curmudgeoness said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1671805650106474497?t=SIA94M6YrXu9eFXlB6bmLA&s=19

I was just coming to post about this.

So one way or the other there is going to be an attack on the plant and radiation is going to be everywhere...

That cloud should go over into Russia though, no?  I don't get why attacking this is a good idea.

There's no way to know which way the radiation would be carried. I was sitting outside on a lovely day in Germany in 1985 when increased radiation from Chornobyl -- also in Ukraine -- was detected in Germany; that time, the radiation drifted west, over Poland and Germany. Also, Putin does not give a rat's ass about people in the military or people in general.

The point is to destroy Ukraine. Look at what the military is doing. They are trying to obliterate the land, the people, the language, the culture -- everything. He isn't planning to populate the region with more Russian speakers, scorched earth is fine with him.

For the sake of following the jet stream let's just say it blows east.  That will eventually float into Russia a bunch of Stans and China.

Saying Putin doesn't give a shit is right.  He actually has his forces firing from the damn plant.  If Ukraine fires back and damages something then they get blamed.  

Power move.

one that can be captured on video, satellite,  drone cam.....

he either expects to die soon or will never leave Russia again...

curmudgeoness

I don't assume that he's rational.

I am certain that he doesn't care if a nuclear disaster affects Belarus or Central Asia. But -- we also don't know what the scale of the disaster would be. Is it going to wipe out all life within a thousand miles of the plant? I doubt it (and I certainly hope not!). I can only speak from my own experience, since I'm not an expert on nuclear matters: Again, I was living in Germany at the time of the Chornobyl disaster. Schoolchildren were kept indoors during breaks (Pause -- recess); we were advised to avoid going out in the rain; produce needed to be washed thoroughly before eating, some was avoided altogether, fruit suddenly was imported from South America instead of Eastern Europe.

So there were no iodine pills being distributed, no mass panic and chaos.

I'm not trying at all to diminish how terrible Putin is, I'm saying that there's no way to know how widespread the damage and chaos from such a move would be.

But -- for all his talk, I do NOT think Putin wants to escalate things to the point where we and NATO are very directly involved in the conflict. The Russian army sucks, always has, and if I were him I'd not be counting on China for backup.  

tempo_n_groove

curmudgeoness said:

I don't assume that he's rational.

I am certain that he doesn't care if a nuclear disaster affects Belarus or Central Asia. But -- we also don't know what the scale of the disaster would be. Is it going to wipe out all life within a thousand miles of the plant? I doubt it (and I certainly hope not!). I can only speak from my own experience, since I'm not an expert on nuclear matters: Again, I was living in Germany at the time of the Chornobyl disaster. Schoolchildren were kept indoors during breaks (Pause -- recess); we were advised to avoid going out in the rain; produce needed to be washed thoroughly before eating, some was avoided altogether, fruit suddenly was imported from South America instead of Eastern Europe.

So there were no iodine pills being distributed, no mass panic and chaos.

I'm not trying at all to diminish how terrible Putin is, I'm saying that there's no way to know how widespread the damage and chaos from such a move would be.

But -- for all his talk, I do NOT think Putin wants to escalate things to the point where we and NATO are very directly involved in the conflict. The Russian army sucks, always has, and if I were him I'd not be counting on China for backup.  

I'll use the Japanese power plant as an example.  They were finding radiation all over the western coast.  That's a good ways away so that gives you an idea of what can happen.

curmudgeoness

tempo_n_groove said:

curmudgeoness said:

I don't assume that he's rational.

I am certain that he doesn't care if a nuclear disaster affects Belarus or Central Asia. But -- we also don't know what the scale of the disaster would be. Is it going to wipe out all life within a thousand miles of the plant? I doubt it (and I certainly hope not!). I can only speak from my own experience, since I'm not an expert on nuclear matters: Again, I was living in Germany at the time of the Chornobyl disaster. Schoolchildren were kept indoors during breaks (Pause -- recess); we were advised to avoid going out in the rain; produce needed to be washed thoroughly before eating, some was avoided altogether, fruit suddenly was imported from South America instead of Eastern Europe.

So there were no iodine pills being distributed, no mass panic and chaos.

I'm not trying at all to diminish how terrible Putin is, I'm saying that there's no way to know how widespread the damage and chaos from such a move would be.

But -- for all his talk, I do NOT think Putin wants to escalate things to the point where we and NATO are very directly involved in the conflict. The Russian army sucks, always has, and if I were him I'd not be counting on China for backup.  

I'll use the Japanese power plant as an example.  They were finding radiation all over the western coast.  That's a good ways away so that gives you an idea of what can happen.

Sure, but it didn't render LA uninhabitable. To some degree, if something happens, the effects are far-ranging. I'm talking about the intensity of the effect: if the amount of radiation released is such that the global increase in cancer rates will be tough to distinguish from noise, that's one thing, and if they blow the whole plant sky-high and render half of Ukraine uninhabitable, that's a different matter. Both options suck, one will elicit a larger response than the other. 

mrussel1

curmudgeoness said:

I don't assume that he's rational.

I am certain that he doesn't care if a nuclear disaster affects Belarus or Central Asia. But -- we also don't know what the scale of the disaster would be. Is it going to wipe out all life within a thousand miles of the plant? I doubt it (and I certainly hope not!). I can only speak from my own experience, since I'm not an expert on nuclear matters: Again, I was living in Germany at the time of the Chornobyl disaster. Schoolchildren were kept indoors during breaks (Pause -- recess); we were advised to avoid going out in the rain; produce needed to be washed thoroughly before eating, some was avoided altogether, fruit suddenly was imported from South America instead of Eastern Europe.

So there were no iodine pills being distributed, no mass panic and chaos.

I'm not trying at all to diminish how terrible Putin is, I'm saying that there's no way to know how widespread the damage and chaos from such a move would be.

But -- for all his talk, I do NOT think Putin wants to escalate things to the point where we and NATO are very directly involved in the conflict. The Russian army sucks, always has, and if I were him I'd not be counting on China for backup.  

Agreed.  Also, I do not believe that Putin has the sole authority to launch.  I think it goes through the military. 

curmudgeoness

Interesting video from Prigozhin:

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1672231683087540226?cxt=HHwWhICxyeP2-rQuAAAA 

curmudgeoness

So there’s trouble in paradise. @wartranslated on Twitter is translating Prigozhin’s video and adding other detail. 

https://twitter.com/wartranslated

ETA: this is crazy stuff. Prigozhin claims Shoigu fled, MOD is out to get Prigozhin, just go read for yourselves. Crazy time shitshow.