Another look at voting polls.

brianlux

An interesting perspective on some of the polls out there:

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/nati ... 15586.html

National polls are meaningless at this stage in the election

One would think that Gallup, Pew, Rasmussen, every sufficiently wealthy news organization and anyone else interested in conducting a poll would be familiar with the basics of the American electoral system. Why they all insist on continuing to waste precious ink on national polls, then, is completely mystifying.

Gallup's latest poll of registered voters reports that former Gov. Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are tied nationally, 48 to 48 percent. Gallup's latest poll of likely voters, based on a complex set of assumptions about voter turnout, has Romney leading Obama by 5 percentage points, 51 to 46.

These figures are based on a national sample, so they theoretically include voters from Ohio, Florida and Virginia. They also include voters from Wyoming, California, Alabama, Delaware and about 40 other states whose voters could not possibly be any less relevant to the outcome on Nov. 6.

At this stage in the election, like any sufficiently close election, the fate of the candidates rests with fewer than a half-dozen states. The continuing snapshots of national polls are useful for pollsters and academics, who are interested in things like expected vote share or the probability of victory in the national popular vote. Most stakeholders care only about the likelihood of victory in the Electoral College, and a national poll is not very useful at this point.

This is why most prognosticators consider Obama to have a far higher chance of victory than the national polls would suggest. The Signal has Obama at a 65 percent chance of victory, while Nate Silver gives him a 75 percent chance against Romney. A small, demented chorus of observers has recently dinged Silver for this conclusion, citing various gut feelings to the contrary.

Odds of Obama victory vs. polls

Sources: Betfair, Intrade, IEM, HuffPost's Pollster and RealClearPolitics

Any way you slice it, Obama is leading in states that account for well over 270 electoral votes. As we've said a million times before, Obama needs only Ohio, Florida or Virginia to prevent Romney from reaching 270 electoral votes in most scenarios. Romney needs all three.

Romney maintains a slight lead in aggregations of many polls. HuffPost's Pollster listed six new polls on Monday, and Obama led in only one. Romney led in three of these, and two were are tied. Pollster, which has a very transparent method of aggregation, combines all recent polls and has Romney up 47.4 to 47.2. RealClearPolitics, which aggregates polls with a completely opaque method, has Romney up 47.6 to 46.7.

If you are a poll junkie and you need your latest fix, I suggest following the latest polls in Florida, Virginia and Ohio. If you are still obsessing over national polls, I suggest you brush up on the Constitution. Just in case, here's a link. It's free.

g under p

Around this area where I live and voted I call it Romneyville....I have to leave this area to find any Obama signs. They were many at the library where I voted yesterday with many volunteers with various inventive signs to attract voters. I should have taken some pictures while I waited.

I said long ago that it appeared to me that despite what the national polls are saying that it's a given Obama will be back in office and him and his administration knows it. It's the 8 year cycle thing which is the same that happened with Bush II.

We shall see this election needs to be over yesterday.

Peace

Jeanwah

brianlux wrote:

National polls are meaningless at this stage in the election

Correction: National polls are meaningless at every stage prior to the election.

brianlux

Jeanwah wrote:

brianlux wrote:

National polls are meaningless at this stage in the election

Correction: National polls are meaningless at every stage prior to the election.

I find both are true. I pay little heed to them at any time. Or as the article put it: "Why they all insist on continuing to waste precious ink on national polls, then, is completely mystifying." They belong in the same category as political TV ads.

JimmyV

Only polls that matter will be taken next Tuesday with a sample size of all actual voters.

Zoso

JimmyV wrote:

Only polls that matter will be taken next Tuesday with a sample size of all actual voters.

this.

Go Beavers

Zoso wrote:

JimmyV wrote:

Only polls that matter will be taken next Tuesday with a sample size of all actual voters.

this.

I'd put good money down that Monday's poll results will reflect Tuesday's results with the reputable surveys of likely voters. Rassmussen and Fox news polls will be biased in favor of Romney.

JimmyV

Go Beavers wrote:

Zoso wrote:

JimmyV wrote:

Only polls that matter will be taken next Tuesday with a sample size of all actual voters.

this.

I'd put good money down that Monday's poll results will reflect Tuesday's results with the reputable surveys of likely voters. Rassmussen and Fox news polls will be biased in favor of Romney.

Maybe. By late Tuesday/early Wednesday we'll finally know for sure.

Godfather.

I always thought these poll's were just an idea where the popular vote could be...and bragging rights if they swing in your favor but never thought they'd determin a winner or looser.

Godfather.

RFTC

Go Beavers wrote:

Zoso wrote:

JimmyV wrote:

Only polls that matter will be taken next Tuesday with a sample size of all actual voters.

this.

I'd put good money down that Monday's poll results will reflect Tuesday's results with the reputable surveys of likely voters. Rassmussen and Fox news polls will be biased in favor of Romney.

put good $ down on obama his intrade #'s are 64% and trending upward.

brianlux

RFTC wrote:

Go Beavers wrote:

Zoso wrote:

this.

I'd put good money down that Monday's poll results will reflect Tuesday's results with the reputable surveys of likely voters. Rassmussen and Fox news polls will be biased in favor of Romney.

put good $ down on obama his intrade #'s are 64% and trending upward.

Ar we allowed to gamble on this site?

JimmyV

I liked Nate Silver answering his critics by challenging Joe Scarborough this morning. If Romney wins, Silver will donate $1000 to Red Cross. If Obama wins then the donation comes from Scarborough. Not sure if Mornin' Joe accepted or not.

dancepartner

Brian, this is exacally the kind of stuff you should contribute at Dancing Partners dammit!

brianlux

dancepartner wrote:

Brian, this is exacally the kind of stuff you should contribute at Dancing Partners dammit!

Do post the link there- it's a good one!

On the mend...

B

Cliffy6745

22 swing state polls were published yesterday. Obama led in 19 of them, 2 were a tie and Romney led one Florida poll.

pandora

Just me but I think the election should be postponed a month or so.
So many struggling battling ...
they may not be able to go vote, that seems pretty unfair.

It's so close too it could mean our President will lose.

Dirtie_Frank

JimmyV wrote:

I liked Nate Silver answering his critics by challenging Joe Scarborough this morning. If Romney wins, Silver will donate $1000 to Red Cross. If Obama wins then the donation comes from Scarborough. Not sure if Mornin' Joe accepted or not.

How about they both contibute no matter who wins the presidency? Then the people affected will win too.

I wish I could donate $1000, but my best will be going through clothes I do not wear and bringing them up to NJ next weekend and giving them to a shelter or whoever I can find in the mean time.

comebackgirl

Dirtie_Frank wrote:

JimmyV wrote:

I liked Nate Silver answering his critics by challenging Joe Scarborough this morning. If Romney wins, Silver will donate $1000 to Red Cross. If Obama wins then the donation comes from Scarborough. Not sure if Mornin' Joe accepted or not.

How about they both contibute no matter who wins the presidency? Then the people affected will win too.

I wish I could donate $1000, but my best will be going through clothes I do not wear and bringing them up to NJ next weekend and giving them to a shelter or whoever I can find in the mean time.

Good idea :thumbup:


I'm pulling together clothes, shoes, non-perishables and pet supplies. Every little bit helps.