Ticket Lottery Strategy

ComeToTX

I'm planning on doing Columbia GA #1 then columbia, Raleigh, Lexington reserved in that order. If they all stay 99% for reserved is there any reason not to try for all of them GA first?

derbydave

ragejoe said:

TL170678 said:

@DerbyDave
I have Lexington GA as my #1, Lexington reserve as my #2. Do you recommend swapping them around? Or what....It`s my only show I can get to. 530022 is my #....Not sure if I got it in 2004, or 2015....

I was just thinking the same question... Like i did reserved MSG 2 for my first choice n then GA MSG 1 for my 2nd... im thinking now i should do reserved MSG 1 for my second ... seems like its safer to give up on the GA option and do the reserved seat choice if we think more people go for GA??? DO more people do GA?? Ive tried to mix it up in 2013 since this started.

They tell us there are more reserved seats available than GA,
so in theory, that would be the best choice if you just want to be "In The Building"
Since they've limited tickets to only one show in NYC & Philly this time,
I would just pick the show I really wanted to attend,
And enter that as my #1 choice!!
Looking at the odds at this moment for the MSG shows,
it appears that your BEST bet is what you mentioned...reserved for Night 2,
but as long as it's your #1 choice you have the same chance of winning tickets to any of these shows as anyone else!!
Your second choice won't even come into play in these high demand shows, because there won't be enough tickets for the people that have chosen this as their #1 show.

derbydave

ComeToTX said:

I'm planning on doing Columbia GA #1 then columbia, Raleigh, Lexington reserved in that order. If they all stay 99% for reserved is there any reason not to try for all of them GA first?

I'd say go for it with these lower demand shows!!
Just remember they go thru all the people that chose each show as their #1 first...then everyone that has it as #2 and so forth.
So the higher the selection of your "choice" the fewer tickets will be remaining in the pool!!
I will tell you that I lost Lincoln GA as a 5th choice, but won Tulsa, Memphis & Lincoln reserved tickets as my 6th, 7th & 8th choices in 2014.

ComeToTX

If they're all still at 99 then they haven't had as many entry's as tickets, correct?

Hopefully we'll meet this tour, Dave!

derbydave

ComeToTX said:

If they're all still at 99 then they haven't had as many entry's as tickets, correct?

Hopefully we'll meet this tour, Dave!

Correct!!!
I look at it this way...
if the odds are at 99%,
That means that for every 100 people that request this show,
99 will get the tickets!!
I'm hoping to do all 3 of the shows you mentioned,
so the ODDS of meeting up are pretty good my friend!! :plus_one:
I'll look forward to meeting you on the road this year...
If you see a guy in a tie-dyed "I'm Analog" T-shirt at a show,
PLEASE say hello!!

ComeToTX

Right on. We can meet up on a pj tour and talk mmj.

derbydave

ComeToTX said:

Right on. We can meet up on a pj tour and talk mmj.

That would be a BLAST...
See you on the road!!!

BagCzech

ally12 said:

I am kinda of screwed though then. High 10C number, High Odds.. so I will get floor. That doesn't make sense wouldn't the members with higher seniority get the floor and not the stands?

considering that most (all) people would consider the side sections better than the back floor, the answer is no.

JojoRice

deadendp said:

JojoRice said:

I'm just hoping to be in the building! Keeping my fingers crossed. This will be my first PJ show if I get lucky in the lottery!

Looks like you joined after January 18th, so you wouldn't qualify for this lottery on the current username you have here. (See front page specs for details.) Still, there are often 10c tickets available at face value from some of the fine folks here. Just keep an eye out.

Good luck!

I joined 10C in December. Just didn't sign up for the forums until this week. Got my lottery picks in too.

I am NOTHINGMAN

Really wanted the TO GA tickets, but care about getting in there more, so went with seats as my #1 pick, and just a 'why not' GA and my #2 this will only be my second show, first was PJ20 #2 in TO and was in the 30th row floor, could see perfectly

schapp

derbydave said:

amethgr8 said:

I disagree, in 2013 I heard of people on this board got GA as a 4th pick. all the rules of the lottery, how it exactly works, has not been disclosed. yes, it states they will all draw for 1st priority, and very hard to believe that for GA, approx 500 ticket purchases, they are not all gone on the first round, then how can someone get GA on a 3rd or 5th priority? and when they add a statement like "no matter your choice or priority, it's the luck of the draw" well I don't think anyone can make a guarantee whether someone will get ticket or will not get tickets.

they had the odds in 2013 Im pretty sure and from a member on that tour, looks like he got GA on 2nd and 3rd pick portland and skokane.

Neither Portland or Spokane were HIGH DEMAND shows!!
I've personally got tickets to shows with my 7th, 8th and 9th selections...
BUT they weren't for MSG, Philly or Toronto!!!
AGAIN...
you will NOT get tickets to these HIGH DEMAND shows,
UNLESS it is your #1 choice...
AND even MANY people who have these shows picked as #1 won't win tickets!
Sorry if you don't believe me!!

I got reserved tickets for Philly II back in 2013 as my 6th choice, and I remember that was the case for others as well.

By reading the FAQ, odds are for all entries and not based on priority; if that is indeed the case, then the odds are not direct. For example: If GA for a show is at 50%, I understand I would have more than a 1 in 2 chance of winning if I chose priority 1 for that show. We don't know how many people chose a show as their #1 priority, which is the key. Hard to say if #2 priorities have a shot without that information

derbydave

schapp said:

derbydave said:

amethgr8 said:

I disagree, in 2013 I heard of people on this board got GA as a 4th pick. all the rules of the lottery, how it exactly works, has not been disclosed. yes, it states they will all draw for 1st priority, and very hard to believe that for GA, approx 500 ticket purchases, they are not all gone on the first round, then how can someone get GA on a 3rd or 5th priority? and when they add a statement like "no matter your choice or priority, it's the luck of the draw" well I don't think anyone can make a guarantee whether someone will get ticket or will not get tickets.

they had the odds in 2013 Im pretty sure and from a member on that tour, looks like he got GA on 2nd and 3rd pick portland and skokane.

Neither Portland or Spokane were HIGH DEMAND shows!!
I've personally got tickets to shows with my 7th, 8th and 9th selections...
BUT they weren't for MSG, Philly or Toronto!!!
AGAIN...
you will NOT get tickets to these HIGH DEMAND shows,
UNLESS it is your #1 choice...
AND even MANY people who have these shows picked as #1 won't win tickets!
Sorry if you don't believe me!!

I got reserved tickets for Philly II back in 2013 as my 6th choice, and I remember that was the case for others as well.

By reading the FAQ, odds are for all entries and not based on priority; if that is indeed the case, then the odds are not direct. For example: If GA for a show is at 50%, I understand I would have more than a 1 in 2 chance of winning if I chose priority 1 for that show. We don't know how many people chose a show as their #1 priority, which is the key. Hard to say if #2 priorities have a shot without that information

We didn't have the odds tool to tell us what the percentages were for the 2013 tour...
That feature began with 2014!!
Let us know how you fare this time...
I'm still saying you will NOT get tickets to these HIGH DEMAND shows unless it's your first choice!!
Good luck in the lottery folks. :rock_on:

ally12

I know this has been asked before but my anxiety has been skyrocketing all week. Ottawa reserved is at 66% right now. I picked that as my number 1. I see the trend that when GA is going down, then reserved is going down. I am assuming that a majority of people are picking reserved as a back up. That being said once GA is called out my chances will get better because the people who got GA will get booted out of the reserved pool. So really my chances are not 66% they are more? but if it remains at 66% or drops a few and say doesn't go low as Toronto. Does everyone get tickets? Or even at 66% someone can get totally shut out?

JB111896

ally12 said:

I know this has been asked before but my anxiety has been skyrocketing all week. Ottawa reserved is at 66% right now. I picked that as my number 1. I see the trend that when GA is going down, then reserved is going down. I am assuming that a majority of people are picking reserved as a back up. That being said once GA is called out my chances will get better because the people who got GA will get booted out of the reserved pool. So really my chances are not 66% they are more? but if it remains at 66% or drops a few and say doesn't go low as Toronto. Does everyone get tickets? Or even at 66% someone can get totally shut out?

If the percentage is not over 99% there's always a chance to get shut out, but let's look at your situation realistically. If the odds for reserved seating are at 66% for all people who picked reserved seating with any of their picks, what would the odds be for those picking reserved with their first choice? If there's 1000 pairs of reserved seats available and the odds are 66% then that means 1500 people picked Ottawa reserved with one of their selections. It doesn't matter what the actual number of tickets are available because we're just looking at percentages. What you need to do next is guess what percentage of those 1500 entries are trying for GA with their first pick instead of reserved, or are trying for Toronto with their first pick before trying for Ottawa. Let's assume we believe only 1/2 the 1500 people picked reserved as their first choice. That means there are 750 entries for the 1000 ticket pairs. Everyone who picked reserved as their first choice will receive reserved seats for Ottawa and there would be 250 pairs of tickets left over for those who picked reserved with their second choice. The unknown variable is we don't know what people picked with their first choice. You need to make the assumptions of what you think other people are picking and make your choice accordingly. With the odds where they're at now, and assuming more people prefer GA to reserved and some people will try for both Toronto and Ottawa with Toronto being a higher priority, I thinks it's good odds that you will win Ottawa reserved as your first priority.

ally12

JB111896 said:

ally12 said:

I know this has been asked before but my anxiety has been skyrocketing all week. Ottawa reserved is at 66% right now. I picked that as my number 1. I see the trend that when GA is going down, then reserved is going down. I am assuming that a majority of people are picking reserved as a back up. That being said once GA is called out my chances will get better because the people who got GA will get booted out of the reserved pool. So really my chances are not 66% they are more? but if it remains at 66% or drops a few and say doesn't go low as Toronto. Does everyone get tickets? Or even at 66% someone can get totally shut out?

If the percentage is not over 99% there's always a chance to get shut out, but let's look at your situation realistically. If the odds for reserved seating are at 66% for all people who picked reserved seating with any of their picks, what would the odds be for those picking reserved with their first choice? If there's 1000 pairs of reserved seats available and the odds are 66% then that means 1500 people picked Ottawa reserved with one of their selections. It doesn't matter what the actual number of tickets are available because we're just looking at percentages. What you need to do next is guess what percentage of those 1500 entries are trying for GA with their first pick instead of reserved, or are trying for Toronto with their first pick before trying for Ottawa. Let's assume we believe only 1/2 the 1500 people picked reserved as their first choice. That means there are 750 entries for the 1000 ticket pairs. Everyone who picked reserved as their first choice will receive reserved seats for Ottawa and there would be 250 pairs of tickets left over for those who picked reserved with their second choice. The unknown variable is we don't know what people picked with their first choice. You need to make the assumptions of what you think other people are picking and make your choice accordingly. With the odds where they're at now, and assuming more people prefer GA to reserved and some people will try for both Toronto and Ottawa with Toronto being a higher priority, I thinks it's good odds that you will win Ottawa reserved as your first priority.

I really, really, really appreciate this! I am even getting used to the fact I will be on the floor.

MB93672

derbydave said:

schapp said:

derbydave said:

amethgr8 said:

I disagree, in 2013 I heard of people on this board got GA as a 4th pick. all the rules of the lottery, how it exactly works, has not been disclosed. yes, it states they will all draw for 1st priority, and very hard to believe that for GA, approx 500 ticket purchases, they are not all gone on the first round, then how can someone get GA on a 3rd or 5th priority? and when they add a statement like "no matter your choice or priority, it's the luck of the draw" well I don't think anyone can make a guarantee whether someone will get ticket or will not get tickets.

they had the odds in 2013 Im pretty sure and from a member on that tour, looks like he got GA on 2nd and 3rd pick portland and skokane.

Neither Portland or Spokane were HIGH DEMAND shows!!
I've personally got tickets to shows with my 7th, 8th and 9th selections...
BUT they weren't for MSG, Philly or Toronto!!!
AGAIN...
you will NOT get tickets to these HIGH DEMAND shows,
UNLESS it is your #1 choice...
AND even MANY people who have these shows picked as #1 won't win tickets!
Sorry if you don't believe me!!

I got reserved tickets for Philly II back in 2013 as my 6th choice, and I remember that was the case for others as well.

By reading the FAQ, odds are for all entries and not based on priority; if that is indeed the case, then the odds are not direct. For example: If GA for a show is at 50%, I understand I would have more than a 1 in 2 chance of winning if I chose priority 1 for that show. We don't know how many people chose a show as their #1 priority, which is the key. Hard to say if #2 priorities have a shot without that information

We didn't have the odds tool to tell us what the percentages were for the 2013 tour...
That feature began with 2014!!
Let us know how you fare this time...
I'm still saying you will NOT get tickets to these HIGH DEMAND shows unless it's your first choice!!
Good luck in the lottery folks. :rock_on:

Derby Dave why do all your posts look like ransom notes? Haha

yellowboy

Only 1 more day to wait!! Not that I'm counting down or anything....

derbydave

Pay ME or you'll NEVER see PJ again

Does this work for you?? :rofl:

deadendp

:rofl:

jlaustin

:rofl: