Tickets now handled by TICKETSTODAY, same as DMB/Warehouse Fan Club, hmmm

dmbolp

(Putting on my tin-foil conspiracy theory hat)

TICKETSTODAY has handled the fan club ticketing for Dave Matthews Band for many years.  DMB was all reserve seats until 2010 when they added a GA Pit to the front floor.  A couple years later they added a "Best Available" option (previously you could say "Just Pit" or "Just Reserves" or "Just Lawn").  And the claim has always been, Best Available was your best chance to be confirmed for tickets.  But to me it's become pretty clear over the years that if you select "Best Available" for a high demand show (all of these PJ shows have fewer GA tickets than requests made) you are hurting your chances for GA and getting moved to Reserves, and maybe even Lawn if supply exceeds demand for Reserves too.

Message board confirmation polls have been conducted, gathering request and confirmation data.  A poll a couple years ago with 500+ responses (yeah, small sample size) showed that, across all shows combined:

71% of requests for just PIT/GA got PIT/GA.  The remaining 29% got declined for tickets.

24% of requests for Best Available got PIT/GA.  45% then were moved to Reserves; 27% to Lawn; and just 4% declined.

So yes, Best Available is your best chance for tickets (not getting declined), but why the big percentage gap in getting PIT/GA?  I think (at least for DMB/TICKETSTODAY) for shows where PIT/GA demand exceeds supply, PIT/GA-only requests are filled first for the most part, and then Best Available requests are then filled (you said you'd be fine with Reserves or Lawn, so that's what we gave you).  This allows for the most tickets to be sold (move as many requests as possible to Reserves when the odds are 35/99).  They still have to fill some Best Available requests with PIT/GA otherwise it would be too obvious.  They've always said the process is completely random, but sure doesn't look that way to me.

This could all be on the up-and-up and this is just how the numbers play out due to small sample size.  

Also a few years ago, DMB added a PRIORITY SHOW button, which could be similar to ranking your requests by priority (but with DMB you get just the one priority).

It might be interesting to do similar polls next week after confirmations to see how "Best Available" plays out with PJ and GA/Reserves mix; sounds like most posts here think that the chance for PIT/GA shouldn't be any different whether you go with Best Available or just PIT/GA.  Maybe conduct the polls for individual shows.

Maybe TICKETSTODAY will handle PJ tickets completely differently than DMB..."by show" or "by person"...who knows

RoleModelsinBlood31

Interesting. So you’re saying there’s still a chance at GA if I put best available? Sweet.

JimmyV

Isn't the DMB pit very small? How many people out of 500 would even be expected to win GA?

Lost_And_No_Guide

DMB pit depends on venue.  at arenas akin to what PJ is playing this tour, the DMB pit would be very large, at least as large as PJ's and for a few years the entire floor was GA.

dmbolp is a good dude, been to several dmb shows with him, played golf with him before those shows. he knows ticketing procedure more than anyone I know; he's right about DMB dumping their unsaleable tickets on fan club members who, to the minds of DMB management, "don't care where they sit" because they clicked "Best available."  

However, I think he's wrong on this one.  At least, I hope so.

Lost_And_No_Guide

I think DMB has a mid-tier ticket demand problem that PJ doesn't have.  DMB demand for the best seats in the house is still far outstripping supply, and lawn seats will always draw a fair crowd b/c of the small price.  However, DMB has historically, going back at least a decade, had a real problem selling the seats that aren't up front--and me and dmbolp's theory (a lot of people's theory, really, but limiting here to people in this thread) is that DMB tweaks their ticketing protocols/policies such that their fan club ends up being forced to buy that subsection of seats they typically have a hard time selling.

I don't think PJ needs to do that, A) because I truly do believe that they are able to secure all the best seats for their club members, thus reducing their own supply of less desirable seats, and they will sell those seats regardless, so they don't have a business need to "trick," for lack of a better word, any prey into buying them.

dmbolp

Lost_And_No_Guide said:

I think DMB has a mid-tier ticket demand problem that PJ doesn't have.  DMB demand for the best seats in the house is still far outstripping supply...

If PJ got 10,000+ Reserve seats for these shows (a huge increase over the past) and Reserves odds stay at 99%, then PJ is going to have the same demand problem.  Maybe for them it's easily solved by releasing them thru regular Ticketmaster or their fan-to-fan process, whether or not a 10C member ever bought the tickets originally.

Lost_And_No_Guide

My guess is that their data history has them feeling confident about what to do with any overage

Lost_And_No_Guide

And I'd point out that's a supply problem, not a demand problem 

dmbolp

The common assumption here is; when the odds for GA for MSG is 15% after tonight's closing, for example, then anyone's chance for getting GA should be 15%, whether they put in for just GA, or you went with Best Available, correct?

I'm suggesting that in the DMB world, the percent for GA-only requests would be higher than 15%, and Best Available requests would be lower success rate than 15%, all averaging out to 15%, but there shouldn't be a statistical difference between the two request options, right?

PJNB

dmbolp said:

The common assumption here is; when the odds for GA for MSG is 15% after tonight's closing, for example, then anyone's chance for getting GA should be 15%, whether they put in for just GA, or you went with Best Available, correct?

I'm suggesting that in the DMB world, the percent for GA-only requests would be higher than 15%, and Best Available requests would be lower success rate than 15%, all averaging out to 15%, but there shouldn't be a statistical difference between the two request options, right?

No that is not how it works for everyones chances being the same since there is priority to consider. 15% of people that put in for GA will get it. So if 15 people put in for first priority and 85 put in for second priority the first picks have 100% chance of winning and the second is 0%.

Lost_And_No_Guide

I think the assumption has a bit more nuance here b/c of the priority option but in general I agree that a person who put their priority on a given show as best available should have the same chance at GA as someone who used their priority for a GA-only request for the same show

and that's definitely true of DMB (well, at least it was true back when you could actually put in a GA-only request, which you now cannot)

hihobibo

This makes me think differently than I have all week. Your theory is that tickets pulled go : GA, Best Available, then reserve. That makes sense, and in essence, makes your first priority show split into 3 sub priorities instead of one.

You are going to drive people nuts at the deadline. 

dmbolp

PJNB said:

dmbolp said:

The common assumption here is; when the odds for GA for MSG is 15% after tonight's closing, for example, then anyone's chance for getting GA should be 15%, whether they put in for just GA, or you went with Best Available, correct?

I'm suggesting that in the DMB world, the percent for GA-only requests would be higher than 15%, and Best Available requests would be lower success rate than 15%, all averaging out to 15%, but there shouldn't be a statistical difference between the two request options, right?

No that is not how it works for everyones chances being the same since there is priority to consider. 15% of people that put in for GA will get it. So if 15 people put in for first priority and 85 put in for second priority the first picks have 100% chance of winning and the second is 0%.

Good Point, priority throws a wrench in the theory.  But how about this; 10,000 people put in for MSG with 1,000 GA tickets available (10% odds) and all put MSG as their first priority.  And half of the requests put in for just GA and the other half put in for Best Available.  Then for all folks who put MSG as their first priority, 10% of both groups (GA and Best Available) should get GA, correct?

Zod

This has me nervous.  We're pretty much on a GA or bust attempt for Oakland.   It occured to us that with our two memberships we might get GA to one but not both (one of us hits, one of us misses).   So we opted for best available so we don't have to deal with TM if that happens.   If this drastically increases our odds of getting seats instead of GA, I should go change it.

It would sort of make sense.  If they don't draw in order but use an algorithm that tries to fill the most amount of orders, it might allocate GA first to people that only wanted GA or their orders go unfulfilled..... 

Like a previous poster said, this is making me thing I should change to GA only.

NewfieintheUSA

hihobibo said:

This makes me think differently than I have all week. Your theory is that tickets pulled go : GA, Best Available, then reserve. That makes sense, and in essence, makes your first priority show split into 3 sub priorities instead of one.

You are going to drive people nuts at the deadline. 

I highly doubt that is how it will work, and in the original post didn't happen, if it did, all the GA folks would have gotten tickets

indifferentman

Does DMB use a seniority system like PJ though?  Pardon my ignorance on this because I'm not a DMB fan.

The equalizer for us is Reserved is going to be based on your Seniority number.  Yes, it HAS happened where the 10C appeared to screw things up and low seniority numbers have been given bad seats in the past, but it's the exception not the rule.

I should expect that with a 245XXX I'm going to get a decent seat, not a 200 or 300 level at the back of the arena.

Therefore I'm okay for applying for RES knowing I've got a better chance of getting those vs. GA for a show that really matters to me, and I'm not going to get screwed.  I'm only choosing Best Available for shows that are like 3rd Priority or beyond.  

dmbolp

indifferentman said:

Does DMB use a seniority system like PJ though?  Pardon my ignorance on this because I'm not a DMB fan.

Yes they do, and it's supposed to be similar to how it works here; only comes into play when assigning Reserve seats.  But with DMB it also appear to impact GA/Pit selection...new members seem to "randomly" get PIT more often, with senior members "randomly" getting declined for Pit more often.  The opposing argument is; old members only complain, and new members only post about happy things  

jstu39

dmbolp said:

(Putting on my tin-foil conspiracy theory hat)

TICKETSTODAY has handled the fan club ticketing for Dave Matthews Band for many years.  DMB was all reserve seats until 2010 when they added a GA Pit to the front floor.  A couple years later they added a "Best Available" option (previously you could say "Just Pit" or "Just Reserves" or "Just Lawn").  And the claim has always been, Best Available was your best chance to be confirmed for tickets.  But to me it's become pretty clear over the years that if you select "Best Available" for a high demand show (all of these PJ shows have fewer GA tickets than requests made) you are hurting your chances for GA and getting moved to Reserves, and maybe even Lawn if supply exceeds demand for Reserves too.

Message board confirmation polls have been conducted, gathering request and confirmation data.  A poll a couple years ago with 500+ responses (yeah, small sample size) showed that, across all shows combined:

71% of requests for just PIT/GA got PIT/GA.  The remaining 29% got declined for tickets.

24% of requests for Best Available got PIT/GA.  45% then were moved to Reserves; 27% to Lawn; and just 4% declined.

So yes, Best Available is your best chance for tickets (not getting declined), but why the big percentage gap in getting PIT/GA?  I think (at least for DMB/TICKETSTODAY) for shows where PIT/GA demand exceeds supply, PIT/GA-only requests are filled first for the most part, and then Best Available requests are then filled (you said you'd be fine with Reserves or Lawn, so that's what we gave you).  This allows for the most tickets to be sold (move as many requests as possible to Reserves when the odds are 35/99).  They still have to fill some Best Available requests with PIT/GA otherwise it would be too obvious.  They've always said the process is completely random, but sure doesn't look that way to me.

This could all be on the up-and-up and this is just how the numbers play out due to small sample size.  

Also a few years ago, DMB added a PRIORITY SHOW button, which could be similar to ranking your requests by priority (but with DMB you get just the one priority).

It might be interesting to do similar polls next week after confirmations to see how "Best Available" plays out with PJ and GA/Reserves mix; sounds like most posts here think that the chance for PIT/GA shouldn't be any different whether you go with Best Available or just PIT/GA.  Maybe conduct the polls for individual shows.

Maybe TICKETSTODAY will handle PJ tickets completely differently than DMB..."by show" or "by person"...who knows

I think this makes sense and is exactly what will happen because it will benefit TICKETSTODAY as they will distribute more tickets.

If they know someone is 'okay' getting reserved why decline someone who only wants GA. Its a bit of gamble for people who pick GA only but I wouldn't doubt for a second they get better odds, even though that's not stated. Not worth the risk for me as GA odds are lower. 

BE9456

dmbolp said:

71% of requests for just PIT/GA got PIT/GA.  The remaining 29% got declined for tickets.

24% of requests for Best Available got PIT/GA.  45% then were moved to Reserves; 27% to Lawn; and just 4% declined.

You are not proving anything here. Without knowing how many put in just for GA no way to know. 

dmbolp

BE9456 said:

dmbolp said:

71% of requests for just PIT/GA got PIT/GA.  The remaining 29% got declined for tickets.

24% of requests for Best Available got PIT/GA.  45% then were moved to Reserves; 27% to Lawn; and just 4% declined.

You are not proving anything here. Without knowing how many put in just for GA no way to know. 

So you don’t believe in polling?  You either need to know what happened for absolutely everyone or it’s not worth looking at a sample population?

given2fly23

This definitely makes sense.  Especially with 99% odds for reserved, if that is accurate, then obviously they want the GA tix going to the GA only people so they can sell the reserved seats to the "best available" people.