Surge in support for Romney!!!!

Prince Of Dorkness

BamaPJFan wrote:

At this point, I feel like Romney probably wins Ohio. Most polls have Romney within one point in Ohio and this usually spells trouble for an incumbent because the undecided voters almost always break in favor of the challenger. It's very cliche' to say what I've just said, but it's true.

New voter registration numbers favoring republicans, as well as data on early voting so far in Ohio are very similar to the numbers from the 2004 presidential election. Of course, Bush won Ohio in 2004.

Uh... Actually, Polls have him on average up 3, FiveThirtyEight has him at a 70% chance of winning Ohio and polls have shown that 1 in 5 people have already voted early, 59% were Democrats.

I'm not calling anything yet. This campaign has belonged to the media from day 1... they have had a blast pumping up the drama, bringing in "specialists" and "analysts" and random Tweets to dial up the drama. While... in one way that's a good thing (people are actually engaged and we might have a higher voter turn-out than usual) but in another way... it's been annoying to watch every tiny non-story get cast as a "game changer."

Just like the non-story about Barack Obama in a five year-old video speaking to people of New Orleans sounding "too black" and Paul Ryan posing in shorts and a backwards baseball cap. Nobody cares about those things but the media has been on the constant search for the new "devastating new development" which has turned this into less of a political campaign and more of a reality show.

lukin2006

The sad part of this election is to think it is even close...I mean for 2 consecutive elections the Republican nominee has been less than stellar. So more or less that means that many people are just going to pinch their nose, hold their breath and vote the incumbent...the democrats should really be thankful that the GOP hasn't found a likeable candidate or this wouldn't even be a close election.

BamaPJFan

Prince Of Dorkness wrote:

BamaPJFan wrote:

At this point, I feel like Romney probably wins Ohio. Most polls have Romney within one point in Ohio and this usually spells trouble for an incumbent because the undecided voters almost always break in favor of the challenger. It's very cliche' to say what I've just said, but it's true.

New voter registration numbers favoring republicans, as well as data on early voting so far in Ohio are very similar to the numbers from the 2004 presidential election. Of course, Bush won Ohio in 2004.

Uh... Actually, Polls have him on average up 3, FiveThirtyEight has him at a 70% chance of winning Ohio and polls have shown that 1 in 5 people have already voted early, 59% were Democrats.

I'm not calling anything yet. This campaign has belonged to the media from day 1... they have had a blast pumping up the drama, bringing in "specialists" and "analysts" and random Tweets to dial up the drama. While... in one way that's a good thing (people are actually engaged and we might have a higher voter turn-out than usual) but in another way... it's been annoying to watch every tiny non-story get cast as a "game changer."

Just like the non-story about Barack Obama in a five year-old video speaking to people of New Orleans sounding "too black" and Paul Ryan posing in shorts and a backwards baseball cap. Nobody cares about those things but the media has been on the constant search for the new "devastating new development" which has turned this into less of a political campaign and more of a reality show.

With poll numbers this close, whether the poll has Romney up by a bit or Obama up by a bit, it tends to say that the undecided voters and whichever base shows up the strongest will decide the election. All indications show that republican voter enthusiasm is much stronger this year than in 2008 and democratic voter enthusiasm isn't as strong as in 2008. The 2010 midterm elections were likely a good preview for what we'll see this November. Most of the polls have been using sampling criteria that closely mirrors the 2008 election which would be a mistake. I think that we're already assured of a much closer election than 2008. Romney will win all of the states that McCain carried, plus I think Romney is a lock to win Florida, NC, Virginia, and Indiana. I'm also predicting that as of right now, Romney will win New Hampshire.

BamaPJFan

lukin2006 wrote:

The sad part of this election is to think it is even close...I mean for 2 consecutive elections the Republican nominee has been less than stellar. So more or less that means that many people are just going to pinch their nose, hold their breath and vote the incumbent...the democrats should really be thankful that the GOP hasn't found a likeable candidate or this wouldn't even be a close election.

I think your last sentence is possibly very true. However, I do think that most of the undecided voters who are 'pinching their noses' will vote for the challenger with the hope that things can get shaken up and the economy will rebound under new leadership.

mary justice

AERIAL.....you severlely misquoted me....in the other thread I stated that " the majority of tea partiers in Ohio are card carrying members of the KKK "..... not ALL OHIOANS!!!. Don't make the conversation into statements that weren't said! Ive witnessed first hand what goes on at these tea party events to judge for myself. You can paint the picture as rosy as you want....... but from what I saw was nothing short of a public roll call for the clan. It is what it is..... please speak for yourself.....don't bring my name into your agenda falsely.

Prince Of Dorkness

BamaPJFan wrote:

All indications show that republican voter enthusiasm is much stronger this year than in 2008 and democratic voter enthusiasm isn't as strong as in 2008.

All indications?

Because last week president Obama announced that he had just received donations from over 4 MILLION individual voters. That's a record for any presidential campaign...ever.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/1 ... 64284.html

That would indicate to ME, anyway, that voters are much more committed than before. Yeah, he doesn't have Will.I.Am writing annoying songs for him this time. But I think it's pretty off-base to say that there is no enthusiasm out there.

aerial

mary justice wrote:

AERIAL.....you severlely misquoted me....in the other thread I stated that " the majority of tea partiers in Ohio are card carrying members of the KKK "..... not ALL OHIOANS!!!. Don't make the conversation into statements that weren't said! Ive witnessed first hand what goes on at these tea party events to judge for myself. You can paint the picture as rosy as you want....... but from what I saw was nothing short of a public roll call for the clan. It is what it is..... please speak for yourself.....don't bring my name into your agenda falsely.

Sorry I misunderstood you. Do people really carry cards that state they are in the KKK?

Prince Of Dorkness

aerial wrote:

Sorry I misunderstood you. Do people really carry cards that state they are in the KKK?

comebackgirl

Prince Of Dorkness wrote:

aerial wrote:

Sorry I misunderstood you. Do people really carry cards that state they are in the KKK?

I hereby proclaim you King of the Gifs

BamaPJFan

Prince Of Dorkness wrote:

BamaPJFan wrote:

All indications show that republican voter enthusiasm is much stronger this year than in 2008 and democratic voter enthusiasm isn't as strong as in 2008.

All indications?

Because last week president Obama announced that he had just received donations from over 4 MILLION individual voters. That's a record for any presidential campaign...ever.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/1 ... 64284.html

That would indicate to ME, anyway, that voters are much more committed than before. Yeah, he doesn't have Will.I.Am writing annoying songs for him this time. But I think it's pretty off-base to say that there is no enthusiasm out there.

The following is a link that shows an NBC pundit talking about voter enthusiasm in 2012.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/0 ... 46586.html

All of the independent polling that has taken place this year shows that republican voter enthusiasm is greater than democrat voter enthusiasm. There is an abundant amount of data supporting that statistic. Keep in mind, that doesn't mean that the republican voter turnout is going to be higher than the democrat voter turnout. What it does mean, is that the gap will be much smaller than what we saw in 2008 and this will favor republicans who are running for office this time around. Democrat voter turnout was also higher in 2000 and in 2004 when Bush won, so that's not uncommon. There are more registered democrats in the country than republicans. However, in some states, such as my home state, we don't register under political party labels.

Also, worth noting, is the sharp swing in female support toward Romney. The latest polling has both candidates tied at 47% with women. Bush won support from women in both of his elections. Obama won over women in 2008.

I won't be shocked to see Romney win. I've always been an independent voter. My big issues are the economny, foreign policy, and national security/military. I'm a fiscal conservative, while I would consider myself to be socially moderate. I'm a member of the so-called middle-income bracket. I'm very concerned about our country's future if we continue on the same path that we've been on for the last six or seven years. Bush started it and Obama has unfortunately taken us to even greater depths. From my standpoint, it's time for a change in administration. I know most of my fellow PJ message board members are social liberals who vote for socially liberal politicians, but I'm much more concerned with my bank account, my 1040 tax form, and just trying to survive financially.

Prince Of Dorkness

OK. So one poll conducted on NBC's website about "voter enthusiasm" asking "are you interested"? is "all indications?" That's like saying that the debate was a "draw" because of the snap poll on the CNN website.

Mitt Romney was never able to break 25% of his own party's vote in the primaries. I don't see that as being very "enthusiastic" about voting for him.

I still roll my eyes at people who think it's a good idea to turn over the country to a man who's shown that he values money over people, thinks that the rules aren't really applied to him and says totally contradictory things like "Government can't create jobs... as president I will create 12 million jobs.." The one term he served as governor, employment in his state went down and he had a 32% approval rating.

I'm not going to play the obnoxious plutocrat and say that because I've got a relatively successful small business that I know more about global economics than you, but I'll tell you that lowering my taxes or giving me all the shelters in the world won't make me hire any more people. I have a small staff of people who help me do my work... that's all I need.

I want YOU to have more income AND for you to not have to worry about escalating costs of living out-pacing your income. I want you to have money to spend. And money sitting in my bank account doesn't do you any good. Especially if it's in my foreign accounts and yes... I have two.

What I NEED is a stronger middle class with more disposable income to buy the product I make. Jobs aren't created by lowering taxes on businesses, jobs are created by consumer demand.

Giving a rich guy a big bag of money isn't going to make him suddenly decide to open up a toy factory... he's going to do that if he sees that there is a large number of people who are no longer struggling to get food on their tables and now have extra money to buy the kids toys.

hedonist

BamaPJFan wrote:

My big issues are the economny, foreign policy, and national security/military. I'm a fiscal conservative, while I would consider myself to be socially moderate. I'm a member of the so-called middle-income bracket. I'm very concerned about our country's future if we continue on the same path that we've been on for the last six or seven years. Bush started it and Obama has unfortunately taken us to even greater depths. From my standpoint, it's time for a change in administration. I know most of my fellow PJ message board members are social liberals who vote for socially liberal politicians, but I'm much more concerned with my bank account, my 1040 tax form, and just trying to survive financially.

Well-said, sir.

keeponrockin

BamaPJFan wrote:

I won't be shocked to see Romney win. I've always been an independent voter. My big issues are the economny, foreign policy, and national security/military. I'm a fiscal conservative, while I would consider myself to be socially moderate. I'm a member of the so-called middle-income bracket. I'm very concerned about our country's future if we continue on the same path that we've been on for the last six or seven years. Bush started it and Obama has unfortunately taken us to even greater depths. From my standpoint, it's time for a change in administration. I know most of my fellow PJ message board members are social liberals who vote for socially liberal politicians, but I'm much more concerned with my bank account, my 1040 tax form, and just trying to survive financially.

Just curious, what do you think Romney would do differently than Obama and Bush?

polaris_x

hedonist wrote:

BamaPJFan wrote:

My big issues are the economny, foreign policy, and national security/military. I'm a fiscal conservative, while I would consider myself to be socially moderate. I'm a member of the so-called middle-income bracket. I'm very concerned about our country's future if we continue on the same path that we've been on for the last six or seven years. Bush started it and Obama has unfortunately taken us to even greater depths. From my standpoint, it's time for a change in administration. I know most of my fellow PJ message board members are social liberals who vote for socially liberal politicians, but I'm much more concerned with my bank account, my 1040 tax form, and just trying to survive financially.

Well-said, sir.

i think the only thing the GOP and Romney have going for them is that they aren't the incumbent in this election. The reality is that economy, in whatever perspective one chooses to evaluate it, is the result of policies that are consistent on both sides of the floor. Romney is not going to be able to fix it, and in all likelihood will further exacerbate the situation however, he is the only option if you want to fail Obama and his administration. His plan doesn't need to be coherent nor does it need to make any sense whatsoever because ultimately, he isn't the incumbent in this false economy.

The question is whether or not his strategists have controlled the gaffes Romney is prone to.

BamaPJFan

keeponrockin wrote:

BamaPJFan wrote:

I won't be shocked to see Romney win. I've always been an independent voter. My big issues are the economny, foreign policy, and national security/military. I'm a fiscal conservative, while I would consider myself to be socially moderate. I'm a member of the so-called middle-income bracket. I'm very concerned about our country's future if we continue on the same path that we've been on for the last six or seven years. Bush started it and Obama has unfortunately taken us to even greater depths. From my standpoint, it's time for a change in administration. I know most of my fellow PJ message board members are social liberals who vote for socially liberal politicians, but I'm much more concerned with my bank account, my 1040 tax form, and just trying to survive financially.

Just curious, what do you think Romney would do differently than Obama and Bush?

Romney should be more of a fiscal conservative. I'd rather take my chances with Romney in office than settling for more of the same with Obama. Nothing will get better under Obama. He had four years and couldn't get it done.

If Obama were to be re-elected, the House of Reps will still be majority republican and the Senate could possibly be a republican majority. So, if that happens, then there will definitely be a continued stalemate and Obama will have to find ways around congress in order for him to put his policies in place and this would be very bad for the American people.

I know a lot of nervous small business owners - from a guy who owns a small advertising firm to a friend who's a solo, private practice pediatrician. They are very worried at what a second Obama term will do to their businesses. I've also spoken with a cancer doctor who said that ObamaCare is already hurting her employer's practice and things will only get worse for Medicare patients when the healthcare-provider reimbursement cuts go into full effect over the next two years. Fewer and fewer Medicare recipients will be able to access medical care as a result of doctors not accepting Medicare patients. This is a scary time indeed and folks who don't see it apparently have their heads in the sand.

BamaPJFan

It's much more than Chuck Todd's comments. I just posted that little snippet because it was on the Huff Post's website and many left-leaning folks trust what pundits on Huff Post and NBC have to say.

Primaries are a circus of ideas. We all know that. But, once a nominee is chosen, then the respective parties galvanize around that candidate. For example, Rick Santorum carried Alabama in the republican primary, but Romney will easily carry Alabama on November 6th.

I'll go out of a limb (albeit not a big limb) and say that most of the republican voter enthusiasm is being driven by voting Obama out of office as opposed to merely voting for Romney. That's probably the best way to articulate how voter sentiment has trended as of late.

Prince Of Dorkness wrote:

OK. So one poll conducted on NBC's website about "voter enthusiasm" asking "are you interested"? is "all indications?" That's like saying that the debate was a "draw" because of the snap poll on the CNN website.

Mitt Romney was never able to break 25% of his own party's vote in the primaries. I don't see that as being very "enthusiastic" about voting for him.

Prince Of Dorkness

BamaPJFan wrote:

I'll go out of a limb (albeit not a big limb) and say that most of the republican voter entusiasm is being driven by voting Obama out of office as opposed to merely voting for Romney. That's probably the best way to articulate how voter sentiment has trended as of late.

Ok... so considering that the president has about a 50% approval rating and that George W Bush had about 24% that maybe the "voter enthusiasm" last time was more about ending 8 years of spoiled rich brat running the country into the ground?

And you want to go back to that?

BamaPJFan

Prince Of Dorkness wrote:

BamaPJFan wrote:

I'll go out of a limb (albeit not a big limb) and say that most of the republican voter entusiasm is being driven by voting Obama out of office as opposed to merely voting for Romney. That's probably the best way to articulate how voter sentiment has trended as of late.

Ok... so considering that the president has about a 50% approval rating and that George W Bush had about 24% that maybe the "voter enthusiasm" last time was more about ending 8 years of spoiled rich brat running the country into the ground?

And you want to go back to that?

The last four years have been worse than the previous four. Joe Biden even said less than a month ago that the middle-class has been hammered over the last four years.

Take a look around you. We're at the threshold of hell. It ain't gettin' any better with four more years of this current administration.

whygohome

BamaPJFan wrote:

I know a lot of nervous small business owners - from a guy who owns a small advertising firm to a friend who's a solo, private practice pediatrician. They are very worried at what a second Obama term will do to their businesses. I've also spoken with a cancer doctor who said that ObamaCare is already hurting her employer's practice and things will only get worse for Medicare patients when the healthcare-provider reimbursement cuts go into full effect over the next two years. Fewer and fewer Medicare recipients will be able to access medical care as a result of doctors not accepting Medicare patients. This is a scary time indeed and folks who don't see it apparently have their heads in the sand.

The small business owners should thank Wall St., the subprime mortgage crisis, and bankers for the uncertainty in the economy. Those who almost destroyed this economy are still doing as well as ever. The problem? 93% of the post-recession earnings/revenue has gone to the top 1% (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/0 ... 21008.html). Banks and large corporations have trillions of dollars on the sidelines, the companies that got the bulk of TARP funds are not hiring; instead, they are making record profits and laying people off. They are as anti-American as you can get and they don't have an ounce of patriotism in their blood.

The right wing propaganda machine will try to convince people that it is all the fault of big-bad government and a socialist, anti american, anti business President. Let's think about that: the President of the U.S. is anti-business. It is quite silly; but, the idiots who listen to Limbaugh or O'Reilly or Hannity buy into it b/c it reinforces their own narrow-minded, uninformed ideologies and prejudices.

As for the cancer doctor you know, I would love to speak with him/her directly. I just saw a friend of mine's father at a wedding in Philly. He is a soon to be retired general physician and says the opposite of what your cancer doctor says.
Doctors not accepting Medicare is part of the problem. Doctors deserve big paychecks, but their job is care, not testing.

BamaPJFan

whygohome wrote:

BamaPJFan wrote:

I know a lot of nervous small business owners - from a guy who owns a small advertising firm to a friend who's a solo, private practice pediatrician. They are very worried at what a second Obama term will do to their businesses. I've also spoken with a cancer doctor who said that ObamaCare is already hurting her employer's practice and things will only get worse for Medicare patients when the healthcare-provider reimbursement cuts go into full effect over the next two years. Fewer and fewer Medicare recipients will be able to access medical care as a result of doctors not accepting Medicare patients. This is a scary time indeed and folks who don't see it apparently have their heads in the sand.

The small business owners should thank Wall St., the subprime mortgage crisis, and bankers for the uncertainty in the economy. Those who almost destroyed this economy are still doing as well as ever. The problem? 93% of the post-recession earnings/revenue has gone to the top 1% (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/0 ... 21008.html). Banks and large corporations have trillions of dollars on the sidelines, the companies that got the bulk of TARP funds are not hiring; instead, they are making record profits and laying people off. They are as anti-American as you can get and they don't have an ounce of patriotism in their blood.

The right wing propaganda machine will try to convince people that it is all the fault of big-bad government and a socialist, anti american, anti business President. Let's think about that: the President of the U.S. is anti-business. It is quite silly; but, the idiots who listen to Limbaugh or O'Reilly or Hannity buy into it b/c it reinforces their own narrow-minded, uninformed ideologies and prejudices.

As for the cancer doctor you know, I would love to speak with him/her directly. I just saw a friend of mine's father at a wedding in Philly. He is a soon to be retired general physician and says the opposite of what your cancer doctor says.
Doctors not accepting Medicare is part of the problem. Doctors deserve big paychecks, but their job is care, not testing.

Doctors who run their own small shops will be the ones most adversely affected by the cuts in Medicare reimbursements because they will struggle to pay their overhead. Big hospitals will still be affected, but they will not have the hard hits that solo practitioners/small practice phyisicans will. Doctors who are on the payroll of large hospitals and large clinics will be insulated from the Medicare cuts to a much larger degee because they aren't as dependent on Medicare. A poll was just released two weeks ago, prior to the second debate, that showed that well over 50% of American phyisicians support Romney. The medical profession is really at a big crossroads right now with this new healthcare legislation.

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/01/surve ... over-obama