He hasn't announced yet, of course, but once he does, he's the frontrunner for the Dems, and I think he's got a good shot at Drumpf, especially if he chooses his running mate and successor wisely.
"I'll use the magic word - let's just shut the fuck up, please." EV, 04/13/08
It's really hard to imagine Trump losing at this point. I think it's pretty well established that he hasn't lost any of his 2016 voters. He'll get more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. That means a Hillary/Kerry/Gore performance (i.e., a couple-million more votes than Trump) won't get it done. It's going to take an Obama performance. It's going to take that great positive energy that brings people to the polls. I don't see that happening out of this group.
Warren is the Hillary. The ethnicity issue alone will hurt her. The others? Various reasons...I think Beto would have an outside chance because he has some of that Obama-like appeal, but just like private bone-spurs beats war heroes in his own party, his plethora of despicable actions, past and present, will likely harm him far less than Beto's DWI.
And the party rank-and-file? Many who's candidates lose the nomination will piss and moan and stay at home. They'l be upset a white male got the nomination, or Mayor Pete because he criticized Hillary in 2019, or Warren because of the ethnicity thing, or Biden because he's creepy and "establishment," or blah, blah blah. Meanwhile the GOP candidate, more despicable than the rest combined, will sail by, forgiven for his sexual harassment, racism, etc.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
way too early to tell. it's 18 months away. depends on the economy. that's all anyone honestly really gives a shit about it seems.
Yep no doubt
jesus greets me looks just like me ....
0
brianlux
Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 42,299
One of the others who doesn’t have a chance.
I voted for "One of the others who doesn’t have a chance" (an interesting option there, Riley!) to see if I can beat logic or physics or whatever time/space warp would be involved in someone winning who doesn't have a chance. I think I'll go with Jello Biafra on this one.
As far as who I think will win who does have a chance... I don't have a clue. It's WAY too early to tell. We're still 20 months away, the dems are still in the process of narrowing it down from a crowed stage to a few major contenders and the Republicans don't really seem all that motivated to do much other than harrumph or bark their way through their denial (they still think Trump is making their lives better? LOL).
I think we should do this again in about 10 to 12 months and see how our votes change by then.
"Pretty cookies, heart squares all around, yeah!" -Eddie Vedder, "Smile"
I thought Beto might be the one based on his popularity in the Cruz race but based on what I’ve seen of him on the national stage he will be eaten alive by his own kind in the primary. Plus, having an “L” to Ted Cruz on your resume is never a good thing.
Comments
Warren is the Hillary. The ethnicity issue alone will hurt her. The others? Various reasons...I think Beto would have an outside chance because he has some of that Obama-like appeal, but just like private bone-spurs beats war heroes in his own party, his plethora of despicable actions, past and present, will likely harm him far less than Beto's DWI.
And the party rank-and-file? Many who's candidates lose the nomination will piss and moan and stay at home. They'l be upset a white male got the nomination, or Mayor Pete because he criticized Hillary in 2019, or Warren because of the ethnicity thing, or Biden because he's creepy and "establishment," or blah, blah blah. Meanwhile the GOP candidate, more despicable than the rest combined, will sail by, forgiven for his sexual harassment, racism, etc.
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
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www.cluthe.com
-EV 8/14/93
-Eddie Vedder, "Smile"
"...I changed by not changing at all..."