This is my favorite situation/argument in Philly sports in a long time. Just know I am following along on all of this, on this board and in general, with a big cheese smile.
we could be worse off...we could have taken a running back with the 2nd pick instead of a QB.
Darnold stinks and saquon is the man. No issues from me
Saquon is a man with a torn up knee in a position that the average career is like 3 years. Saquon say high to Zeke...or Todd Gurley...where high level play goes quickly.
This is my favorite situation/argument in Philly sports in a long time. Just know I am following along on all of this, on this board and in general, with a big cheese smile.
Lol. You are 5-7 with a -34 point differential and your quarterback is Daniel Jones.
Giants were supposed to stink and Danny ain't Carson this year.
How good did you think the Eagles were going to be? If healthy, they were probably an 8 or 9 win team. And they're far from healthy.
Also, as bad as Wentz has been, Daniel Jones is....well, Daniel Jones
What I see here is that a 2nd year QB out of Duke is having a better yeah than your $130 million man
Fair point. I see two of the worst qb's in the league this year on two of the worst teams. Smile away, Cliff!
This is my favorite situation/argument in Philly sports in a long time. Just know I am following along on all of this, on this board and in general, with a big cheese smile.
we could be worse off...we could have taken a running back with the 2nd pick instead of a QB.
Darnold stinks and saquon is the man. No issues from me
Saquon is a man with a torn up knee in a position that the average career is like 3 years. Saquon say high to Zeke...or Todd Gurley...where high level play goes quickly.
All the logic in the world won't get me upset at the Giants picking Saquon. He could never play another down.
This is my favorite situation/argument in Philly sports in a long time. Just know I am following along on all of this, on this board and in general, with a big cheese smile.
we could be worse off...we could have taken a running back with the 2nd pick instead of a QB.
Darnold stinks and saquon is the man. No issues from me
Saquon is a man with a torn up knee in a position that the average career is like 3 years. Saquon say high to Zeke...or Todd Gurley...where high level play goes quickly.
All the logic in the world won't get me upset at the Giants picking Saquon. He could never play another down.
Gotta support those Penn Staters - I understand. I've heard from friends of mine son that knew him a bit at Penn State that he is a good dude.
Mike Sando, speaking to people around the league about the situation:
Nineteen months after signing Carson Wentz to a team-record $128 million extension, the Philadelphia Eagles are benching their franchise quarterback for a rookie whose salary ranks 22nd on the team. Newly anointed starter Jalen Hurts is the third-highest-paid Jalen on the roster, behind safety Jalen Mills and receiver Jalen Reagor. This change marks a shocking pivot away from where the Eagles planned to be when they invested so much in Wentz. It’s also the most tangible indicator Wentz might not be long for Philly.
Below we will explore through the minds of NFL coaches and executives whether the Eagles should trade Wentz, what they might get in return, whether benching Wentz was the right move, which other notable NFL quarterbacks are the most interesting comps for Wentz, and much more, including a conspiracy theory that made a coach laugh out loud.
1. Should the Eagles trade Wentz?
“I don’t think so,” a former general manager said. “They gotta hang in there. He’s not playing well, he’s in a slump, but you go back and watch the tape, there are some good games. The talent is there. You just gotta figure out what’s wrong. He was really good and now the throws are late, the wrong guy and whatever, but I think the fact that he could do it once should mean he can do it again. You just have to get it out of him, and get the right people around him.”
There’s time. Players cannot be traded until March. The Eagles will gather information on Hurts for however long the rookie remains in the lineup.
“With the opt-outs and lack of practice, I wouldn’t make any major decisions based upon what happens this year,” an exec said. “Unless I had some inside information about something that is really not fixable that might be affecting him, I would just chalk this up to, ‘You know what, we are going to really evaluate stuff in the offseason and get this right because we know we have somebody here who has got all the tools and who has done it before.’ ”
If Hurts plays well, the Eagles could wind up having the highest-paid backup in NFL history. If Hurts plays poorly, the scrutiny could come off Wentz to some degree, in that the issues on offense could appear more systemic.
“Anybody who is going to take the head coaching job there is probably going to say Carson is salvageable,” another exec said. “You don’t go from being a good starter to a backup in a year. I think their best decision is, ‘We will keep Carson for a year and hope he gets back to himself’ unless someone wants to offer a trade, but I just think that is going to be really hard for them to admit (that Wentz is no longer viable).”
Without much question, Wentz provides the most talented option.
“Where are you going to find that big of a body with that many starts with that much successful tape?” a coach said. “Do you think the Bears would sign him if he was available over Nick Foles? You think the Patriots would have signed him instead of Cam Newton if he was available on Aug. 1?”
2. What could the Eagles get for Wentz if they did trade him?
“I don’t think anybody is going to give up a whole lot for him. and when I say a whole lot, I think a one (first-round pick) is reasonable,” an exec said.
Even after a down 2019 season, Wentz polled 11th among veteran starting quarterbacks in voting among 50 coaches and evaluators for my 2020 Quarterback Tiers project. That put him sixth out of nine quarterbacks in Tier 2, between Matt Ryan and Dak Prescott.
“If you are Indy and your head coach was with Wentz in Philly, do you give up a second and a fifth for Wentz, or do you roll the dice and just build through the draft?” an evaluator said. “They have the best O-line in football. Draft one, get another receiver and you have a chance to have a heckuva offense.”
There will be other options at the position, some of them cheaper than Wentz.
“I don’t think Philly would have any trouble trading Carson,” an exec said. “I just don’t know what they would get for him. He would require a lot of film study and I would try to get some inside information from people I knew on the Eagles’ staff to figure out what the hell is happening here, because this is dropping-off-a-cliff kind of stuff.”
Wentz has never played as well as Kurt Warner played at Warner’s peak with the St. Louis Rams two decades ago, but Warner does provide an interesting comparison. He went from MVP status with the Rams to injured backup to bridge starter with the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals before returning to elite status. Wentz was an MVP candidate during the Eagles’ 2017 Super Bowl season.
“I still think Wentz can play,” an offensive coach who studied Wentz in the 2016 draft said. “I just think their offense, if you track the way it has gone, it has gotten worse each year. Maybe when Frank Reich was there, he was able to influence it, but that has gone away.”
One unconventional trade scenario would involve the Eagles reaching agreement on a trade to be executed in June, when league accounting rules allow teams to defer salary-cap implications. The Eagles would not get draft compensation in 2021 under such a scenario.
“If you are Philly, maybe you are fine with that,” an exec said. “Someone gives you a two (second-round pick) in 2022. If you are trading him to someone like Frank Reich, who knows him, maybe they are OK with that. Or, Philly pays the $15 million (in guaranteed salary for 2022) and it’s a cap debacle, but they get more in return.”
3. Are there cap or cash implications that could limit the Eagles’ options in a trade?
The biggest cap complication for 2021 has nothing to do with the Eagles or Wentz. It stems from pandemic-induced revenue shortfalls that threaten cap allotments. The Eagles’ cap situation is one of the NFL’s worst after the team doubled down on some aging players to keep open a championship window that, in retrospect, closed some time ago. Teams in Philly’s situation sometimes convert base salaries to signing bonuses for their highly paid quarterbacks, creating flexibility in the short term at the expense of future caps. That would not make sense for the Eagles if Wentz suddenly were not in their plans.
“They were probably planning on converting Wentz and now people are talking about trading him,” an exec said. “That puts a whole wrench into your cap planning. If they trade Wentz, maybe they convert a guy like (Darius) Slay instead and maybe (Javon) Hargrave and just keep dealing with that in 2022. I don’t know.”
Trading Wentz after June 1 would provide significant cap relief for 2021, but the timing — well after free agency — would be less than ideal.
Wentz’s contract is scheduled to count more than $30 million against the Eagles’ cap whether or not he’s on the roster. While conventional wisdom suggests a team might resist having so much cap space dedicated to a player no longer on the roster, that line of thinking is increasingly outdated. The Pittsburgh Steelers carried more than $21 million in so-called dead money for receiver Antonio Brown after trading him to the Raiders. They saved cash and moved on from a player they no longer wanted on the roster.
By trading Wentz, Philly would save $25 million in 2021 cash while escaping $15 million in 2022 salary that will become fully guaranteed if Wentz is on the roster on the third day of the 2021 league year.
“There is no problem for the Eagles trading him with regard to the cap,” a longtime team contract negotiator said. “The factor would be with regard to the emotional attachment they have for the player, and the organizational commitment apart from the money.”
4. Are there cap or cash implications that could dissuade teams from acquiring Wentz?
Wentz’s contract would be relatively easy to acquire for teams willing to make a two-year commitment. Wentz is due to receive a guaranteed $10 million roster bonus on the third day of the 2021 league year. He has a $22 million salary in 2022, with $15 million of that locking in at the same time the roster bonus is due. The presence of that pending $15 million guarantee is important. In 2016, Denver decided against acquiring Colin Kaepernick from San Francisco because a similar guarantee would have effectively forced the Broncos to anoint Kaepernick as their unquestioned starter. Any team acquiring Wentz’s contract as-is would similarly be anointing him as its starter, for practical purposes.
“The other team would likely have to say, ‘We are willing to commit ourselves to him for two seasons at $47 million,’ which is reasonable for a starting quarterback,” an exec said, “but understanding that if things go really badly the first year, they are stuck with $15 million one way or another the next year.”
5. Given the Eagles’ aging and expensive roster, should they hit the reset button and start over?
The Eagles were facing a roster reckoning even if Wentz and the offense had functioned at a high level this season, and even if the salary cap were expected to expand instead of contract. A cap manager from another team struggled to find enough players to release for Philly to comply with the projected $175 million cap for next season.
“Holy shit,” the cap manager said at one point.
“They are screwed in general,” he said a few moments later.
Finally: “This is a bear.”
“I would advocate tearing it all down and starting over,” a top exec from another team said. “Do you do that with Carson? Do you trade Carson and play Hurts for a year and see where it goes because he can be a run-around guy? It all depends who you hire as head coach.”
6. Are the Eagles handling this situation the right way?
“It’s almost never done right and it’s always picked apart,” a defensive coach said, “except for Andy Reid.”
The Reid-coached 2017 Kansas City Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes in the spring, but stuck with veteran starter Alex Smith until the final game of the regular season. Along the way, Smith and the offense slumped badly. The team lost six of seven games at one point. Smith tossed three touchdown passes with four interceptions during a three-game streak in which Kansas City scored 17, nine and 10 points and lost all three. Instead of benching Smith and deviating from the long-term plan for Mahomes, Reid benched himself as the play caller, handing those duties to assistant Matt Nagy. The Chiefs then scored 31, 26, 30 and 29 points over their next four games before giving Mahomes his first start in Week 17. The Chiefs then transitioned to Mahomes the next season.
The Eagles are not nearly as talented as those Chiefs. Hurts does not resemble Mahomes. But the point is, Kansas City had a clear plan and stuck to it, even when the losses piled up. The Eagles’ plan is less clear.
“I know there’s a large sentiment that once you make this move, you can’t go back,” an evaluator said. “I don’t personally buy that. It depends on the people. It’s been going so bad for this guy, you can make a case that taking a step back for a couple weeks may not be the worst thing for him. It’s risky for the club because if Hurts plays really well, now you have the most expensive backup in the history of the sport, and what do you do with him? I do think if Hurts struggles, it takes the pressure off of Wentz.”
The 2006 Dallas Cowboys had lost two of three games when coach Bill Parcells benched 14th-year veteran Drew Bledsoe, a player Parcells had drafted No. 1 overall while with New England, for the unproven Tony Romo. Unlike Hurts, Romo had years in the Cowboys’ system. He had shined in preseason. Parcells had anointed him. There was buzz around Romo at that time. The Eagles haven’t implemented a coherent on-field plan for Hurts to this point, sprinkling him into the offense with underwhelming results and no panache.
“Maybe I’m a Carson truther, but to me, he isn’t getting enough help and this roster is bad and that needs to be fixed,” an exec said. “Shame on them for putting Hurts out there because that screws everything up. Hurts did not play well enough on Sunday to earn the starting job. If you look at teams that have dealt with quarterback situations in the past, they don’t do what Philly did.”
7. There could be strategic reasons for the Eagles to bench Wentz, although those require speculation.
“I presume they know they are going to fire their coach and so they are just saving Carson the pounding,” an exec said.
This theory made a former head coach chuckle admiringly.
“The conspiracy theory of playing Hurts to protect Wentz, knowing you are going to change the coach, is brilliant,” this coach said. “Whether it’s true or not, it’s brilliant. I think the coach is trying to save his job, and what is the great way of doing that? Change quarterbacks. Blame it on Wentz.”
Or, bench a player who is struggling.
“When you buy into the whole program that the quarterback has to be the face of the franchise, you are setting it up for your own complications,” an exec said. “Everyone says, ‘How can you pay him $128 million and start someone else?’ The answer is, ineffective play.”
The Eagles in Week 14 face the New Orleans Saints, owners of the NFL’s top-ranked defense by expected points added (EPA) over their past six games. Perhaps Wentz could use the down week to recalibrate, then return against, say, Arizona the following week.
“When you drafted Jalen Hurts in the second round, you were asking for this,” a top agent said. “At some point, when you have a quarterback you have committed to, give him weapons, give him help. Instead of giving him help, you drafted a guy to sit behind him that people want to see play. You asked for it.”
Jason Kelce is a treasure and an honest man although Juggler will disagree with his assessment of Wentz.
lol...did you expect Kelce to come out and rip Carson?
No but he over praised him...like someone you accused of doing that here
Oh wow. The center heaped praise upon his quarterback? Goodness gracious. I don't think that ever happened before. haha
Or maybe he and a certain poster here are just smarter than you. Remember he was one of the first to call out your boy Chip Kelly 😜
Dude it's 2020 and... you're talking about Chip Kelly still? 10-6, 10-6 and 7-9 after taking over a 4-12 team. Oh the horror!
Looking forward to Wentz's HOF induction ceremony. I think you're shooting for 2039 right? lol
I thought this was a good article today by David Murphy. The Roethlisberger part is pretty interesting I thought.
12/11/20:
I’ve come to believe that, a generation from now, psychologists will look back on the year 2020 and conclude that our entire society was clinically insane. So it doesn’t surprise me that most of the Carson Wentz takes I’ve read seem divorced from objective reality.
The disconnect is best illustrated by an infographic that you’ve probably seen floating around the content-sphere. In one column are Wentz’s statistics in his first four seasons in the league. In the second column are his statistics from this season. Above the table is a headline that, depending on the source, has some iteration of the phrase, “What happened to Carson Wentz?”
The amusing part of this breakdown is that it usually begins with the number of games in each sample. There, in the first row of the table, just below the headline that wonders how the heck a quarterback can instantly transform from a perennial Top 10 performer into one of the lowest-rated passers in the league, are the following numbers:
2016-19: 56 games
2020: 12 games
Golly, the answer to the question feels like it is this close, doesn’t it? Can’t quite put my finger on it. Anyway, here’s a look at Wentz’s salary cap hit for next season! LOL!
I’m not a trained mathematician, but I do know that if somebody tasked me with predicting the future behavior of some entity, and if the only available evidence of that entity’s past behavior were two conflicting datasets, the first thing I would do is look at the size of those datasets. And if one of those datasets happened to be five times larger than the other, I would at least hesitate before concluding that the smaller dataset was the better predictor of the future.
Look, if the month of June ended with five straight days of rain, you’d pack an umbrella, not build an ark. That is where we are with Wentz. Can we rule out the possibility that Wentz’s struggles will prove to be biblical? Of course not. Is there a chance that the hit that knocked him out of last year’s Wild Card game will prove to have been one hit too many? Sure. But it’s hard to conclude that is likely to be the case.
Take, for instance, the small handful of me-against-the-world performances we’ve seen Wentz deliver this season. Consider also the 28 consecutive regular-season games that he has started. Both offer plenty of reason to believe that his problems are not physiological. Besides, nobody has a closer view of Wentz, or more information about his health, than Doug Pederson. It is notable, then, that Pederson continued to run Wentz back out there as long as he did.
If you were responsible for deciding how to proceed with Wentz from your armchair, the only reasonable course of action would be to assume that Wentz’s bad season is exactly that. One bad season. The only reason he looks existentially bad is that the Eagles are an existential mess around him. The guy has been sacked 50 times. He’s been crushed on countless other occasions. Often, when it looks like he is holding the ball too long, it’s because there are seven guys blocking for him and three receivers blanketed down field. And he still ends up getting crushed.
As Jason Kelce noted earlier this week, the Eagles are not your average bad football team. They are dysfunctional. You could design the best quarterback in the world, and if you forced him to play 7-on-11, he’d look like the worst quarterback in the world. The Eagles might be playing 11-on-11, but the logic stands. Every quarterback’s competence is at least partially dependent on his supporting cast, and there is a threshold at which the deficiencies of that supporting cast render him useless.
None of that means Wentz would be having a great season if he had more help. But there have been plenty of good quarterbacks who have had not-good seasons.
Take Ben Roethlisberger. In his fifth year in the league, the future Hall of Famer threw 15 interceptions on 469 attempts, fumbled 14 times, completed 59.9 percent of his passes, and finished with a Total QBR that was four points lower than Wentz’s this season. Sure, he was two biological years younger than Wentz. But he has gone on to play 12 more seasons and counting. The biggest difference between Roethlisberger’s fifth season and Wentz’s is the Steelers had the NFL’s top-ranked defense, rushed the ball 29 times per game, went 12-4, and won the Super Bowl.
I know, I know. Oh, by the way, they won the Super Bowl. Scoff all you want. Point is, people are using Wentz’s individual numbers to conclude that he’s more cooked than a Trump Steak. But the only reason Roethlisberger’s regression wasn’t as bad as Wentz’s is Wentz’s numbers were better in his first four seasons.
Matt Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr -- all have had seasons that were on par with Wentz’s current season. That might sound like faint praise, but keep your eye on the point: all have gone on to outperform those seasons.
There’s a reason why ESPN.com’s preseason panel of executives, scouts and other personnel men ranked Wentz as the eighth-best quarterback in the game. There’s a reason why a recent story on that website quoted a variety of GMs as saying that Wentz was a victim of the team around him.
Again, could they be wrong? No doubt. Could Jalen Hurts far outperform Wentz over the next four weeks? Absolutely. It might even be probable, given that Hurts is inarguably better equipped to run for his life. But it takes a lot longer than four games to establish oneself as a legitimate NFL starter. It’s highly unlikely that Hurts will show as much as Lamar Jackson did last season, and we’ve seen how quickly the league has adjusted to the reigning MVP.
Fifty-six is greater than 16, and 12, and four. You want to compare numbers? That’s where you should start.
8/28/98- Camden, NJ
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
4/28/16- Philly, PA
4/29/16- Philly, PA
5/1/16- NYC
5/2/16- NYC
9/2/18- Boston, MA
9/4/18- Boston, MA
9/14/22- Camden, NJ
9/7/24- Philly, PA
9/9/24- Philly, PA
Tres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly. PA
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly, PA
RNDM- 3/9/16- Philly, PA
Saints seemed pretty disinterested most of the game. Eagles defense played well. D-line especially was great. Taysom Hill is pretty average though. Nice effort by defensive backs with all the injuries.
Hurts made some nice plays running the ball. Was ok in the passing game. Nice to see them getting Reagor a few more touches although not sure why he isn't returning punts all the time.
Well having a quarterback who makes quick decisions, protects the football, and has mobility verses a quarterback who does not possess those qualities makes a world of a difference.
Edit---ha, forgot about the fumble. Point remains, though. I think this was the first game all year with no sacks and no ints and it happened against the best defense in the league.
Well having a quarterback who makes quick decisions, protects the football, and has mobility verses a quarterback who does not possess those qualities makes a world of a difference.
Edit---ha, forgot about the fumble. Point remains, though. I think this was the first game all year with no sacks and no ints and it happened against the best defense in the league.
and probably should have had a pick 6 but the defensive back missed it. Quick decisions was definitely a positive but most of those decisions were to just tuck it and run. Not a long term viable plan in the passing game though. Really impressed with his demeanor and overall calmness overall.
Pederson seemed to call a better game as well by limiting his down feel chances.
I do find it funny the same media and fans who insisted Wentz had to stop running and playing loosely because it would lead to injuries are now the same ones praising Hurts for tucking the ball and running it a lot.
Well having a quarterback who makes quick decisions, protects the football, and has mobility verses a quarterback who does not possess those qualities makes a world of a difference.
Edit---ha, forgot about the fumble. Point remains, though. I think this was the first game all year with no sacks and no ints and it happened against the best defense in the league.
and probably should have had a pick 6 but the defensive back missed it. Quick decisions was definitely a positive but most of those decisions were to just tuck it and run. Not a long term viable plan in the passing game though. Really impressed with his demeanor and overall calmness overall.
Pederson seemed to call a better game as well by limiting his down feel chances.
I do find it funny the same media and fans who insisted Wentz had to stop running and playing loosely because it would lead to injuries are now the same ones praising Hurts for tucking the ball and running it a lot.
Haven't seen too much of that. From whom?
Biggest criticism of Wentz, and rightly so, is holding onto the football entirely too long. Saw none of that yesterday. Refreshing change.
Well having a quarterback who makes quick decisions, protects the football, and has mobility verses a quarterback who does not possess those qualities makes a world of a difference.
Edit---ha, forgot about the fumble. Point remains, though. I think this was the first game all year with no sacks and no ints and it happened against the best defense in the league.
and probably should have had a pick 6 but the defensive back missed it. Quick decisions was definitely a positive but most of those decisions were to just tuck it and run. Not a long term viable plan in the passing game though. Really impressed with his demeanor and overall calmness overall.
Pederson seemed to call a better game as well by limiting his down feel chances.
I do find it funny the same media and fans who insisted Wentz had to stop running and playing loosely because it would lead to injuries are now the same ones praising Hurts for tucking the ball and running it a lot.
Haven't seen too much of that. From whom?
Biggest criticism of Wentz, and rightly so, is holding onto the football entirely too long. Saw none of that yesterday. Refreshing change.
well everyone praising his quick decisions...his quick decisions were mostly to tuck it and run in the passing game.
and that reminds me, the one terrible Pederson play call was the 4th down where he had Hurts under center and try to run the sneak. Keep him in the gun and let him use his speed and decision making to get the 1st down not have him under center. he's not big enough to run the sneak with a clogged line there.
Fulgham getting no snaps makes no sense. I know Pederson said he had to work harder but come on no plays at all? I guess with a lot of 12 personnel plays that cuts down the receiver plays but not 1 for Alshon Jeffrey?
Yeah, give me "tuck and run" and throwing it away verses taking bad sacks and turning the ball over all day long, dude. Tons of injuries on the line requires a quarterback to not be a statue and to make decisions much faster than Carson was this year. Sorry.
Yeah, give me "tuck and run" and throwing it away verses taking bad sacks and turning the ball over all day long, dude. Tons of injuries on the line requires a quarterback to not be a statue and to make decisions much faster than Carson was this year. Sorry.
lol dude I said his quick decisions were a good thing BUT I am not wrong to say that almost everyone in the media and fan base has repeatedly said to Carson you can't play that way because it leads to injuries. fuck even a few people blamed last years cheap shot injury in the playoffs on Carson trying to make a play.
Yeah, give me "tuck and run" and throwing it away verses taking bad sacks and turning the ball over all day long, dude. Tons of injuries on the line requires a quarterback to not be a statue and to make decisions much faster than Carson was this year. Sorry.
lol dude I said his quick decisions were a good thing BUT I am not wrong to say that almost everyone in the media and fan base has repeatedly said to Carson you can't play that way because it leads to injuries. fuck even a few people blamed last years cheap shot injury in the playoffs on Carson trying to make a play.
Yeah I don't know about that. Most people I talk to are fine with him either taking off running or throwing it away when nothing is there. Carson's big issue has been slow decision making which has lead to a lot of unnecessary sacks and turn overs. That is by far his biggest criticism from fans and media, and rightly so.
In fact, I think most people are mad that Doug didn't get him out of the pocket more often. You see that here in this thread.
Comments
https://theathletic.com/2248638/2020/12/09/carson-wentz-benched-trade-options
Nineteen months after signing Carson Wentz to a team-record $128 million extension, the Philadelphia Eagles are benching their franchise quarterback for a rookie whose salary ranks 22nd on the team. Newly anointed starter Jalen Hurts is the third-highest-paid Jalen on the roster, behind safety Jalen Mills and receiver Jalen Reagor. This change marks a shocking pivot away from where the Eagles planned to be when they invested so much in Wentz. It’s also the most tangible indicator Wentz might not be long for Philly.
Below we will explore through the minds of NFL coaches and executives whether the Eagles should trade Wentz, what they might get in return, whether benching Wentz was the right move, which other notable NFL quarterbacks are the most interesting comps for Wentz, and much more, including a conspiracy theory that made a coach laugh out loud.
1. Should the Eagles trade Wentz?
“I don’t think so,” a former general manager said. “They gotta hang in there. He’s not playing well, he’s in a slump, but you go back and watch the tape, there are some good games. The talent is there. You just gotta figure out what’s wrong. He was really good and now the throws are late, the wrong guy and whatever, but I think the fact that he could do it once should mean he can do it again. You just have to get it out of him, and get the right people around him.”
There’s time. Players cannot be traded until March. The Eagles will gather information on Hurts for however long the rookie remains in the lineup.
“With the opt-outs and lack of practice, I wouldn’t make any major decisions based upon what happens this year,” an exec said. “Unless I had some inside information about something that is really not fixable that might be affecting him, I would just chalk this up to, ‘You know what, we are going to really evaluate stuff in the offseason and get this right because we know we have somebody here who has got all the tools and who has done it before.’ ”
If Hurts plays well, the Eagles could wind up having the highest-paid backup in NFL history. If Hurts plays poorly, the scrutiny could come off Wentz to some degree, in that the issues on offense could appear more systemic.
“Anybody who is going to take the head coaching job there is probably going to say Carson is salvageable,” another exec said. “You don’t go from being a good starter to a backup in a year. I think their best decision is, ‘We will keep Carson for a year and hope he gets back to himself’ unless someone wants to offer a trade, but I just think that is going to be really hard for them to admit (that Wentz is no longer viable).”
Without much question, Wentz provides the most talented option.
“Where are you going to find that big of a body with that many starts with that much successful tape?” a coach said. “Do you think the Bears would sign him if he was available over Nick Foles? You think the Patriots would have signed him instead of Cam Newton if he was available on Aug. 1?”
2. What could the Eagles get for Wentz if they did trade him?
“I don’t think anybody is going to give up a whole lot for him. and when I say a whole lot, I think a one (first-round pick) is reasonable,” an exec said.
Even after a down 2019 season, Wentz polled 11th among veteran starting quarterbacks in voting among 50 coaches and evaluators for my 2020 Quarterback Tiers project. That put him sixth out of nine quarterbacks in Tier 2, between Matt Ryan and Dak Prescott.
“If you are Indy and your head coach was with Wentz in Philly, do you give up a second and a fifth for Wentz, or do you roll the dice and just build through the draft?” an evaluator said. “They have the best O-line in football. Draft one, get another receiver and you have a chance to have a heckuva offense.”
There will be other options at the position, some of them cheaper than Wentz.
“I don’t think Philly would have any trouble trading Carson,” an exec said. “I just don’t know what they would get for him. He would require a lot of film study and I would try to get some inside information from people I knew on the Eagles’ staff to figure out what the hell is happening here, because this is dropping-off-a-cliff kind of stuff.”
Wentz has never played as well as Kurt Warner played at Warner’s peak with the St. Louis Rams two decades ago, but Warner does provide an interesting comparison. He went from MVP status with the Rams to injured backup to bridge starter with the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals before returning to elite status. Wentz was an MVP candidate during the Eagles’ 2017 Super Bowl season.
“I still think Wentz can play,” an offensive coach who studied Wentz in the 2016 draft said. “I just think their offense, if you track the way it has gone, it has gotten worse each year. Maybe when Frank Reich was there, he was able to influence it, but that has gone away.”
One unconventional trade scenario would involve the Eagles reaching agreement on a trade to be executed in June, when league accounting rules allow teams to defer salary-cap implications. The Eagles would not get draft compensation in 2021 under such a scenario.
“If you are Philly, maybe you are fine with that,” an exec said. “Someone gives you a two (second-round pick) in 2022. If you are trading him to someone like Frank Reich, who knows him, maybe they are OK with that. Or, Philly pays the $15 million (in guaranteed salary for 2022) and it’s a cap debacle, but they get more in return.”
3. Are there cap or cash implications that could limit the Eagles’ options in a trade?
The biggest cap complication for 2021 has nothing to do with the Eagles or Wentz. It stems from pandemic-induced revenue shortfalls that threaten cap allotments. The Eagles’ cap situation is one of the NFL’s worst after the team doubled down on some aging players to keep open a championship window that, in retrospect, closed some time ago. Teams in Philly’s situation sometimes convert base salaries to signing bonuses for their highly paid quarterbacks, creating flexibility in the short term at the expense of future caps. That would not make sense for the Eagles if Wentz suddenly were not in their plans.
“They were probably planning on converting Wentz and now people are talking about trading him,” an exec said. “That puts a whole wrench into your cap planning. If they trade Wentz, maybe they convert a guy like (Darius) Slay instead and maybe (Javon) Hargrave and just keep dealing with that in 2022. I don’t know.”
Trading Wentz after June 1 would provide significant cap relief for 2021, but the timing — well after free agency — would be less than ideal.
Wentz’s contract is scheduled to count more than $30 million against the Eagles’ cap whether or not he’s on the roster. While conventional wisdom suggests a team might resist having so much cap space dedicated to a player no longer on the roster, that line of thinking is increasingly outdated. The Pittsburgh Steelers carried more than $21 million in so-called dead money for receiver Antonio Brown after trading him to the Raiders. They saved cash and moved on from a player they no longer wanted on the roster.
By trading Wentz, Philly would save $25 million in 2021 cash while escaping $15 million in 2022 salary that will become fully guaranteed if Wentz is on the roster on the third day of the 2021 league year.
“There is no problem for the Eagles trading him with regard to the cap,” a longtime team contract negotiator said. “The factor would be with regard to the emotional attachment they have for the player, and the organizational commitment apart from the money.”
4. Are there cap or cash implications that could dissuade teams from acquiring Wentz?
Wentz’s contract would be relatively easy to acquire for teams willing to make a two-year commitment. Wentz is due to receive a guaranteed $10 million roster bonus on the third day of the 2021 league year. He has a $22 million salary in 2022, with $15 million of that locking in at the same time the roster bonus is due. The presence of that pending $15 million guarantee is important. In 2016, Denver decided against acquiring Colin Kaepernick from San Francisco because a similar guarantee would have effectively forced the Broncos to anoint Kaepernick as their unquestioned starter. Any team acquiring Wentz’s contract as-is would similarly be anointing him as its starter, for practical purposes.
“The other team would likely have to say, ‘We are willing to commit ourselves to him for two seasons at $47 million,’ which is reasonable for a starting quarterback,” an exec said, “but understanding that if things go really badly the first year, they are stuck with $15 million one way or another the next year.”
5. Given the Eagles’ aging and expensive roster, should they hit the reset button and start over?
The Eagles were facing a roster reckoning even if Wentz and the offense had functioned at a high level this season, and even if the salary cap were expected to expand instead of contract. A cap manager from another team struggled to find enough players to release for Philly to comply with the projected $175 million cap for next season.
“Holy shit,” the cap manager said at one point.
“They are screwed in general,” he said a few moments later.
Finally: “This is a bear.”
“I would advocate tearing it all down and starting over,” a top exec from another team said. “Do you do that with Carson? Do you trade Carson and play Hurts for a year and see where it goes because he can be a run-around guy? It all depends who you hire as head coach.”
6. Are the Eagles handling this situation the right way?
“It’s almost never done right and it’s always picked apart,” a defensive coach said, “except for Andy Reid.”
The Reid-coached 2017 Kansas City Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes in the spring, but stuck with veteran starter Alex Smith until the final game of the regular season. Along the way, Smith and the offense slumped badly. The team lost six of seven games at one point. Smith tossed three touchdown passes with four interceptions during a three-game streak in which Kansas City scored 17, nine and 10 points and lost all three. Instead of benching Smith and deviating from the long-term plan for Mahomes, Reid benched himself as the play caller, handing those duties to assistant Matt Nagy. The Chiefs then scored 31, 26, 30 and 29 points over their next four games before giving Mahomes his first start in Week 17. The Chiefs then transitioned to Mahomes the next season.
The Eagles are not nearly as talented as those Chiefs. Hurts does not resemble Mahomes. But the point is, Kansas City had a clear plan and stuck to it, even when the losses piled up. The Eagles’ plan is less clear.
“I know there’s a large sentiment that once you make this move, you can’t go back,” an evaluator said. “I don’t personally buy that. It depends on the people. It’s been going so bad for this guy, you can make a case that taking a step back for a couple weeks may not be the worst thing for him. It’s risky for the club because if Hurts plays really well, now you have the most expensive backup in the history of the sport, and what do you do with him? I do think if Hurts struggles, it takes the pressure off of Wentz.”
The 2006 Dallas Cowboys had lost two of three games when coach Bill Parcells benched 14th-year veteran Drew Bledsoe, a player Parcells had drafted No. 1 overall while with New England, for the unproven Tony Romo. Unlike Hurts, Romo had years in the Cowboys’ system. He had shined in preseason. Parcells had anointed him. There was buzz around Romo at that time. The Eagles haven’t implemented a coherent on-field plan for Hurts to this point, sprinkling him into the offense with underwhelming results and no panache.
“Maybe I’m a Carson truther, but to me, he isn’t getting enough help and this roster is bad and that needs to be fixed,” an exec said. “Shame on them for putting Hurts out there because that screws everything up. Hurts did not play well enough on Sunday to earn the starting job. If you look at teams that have dealt with quarterback situations in the past, they don’t do what Philly did.”
7. There could be strategic reasons for the Eagles to bench Wentz, although those require speculation.
“I presume they know they are going to fire their coach and so they are just saving Carson the pounding,” an exec said.
This theory made a former head coach chuckle admiringly.
“The conspiracy theory of playing Hurts to protect Wentz, knowing you are going to change the coach, is brilliant,” this coach said. “Whether it’s true or not, it’s brilliant. I think the coach is trying to save his job, and what is the great way of doing that? Change quarterbacks. Blame it on Wentz.”
Or, bench a player who is struggling.
“When you buy into the whole program that the quarterback has to be the face of the franchise, you are setting it up for your own complications,” an exec said. “Everyone says, ‘How can you pay him $128 million and start someone else?’ The answer is, ineffective play.”
The Eagles in Week 14 face the New Orleans Saints, owners of the NFL’s top-ranked defense by expected points added (EPA) over their past six games. Perhaps Wentz could use the down week to recalibrate, then return against, say, Arizona the following week.
“When you drafted Jalen Hurts in the second round, you were asking for this,” a top agent said. “At some point, when you have a quarterback you have committed to, give him weapons, give him help. Instead of giving him help, you drafted a guy to sit behind him that people want to see play. You asked for it.”
haha
Looking forward to Wentz's HOF induction ceremony. I think you're shooting for 2039 right? lol
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
12/11/20:
I’ve come to believe that, a generation from now, psychologists will look back on the year 2020 and conclude that our entire society was clinically insane. So it doesn’t surprise me that most of the Carson Wentz takes I’ve read seem divorced from objective reality.
The disconnect is best illustrated by an infographic that you’ve probably seen floating around the content-sphere. In one column are Wentz’s statistics in his first four seasons in the league. In the second column are his statistics from this season. Above the table is a headline that, depending on the source, has some iteration of the phrase, “What happened to Carson Wentz?”
The amusing part of this breakdown is that it usually begins with the number of games in each sample. There, in the first row of the table, just below the headline that wonders how the heck a quarterback can instantly transform from a perennial Top 10 performer into one of the lowest-rated passers in the league, are the following numbers:
2016-19: 56 games
2020: 12 games
Golly, the answer to the question feels like it is this close, doesn’t it? Can’t quite put my finger on it. Anyway, here’s a look at Wentz’s salary cap hit for next season! LOL!
I’m not a trained mathematician, but I do know that if somebody tasked me with predicting the future behavior of some entity, and if the only available evidence of that entity’s past behavior were two conflicting datasets, the first thing I would do is look at the size of those datasets. And if one of those datasets happened to be five times larger than the other, I would at least hesitate before concluding that the smaller dataset was the better predictor of the future.
Look, if the month of June ended with five straight days of rain, you’d pack an umbrella, not build an ark. That is where we are with Wentz. Can we rule out the possibility that Wentz’s struggles will prove to be biblical? Of course not. Is there a chance that the hit that knocked him out of last year’s Wild Card game will prove to have been one hit too many? Sure. But it’s hard to conclude that is likely to be the case.
Take, for instance, the small handful of me-against-the-world performances we’ve seen Wentz deliver this season. Consider also the 28 consecutive regular-season games that he has started. Both offer plenty of reason to believe that his problems are not physiological. Besides, nobody has a closer view of Wentz, or more information about his health, than Doug Pederson. It is notable, then, that Pederson continued to run Wentz back out there as long as he did.
If you were responsible for deciding how to proceed with Wentz from your armchair, the only reasonable course of action would be to assume that Wentz’s bad season is exactly that. One bad season. The only reason he looks existentially bad is that the Eagles are an existential mess around him. The guy has been sacked 50 times. He’s been crushed on countless other occasions. Often, when it looks like he is holding the ball too long, it’s because there are seven guys blocking for him and three receivers blanketed down field. And he still ends up getting crushed.
As Jason Kelce noted earlier this week, the Eagles are not your average bad football team. They are dysfunctional. You could design the best quarterback in the world, and if you forced him to play 7-on-11, he’d look like the worst quarterback in the world. The Eagles might be playing 11-on-11, but the logic stands. Every quarterback’s competence is at least partially dependent on his supporting cast, and there is a threshold at which the deficiencies of that supporting cast render him useless.
None of that means Wentz would be having a great season if he had more help. But there have been plenty of good quarterbacks who have had not-good seasons.
Take Ben Roethlisberger. In his fifth year in the league, the future Hall of Famer threw 15 interceptions on 469 attempts, fumbled 14 times, completed 59.9 percent of his passes, and finished with a Total QBR that was four points lower than Wentz’s this season. Sure, he was two biological years younger than Wentz. But he has gone on to play 12 more seasons and counting. The biggest difference between Roethlisberger’s fifth season and Wentz’s is the Steelers had the NFL’s top-ranked defense, rushed the ball 29 times per game, went 12-4, and won the Super Bowl.
I know, I know. Oh, by the way, they won the Super Bowl. Scoff all you want. Point is, people are using Wentz’s individual numbers to conclude that he’s more cooked than a Trump Steak. But the only reason Roethlisberger’s regression wasn’t as bad as Wentz’s is Wentz’s numbers were better in his first four seasons.
Matt Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr -- all have had seasons that were on par with Wentz’s current season. That might sound like faint praise, but keep your eye on the point: all have gone on to outperform those seasons.
There’s a reason why ESPN.com’s preseason panel of executives, scouts and other personnel men ranked Wentz as the eighth-best quarterback in the game. There’s a reason why a recent story on that website quoted a variety of GMs as saying that Wentz was a victim of the team around him.
Again, could they be wrong? No doubt. Could Jalen Hurts far outperform Wentz over the next four weeks? Absolutely. It might even be probable, given that Hurts is inarguably better equipped to run for his life. But it takes a lot longer than four games to establish oneself as a legitimate NFL starter. It’s highly unlikely that Hurts will show as much as Lamar Jackson did last season, and we’ve seen how quickly the league has adjusted to the reigning MVP.
Fifty-six is greater than 16, and 12, and four. You want to compare numbers? That’s where you should start.
I'm thinking it's just a bad year for him with a bad team around him.
Also, I'm surprised he hasn't got hurt with the pounding he's taken this season.
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
4/28/16- Philly, PA
4/29/16- Philly, PA
5/1/16- NYC
5/2/16- NYC
9/2/18- Boston, MA
9/4/18- Boston, MA
9/14/22- Camden, NJ
9/7/24- Philly, PA
9/9/24- Philly, PA
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly, PA
RNDM- 3/9/16- Philly, PA
Hurts made some nice plays running the ball. Was ok in the passing game. Nice to see them getting Reagor a few more touches although not sure why he isn't returning punts all the time.
The offense got out of the teens (!!) for the first time in over a month against one of the top defenses in the league. A fucking month.
Edit---ha, forgot about the fumble. Point remains, though. I think this was the first game all year with no sacks and no ints and it happened against the best defense in the league.
Pederson seemed to call a better game as well by limiting his down feel chances.
I do find it funny the same media and fans who insisted Wentz had to stop running and playing loosely because it would lead to injuries are now the same ones praising Hurts for tucking the ball and running it a lot.
Biggest criticism of Wentz, and rightly so, is holding onto the football entirely too long. Saw none of that yesterday. Refreshing change.
and that reminds me, the one terrible Pederson play call was the 4th down where he had Hurts under center and try to run the sneak. Keep him in the gun and let him use his speed and decision making to get the 1st down not have him under center. he's not big enough to run the sneak with a clogged line there.
Fulgham getting no snaps makes no sense. I know Pederson said he had to work harder but come on no plays at all? I guess with a lot of 12 personnel plays that cuts down the receiver plays but not 1 for Alshon Jeffrey?
Yeah, give me "tuck and run" and throwing it away verses taking bad sacks and turning the ball over all day long, dude. Tons of injuries on the line requires a quarterback to not be a statue and to make decisions much faster than Carson was this year. Sorry.
In fact, I think most people are mad that Doug didn't get him out of the pocket more often. You see that here in this thread.