Israelis shrug at Netanyahu's urgent warnings on Iran
gimmesometruth27
St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 23,303
Bibi is trying to drum up fear in his own country. the people of israel are handling this much better than people of america would. we are fearful here. we believe that we are constantly under threat. bibi is telling his country to be scared and that there is an imminent threat to them. they are not having it. bibi is sabre rattling with iran and he is trying to draw the US into another war in the region. or he is wanting US to do his fighting for him.
to answer the post in the other thread about obama not talking to foreign leaders, i have this to say.
WHY WOULD HE? he is trying to win an election. if he talks to foreign leaders he might get sucked into some crappy situation where we would have to commit troops somewhere, bomb someone, or worse, launch an all out war. why would anyone in their right mind who is on the campaign trail risk pulling a romney and insulting those allies or inflaming tensions with other countries overseas?
it is easy for romney and right wingers to criticize obama because they are not in his situation. they are not the ones making real decisions. it is easy to throw hyperbole stones when you are not the one who has to deal with the fallout...
Israelis shrug at Netanyahu's urgent warnings on Iran
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has relentlessly warned that Iran poses an imminent nuclear threat, but most Israelis are sanguine, believing it won't happen or that Israel can handle it.
http://news.yahoo.com/israelis-shrug-ne ... 29186.html
Even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presses the US for “red lines” on Iran’s nuclear development and Iran ramps up its rhetoric, Israelis don’t seem to be expecting a war with Iran anytime soon – and are not frantically preparing for one.
Yes, Iran is a dangerous regime, most say. But even as some get new gas masks and repair their bomb shelters, more than half say they think Mr. Netanyahu's statements about launching an Israeli strike on Iran are a bluff intended to pressure the US to do the job instead.
And even if Netanyahu were serious about going it alone, Israelis express a high degree of confidence in Israel’s ability to defend itself.
“We have been following the Iran issue for quite a long time and … [Israelis] actually seem to be pretty relaxed about it and I suppose that, following their answers, this is because they don’t really think it’s going to happen,” says public opinion expert Tamar Hermann, who co-edits a monthly poll known as the Peace Index. “They see it as a chess game by which Netanyahu is trying to achieve certain advantages in the international arena.”
There are other theories about why Israelis seem relatively calm about the Iran threat: They’ve long since accepted that they live in a dangerous neighborhood; they have confidence in the state’s ability to defend itself and protect its civilians; they don’t think Iran will strike anyway; and, for the more religious, they are looking to the same God that delivered their people from enemies who sought their destruction in the past, from Goliath to Haman.
“First of all, I trust God. Secondly, we have very clever people, very good intelligence,” and a strong military, says Moshe Guy, a Tel Aviv resident visiting the Western Wall in Jerusalem’s Old City. “I’m not afraid – I’m much more afraid about the conflict between Jews in Israel – between religious and non-religious.… I see that Judaism is moving toward [being] fanatic, and fanatic is very bad.”
Indeed, other concerns seem to be more top of mind for Israelis, including the high cost of living, rising social tensions, and even a possible earthquake.
US SUPPORT STILL TRUMPS ALL
Earlier this year, a survey conducted by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University found that only 18 percent of Israelis believed that Iran would attack Israel with nuclear weapons. Even if Iran were to launch a nuclear attack, almost 2 in 3 Israelis believe that Israel can handle such an strike, according to the survey, which will be published in December.
But Israelis were more confident in their country's ability to deal with all but one of the other threats posed by the survey – including war with Arab countries, sustained terrorism, and a chemical or biological weapons attack, according to INSS data shared with the Monitor.
The only thing Israelis are more worried about in terms of national security is a drop in US support of Israel.
“All the studies we’ve done over the past 25 years show that the Israeli public … puts great, great, great emphasis between Israel and US and views strong bonds … as a major factor in Israel’s national security,” says Yehuda Ben Meir, co-director of INSS’s National Security and Public Opinion Project. “Since it’s been made very clear that the US is more than strongly opposed to a unilateral Israeli independent attack at this time … [Israelis] don’t want it.”
To be sure, a substantial cohort – as high as 40 percent, according to some polls – still supports an Israeli strike. But a strong majority – 61 percent, according to the Peace Index – only want a joint US-Israel strike.
That said, Israelis don’t necessarily trust the US. Some 70 percent said they did not have full confidence in US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s promise this summer that the US will prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, according to the July edition of Professor Hermann’s Peace Index.
“We cannot trust America,” says Mr. Guy of Tel Aviv, criticizing Netanyahu for pressuring the US to support an Israeli strike or launch its own. “Why speak about it, [why] make so much noise? They will not do it. We must do it.”
IS AN EARTHQUAKE MORE LIKELY THAN A NUCLEAR ATTACK?
This weekend, the deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that an Israeli strike would “provide a historic opportunity for the Islamic Revolution to wipe [Israel] off the face of the earth,” adding that an infantry battalion would be able to “break Israel’s back” within a day.
It’s sound bites like that which always spur a flurry of calls and website traffic for Dani Avram, the owner of an Israeli bomb shelter company called Ani Mugan (“I am protected”).
“Every time there’s the right news … you see a big increase of people that want to fix their home shelters,” says Mr. Avram, who says that usually such calls drop off after a few days. “But now, it’s many more people and a longer period of time.”
Traffic to his company website has increased at least sixfold, he estimates, and calls have risen from a few dozen a day to a few hundred. Even on weekends and recent holidays, traffic has been similar to a normal business day, he says.
Part of it may be an improved awareness among citizens about how to brace for attack, thanks in part to a more organized campaign by the government.
“It’s not the same as [before the 1991] Gulf War – now we feel more secure because now we feel better prepared,” says Dan, a Modiin resident visiting Jerusalem’s Old City who declined to give his last name.
DISTRIBUTING GAS MASKS
But his wife, Ilanit, says she is worried – though she admits she has yet to get a gas mask for their third child, an infant.
The Home Front Command, set up in the wake of the Gulf War, began a nationwide campaign in 2010 to distribute gas masks to protect citizens in the event of biological or chemical warfare. Since then, they have distributed more than 4 million of the so-called “protection kits,” but only about half of Israelis currently have one, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
The country has also helped prepare citizens by organizing nationwide civil defense drills every spring or early summer since the 2006 Lebanon war, when Hezbollah sent a flood of rockets over Israel’s northern border. But this year’s drill, which is set to include NATO and the United Nations, will be held in October and doesn’t have anything to do with missiles or other possible retaliatory attacks from Iran.
Normally, the drills include the sounding of a siren, the distribution of messages via SMS, and requests for civilians to go to a designated secure place as they would in an emergency. Local governments are also involved in emergency response simulations.
Instead, the focus this year will be preparing for an earthquake. The last destructive earthquake in Israel occurred in 1927, and with major quakes occurring every 80-90 years on average, some say the country is due for another.
“I know it’s much more sexy to talk about Iran, but an earthquake is much more likely statistically,” says Nissan Zehevi, spokesman for the Home Front Defense Minister. But, he adds, “We’re ready for any scenario.”
In the meantime, says Hermann, Israelis don’t seem to be batting an eye – noting among other things the recent uptick in home sales lately.
“Normally people do not invest in real estate when they think that their new homes are going to be destroyed by missiles from Iran,” she says.
to answer the post in the other thread about obama not talking to foreign leaders, i have this to say.
WHY WOULD HE? he is trying to win an election. if he talks to foreign leaders he might get sucked into some crappy situation where we would have to commit troops somewhere, bomb someone, or worse, launch an all out war. why would anyone in their right mind who is on the campaign trail risk pulling a romney and insulting those allies or inflaming tensions with other countries overseas?
it is easy for romney and right wingers to criticize obama because they are not in his situation. they are not the ones making real decisions. it is easy to throw hyperbole stones when you are not the one who has to deal with the fallout...
Israelis shrug at Netanyahu's urgent warnings on Iran
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has relentlessly warned that Iran poses an imminent nuclear threat, but most Israelis are sanguine, believing it won't happen or that Israel can handle it.
http://news.yahoo.com/israelis-shrug-ne ... 29186.html
Even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presses the US for “red lines” on Iran’s nuclear development and Iran ramps up its rhetoric, Israelis don’t seem to be expecting a war with Iran anytime soon – and are not frantically preparing for one.
Yes, Iran is a dangerous regime, most say. But even as some get new gas masks and repair their bomb shelters, more than half say they think Mr. Netanyahu's statements about launching an Israeli strike on Iran are a bluff intended to pressure the US to do the job instead.
And even if Netanyahu were serious about going it alone, Israelis express a high degree of confidence in Israel’s ability to defend itself.
“We have been following the Iran issue for quite a long time and … [Israelis] actually seem to be pretty relaxed about it and I suppose that, following their answers, this is because they don’t really think it’s going to happen,” says public opinion expert Tamar Hermann, who co-edits a monthly poll known as the Peace Index. “They see it as a chess game by which Netanyahu is trying to achieve certain advantages in the international arena.”
There are other theories about why Israelis seem relatively calm about the Iran threat: They’ve long since accepted that they live in a dangerous neighborhood; they have confidence in the state’s ability to defend itself and protect its civilians; they don’t think Iran will strike anyway; and, for the more religious, they are looking to the same God that delivered their people from enemies who sought their destruction in the past, from Goliath to Haman.
“First of all, I trust God. Secondly, we have very clever people, very good intelligence,” and a strong military, says Moshe Guy, a Tel Aviv resident visiting the Western Wall in Jerusalem’s Old City. “I’m not afraid – I’m much more afraid about the conflict between Jews in Israel – between religious and non-religious.… I see that Judaism is moving toward [being] fanatic, and fanatic is very bad.”
Indeed, other concerns seem to be more top of mind for Israelis, including the high cost of living, rising social tensions, and even a possible earthquake.
US SUPPORT STILL TRUMPS ALL
Earlier this year, a survey conducted by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University found that only 18 percent of Israelis believed that Iran would attack Israel with nuclear weapons. Even if Iran were to launch a nuclear attack, almost 2 in 3 Israelis believe that Israel can handle such an strike, according to the survey, which will be published in December.
But Israelis were more confident in their country's ability to deal with all but one of the other threats posed by the survey – including war with Arab countries, sustained terrorism, and a chemical or biological weapons attack, according to INSS data shared with the Monitor.
The only thing Israelis are more worried about in terms of national security is a drop in US support of Israel.
“All the studies we’ve done over the past 25 years show that the Israeli public … puts great, great, great emphasis between Israel and US and views strong bonds … as a major factor in Israel’s national security,” says Yehuda Ben Meir, co-director of INSS’s National Security and Public Opinion Project. “Since it’s been made very clear that the US is more than strongly opposed to a unilateral Israeli independent attack at this time … [Israelis] don’t want it.”
To be sure, a substantial cohort – as high as 40 percent, according to some polls – still supports an Israeli strike. But a strong majority – 61 percent, according to the Peace Index – only want a joint US-Israel strike.
That said, Israelis don’t necessarily trust the US. Some 70 percent said they did not have full confidence in US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s promise this summer that the US will prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, according to the July edition of Professor Hermann’s Peace Index.
“We cannot trust America,” says Mr. Guy of Tel Aviv, criticizing Netanyahu for pressuring the US to support an Israeli strike or launch its own. “Why speak about it, [why] make so much noise? They will not do it. We must do it.”
IS AN EARTHQUAKE MORE LIKELY THAN A NUCLEAR ATTACK?
This weekend, the deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that an Israeli strike would “provide a historic opportunity for the Islamic Revolution to wipe [Israel] off the face of the earth,” adding that an infantry battalion would be able to “break Israel’s back” within a day.
It’s sound bites like that which always spur a flurry of calls and website traffic for Dani Avram, the owner of an Israeli bomb shelter company called Ani Mugan (“I am protected”).
“Every time there’s the right news … you see a big increase of people that want to fix their home shelters,” says Mr. Avram, who says that usually such calls drop off after a few days. “But now, it’s many more people and a longer period of time.”
Traffic to his company website has increased at least sixfold, he estimates, and calls have risen from a few dozen a day to a few hundred. Even on weekends and recent holidays, traffic has been similar to a normal business day, he says.
Part of it may be an improved awareness among citizens about how to brace for attack, thanks in part to a more organized campaign by the government.
“It’s not the same as [before the 1991] Gulf War – now we feel more secure because now we feel better prepared,” says Dan, a Modiin resident visiting Jerusalem’s Old City who declined to give his last name.
DISTRIBUTING GAS MASKS
But his wife, Ilanit, says she is worried – though she admits she has yet to get a gas mask for their third child, an infant.
The Home Front Command, set up in the wake of the Gulf War, began a nationwide campaign in 2010 to distribute gas masks to protect citizens in the event of biological or chemical warfare. Since then, they have distributed more than 4 million of the so-called “protection kits,” but only about half of Israelis currently have one, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
The country has also helped prepare citizens by organizing nationwide civil defense drills every spring or early summer since the 2006 Lebanon war, when Hezbollah sent a flood of rockets over Israel’s northern border. But this year’s drill, which is set to include NATO and the United Nations, will be held in October and doesn’t have anything to do with missiles or other possible retaliatory attacks from Iran.
Normally, the drills include the sounding of a siren, the distribution of messages via SMS, and requests for civilians to go to a designated secure place as they would in an emergency. Local governments are also involved in emergency response simulations.
Instead, the focus this year will be preparing for an earthquake. The last destructive earthquake in Israel occurred in 1927, and with major quakes occurring every 80-90 years on average, some say the country is due for another.
“I know it’s much more sexy to talk about Iran, but an earthquake is much more likely statistically,” says Nissan Zehevi, spokesman for the Home Front Defense Minister. But, he adds, “We’re ready for any scenario.”
In the meantime, says Hermann, Israelis don’t seem to be batting an eye – noting among other things the recent uptick in home sales lately.
“Normally people do not invest in real estate when they think that their new homes are going to be destroyed by missiles from Iran,” she says.
"You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry." - Lincoln
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
Post edited by Unknown User on
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Comments
"Yes, Iran is a dangerous regime, most say. But even as some get new gas masks and repair their bomb shelters, more than half say they think Mr. Netanyahu's statements about launching an Israeli strike on Iran are a bluff intended to pressure the US to do the job instead."
This reminds me of the time when I got shoved in a locker freshman year. I got an older dude in the neighborhood to take care of the kid. I should have either taken it as hazing, or taken care of it on my own.
Everybody wants to U.S. to do their dirty work....AND, we've done it. Where has that gotten us?
Hmmm. This sounds familiar: “I’m not afraid – I’m much more afraid about the conflict between Jews in Israel – between religious and non-religious.… I see that Judaism is moving toward [being] fanatic, and fanatic is very bad.”
unfortunately it seems like we won't get there in my lifetime.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
Not with Bibi around.
Agreed. Iran should give a piece of land the the Palestinians, and the world would be a better place.
That's an opinion. Who are the most? I love this stuff. Israel is the enemy. :roll:
Sorry, let me edit: "If this is true, then this is very disturbing." I was just citing a quote.
If you don't like the quote go to the source.
And, nobody said that Israel is the enemy. That is a gross overstatement. Many people feel that they are not holding up their end of the bargain. Very simple.
how about the israeli govt give the palestinians the land that it theres by right... by international law and real history? how about the israeli govt stop with the land creeping, take responsibility for past wrongs(palestinians can do this too) and make the palestinians welcome in their own country??
take a good look
this could be the day
hold my hand
lie beside me
i just need to say
Israel is our ally and we are back to back world war champs.
Do the math
i think iran knows washington isnt foolish enough to get drawn in by netanyahus sabre rattling.
take a good look
this could be the day
hold my hand
lie beside me
i just need to say
do the history...
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
i think hes (deludedly)speaking of the US being back to back world war champs.
take a good look
this could be the day
hold my hand
lie beside me
i just need to say
And we might be WW I and II champs, but we are unimpressive dawdlers of 2 much more recent wars.
This ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
bibi is talking and selling a war to an israeli public who does not want it. he is trying to goad US into fighting with or for him. this is the exact same fucking thing that bush and the "coalition of the willing" did in the lead up to the iraq war.
have we learned nothing?
it is all being set up the same way. "a madman in the desert seeking weapons of mass destruction. he is a threat to everyone in the world. he tried to buy yellow cake uranium in niger. he tried to kill my dad. we have to take him out because sanctions are not working. we are going to be greeted as liberators!!"
anyone remember that?
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
"Becoming a Bruce fan is like hitting puberty as a musical fan. It's inevitable." - dcfaithful
where the fuck is the press on this? again it is asleep at the switch. what sells more papers and generates more page clicks than the prospect of a new war??
the press is failing to inform your average citizen what is about to happen in their name, and how our military may be sucked into yet another conflict for no reason.
sometimes i think we do a better job of sharing information and news on this forum than most media outlets.
we can not let everyone forget what happened in 2003 and we can not allow it to happen again.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
"Becoming a Bruce fan is like hitting puberty as a musical fan. It's inevitable." - dcfaithful
this man is a threat to world peace and middle east stability... he may bring about the collapse of his own country if he starts a unilateral war.... of course we are going to get dragged into another multifront war...
someone stop this sabre-rattling idiot!!
Netanyahu to set "clear red line" for Iran in U.N. speech
http://news.yahoo.com/netanyahu-press-i ... 26532.html
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will set out, in his speech at the United Nations on Thursday, an ultimatum for Iran to halt its disputed nuclear drive or risk coming under military attack, an Israeli official said.
Netanyahu faces the world body after U.S. President Barack Obama disappointed some Israelis, in his own address to the annual assembly, by not calling for a deadline to be imposed on Tehran - though he did say time for diplomacy "is not unlimited".
Israel sees a mortal threat in a nuclear-armed Iran and has long threatened to strike its arch-foe pre-emptively, agitating war-wary world powers as they pursue sanctions and negotiations.
Complicating Netanyahu's strategy have been his testy relations with Obama as a U.S. election looms, and the reluctance of many Israelis to trigger a conflict with Iran, which denies that it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons and has pledged wide-ranging retaliation if attacked.
"The prime minister will set a clear red line in his speech that will not contradict Obama's remarks. Obama said Iran won't have nuclear weapons. The prime minister will clarify the way in which Iran won't have nuclear arms," a senior Israeli official said en route to New York, without elaborating.
Though he has not previously detailed when Israel might be willing to go to war, Netanyahu has said Iran could have enough low-enriched uranium by early 2013 to refine to a high level of fissile purity for a first nuclear device [ID:nL5E8KG2P5].
Israel worries that this final step, if taken, could happen too quickly or quietly to be prevented.
Iran has said it has no plans to enrich uranium beyond the 20 percent purity required to run a reactor producing medical isotopes. That level, however, brings raw uranium exponentially closer to the 90 percent enrichment required for bomb fuel.
Though reputed to have the Middle East's sole nuclear arsenal, Israel would be hard-put to deliver lasting damage to Iran's remote facilities using its conventional forces, or to handle a multi-front war.
WORK TOGETHER
Netanyahu's public calls for a U.S. ultimatum have deepened acrimony with Obama, a Democrat accused by his Republican rivals of being soft on the Jewish state's security. That has stirred American accusations of Israeli meddling in the November presidential elections - something denied by Netanyahu.
"The prime minister will say that Israel and the United States can work together to achieve their common goal," said the Israeli official on condition of anonymity.
Netanyahu, who heads a broad-based, conservative coalition government, departed for New York on Wednesday saying he would take the U.N. podium for an Israel "united in the goal of preventing Iran from achieving nuclear weaponry".
But surveys show that most Israelis - apparently swayed by the open dissent of several senior national-security figures - would oppose launching unilateral strikes on Iran, given the risk of alienating Washington and of provoking clashes with Tehran's Islamist militant allies in Lebanon and Gaza.
A poll published by the liberal Haaretz newspaper on Thursday found that 50 percent of Israelis feared for the survival of their country, should there be a conflict.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in his speech to the General Assembly on Wednesday, said Iran was under threat of military action from "uncivilized Zionists," a clear reference to Israel. Earlier this week, Ahmadinejad said that Israel would eventually be "eliminated."
Haaretz also ran excerpts from a leaked Foreign Ministry report that sanctions had caused greater damage to Iran's economy than anticipated by Israel.
The findings, confirmed to Reuters by an Israeli official, could undermine any attempt by Netanyahu to argue that the military alternative must be considered imminently.
Israeli opposition leader Shaul Mofaz criticized Netanyahu for sparring with Obama and voiced confidence in U.S. resolve.
"I am convinced that the United States, the president of the United States, is determined to prevent Iran going nuclear," Mofaz told Israel's Army Radio.
Even within Netanyahu's coalition there have been misgivings about the pitch of disagreement with the United States.
Danny Ayalon, deputy to Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, described Obama's Iran remarks at the United Nations as "important, albeit measured".
Speaking on Israel Radio, Ayalon said the Netanyahu government and Obama administration were in discreet contacts and approaching agreement on setting limits for Iran.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
take a good look
this could be the day
hold my hand
lie beside me
i just need to say
im just curious as to why netanyahu feels he needs the approval and backing of the US. if iran is such a threat to his nation, why not say fuck you were going in. afterall thats what the US usually does.
take a good look
this could be the day
hold my hand
lie beside me
i just need to say
It's because the US holds them back. If you look at their brief history, any time they've "needed" (a subjective word in this case) to show strength, they've pretty much taken whatever they've wanted. The US then make them give it back. Israel follows because
A) They really don't want anything more than is theirs
C) They know the US is the one country that could take them out
The fact is, its the other countries that are effectively hiding behind the US. They know the US won't let Israel loose, so they threaten and threaten and threaten. That is why Netanyahu has said - enough!!! Get some balls Obama and set a deadline. Unfortunately, Obama goes on The View. So, we know where his balls are.
according to you, what exactly is israel's?
they were not a country until we GAVE it to them in 1948. the land they stole during the 1967 war is not their land. it is palestinian land that they took and on that land they have been building illegal settlements that have been condemned by every country in the world but the US. those settlements are against international law. but because of their cozy relationship with us, they will never be taken to task over it. the un has voted time and again to condemn israel for these illegal settlements, but every time this vote is passed it is vetoed by the US. go figure, right?
their zionist government does not want to live in peace because if they did there would not be an apartheid regime in the west bank and gaza. all this is doing is making them less likely to live in peace.
according to my article, the average israeli citizen does not want to go to war with iran. they are more concerned about earthquakes. they are not concerned about their ability to defeat iran, rather they are concerned about the fallout from their neighbors if they were to attack iran.
netanyahu does not need our permission. he can act as he pleases. he is the head of a soverign nation. israel is not a colony of the united states. we just help to arm them. they can attack if they want to, but they know that other countries would love to attack israel as retaliation. if israel attacks iran they would be destroying their own country.
the sanctions ARE working. they are having a greater effect on iran than anyone expected. they are crippling iran.
obama realizes that this sabre-rattling is what it is. it is netanyahu trying to goad US and our military into another war all because the zionists want it. let the zionists fight their own wars and leave us the hell out of it. obama is not a neocon and he is not a member of pnac, so why would he want to start ANOTHER war in the region? why are you calling for him to do so??
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
take a good look
this could be the day
hold my hand
lie beside me
i just need to say
Really? Did you just ask that? :?
I guess I am done here.
yes i did. care to answer?
take a good look
this could be the day
hold my hand
lie beside me
i just need to say
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
Iranian: 'Our money is becoming more and more worthless every day'
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012 ... y-day?lite
By Ali Arouzi, NBC News correspondent
TEHRAN – Even though threats of war with Israel are almost a daily occurrence, what’s really on people's minds in this city is the economy.
The United States, the European Union and the U.N. have imposed tough economic sanctions against Iran, blocking access to the international banking system and curbing sales of Iranian crude oil as a way to persuade Tehran to abandon its nuclear program.
As a result, Iran’s currency, the rial, is in a constant state of flux, but mostly on a downward trajectory. These days, it seems to fall in value against the dollar on an hourly basis. On Tuesday the currency hit an all-time low against the U.S. dollar, trading at 26,500 to the U.S. dollar on the open market, according to Persian-language currency tracking website Mazanex.
“Our money is becoming more and more worthless every day,” said Sarvenas Sadi, an elderly woman doing her daily shopping in Tehran earlier this week.
She picked up a handful of limes and exclaimed, “These were 100 percent cheaper last year!”
Asked whether she ever though she would see the currency devalue so much, she replied, “Never! I remember before the [1979] revolution $1 was worth 70 rial, now it’s worth 26,000! Who would have ever have thought!”
Did she think things would ever balance out and the price of goods would come down to what they were before. “Unfortunately I don’t think so. The thing with Iran is that once the price of something goes up, it never comes down again.”
So what’s the solution? “Eat less limes,” she jokingly replied.
Manufacturing hit hard
The financial situation is affecting people from all classes. Thousands of workers have been laid off and have not been paid back wages because companies have simply run out of money. Majid, a 32-year-old mechanic who used to work for a large car company was recently laid off and is owed six months’ salary.
“They are laying off people left, right and center. I doubt there will be a company left by the New Year,” he said, giving just his first name because of the sensitivity of the issue in Iran. Persian New Year will be on March 21, 2013.
The car industry, one of the biggest manufacturing sectors in Iran and a massive employer, has been affected dramatically; Iranian media have reported a 30 to 50 percent drop in car and component production in the past six months. Iran was the 13th-largest auto maker in the world in 2011, producing 1.6 million vehicles.
The Iran Khodro Company, the country’s leading vehicle manufacturer, had become the largest vehicle manufacturer in the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa. The company won the annual national prize for export activities in 2006 and 2007 with Russia, Syria, Turkey, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Egypt, Algeria and Bulgaria among their key consumers.
But higher prices, due to the soaring costs of components as a result of the sanctions, have caused a drop in demand.
For instance, France's Peugeot Citroen halted shipments of vehicle kits for assembly in Iran earlier this year, saying international sanctions barring transactions with the country's banking system made it difficult to obtain sales financing.
Majid, the mechanic, said he is looking for work elsewhere but it is proving very difficult. “There are not many jobs going and it is getting me more and more depressed.”
Oil sales to travel - down
The oil sector has been hit hard too. The Iranian Labor News Agency reported that a letter on behalf of 20,000 oil workers from across the country was sent to Labor Minister Abdolreza Sheikholeslami complaining that they had not been paid in months. The letter demanded an increase to the worker’s salaries of $120 to $285 a month, adding that at the current rate they were "way below the poverty line.”
Mohammad Reza Bahonar, a prominent Iranian member of parliament, said oil exports in June-July had dropped to "around 800,000 barrels per day," according to a report by ISNA news agency. That’s a low not seen in more than two decades, and less than half the 2.3 million barrels per day exported just a year ago.
But Minister of Petroleum Rostam Qasemi was quoted by ISNA saying that overall oil production this year "will be the same as last year."
The strangling of the economy isn’t just affecting blue-collar workers.
Middle-class Iranians had become accustomed to foreign travel – to Dubai, a playground for Iranians only an hour and half away, Turkey, one of only a few countries that does not require visa’s for Iranians, and Thailand. But the cost of travel to any of these destinations is prohibitive to many.
Maryam, a travel agent in Tehran who also only gave her first name, estimated that the number of travelers has been halved in a year. “The price of tickets and organized tours increased almost a hundred fold. They say that this will boost domestic holidays, but I think that is even too expensive for most people.”
This was evident to me last month flying back to Tehran from London via Dubai. Usually the flight from Dubai to Tehran is jammed, but not this time. Business and first class were full with the super-rich of Iran, but 70 percent of the plane which makes up the economy class was almost empty.
Expected to get worse
Mehdi is a young entrepreneur who imports computers and accessories who also spoke on the condition of anonymity. He said people are just not buying in Iran right now. His biggest wish was that the value of the rial would just stay fixed against dollar – even if it was at an unfavorable rate – just so consumers would know how much things would cost in a weeks’ time, a day or even in the next few hours.
While the sanctions have certainly taken a major bite out of the economy and are hurting people from all walks of life – it does not seem to be making the government authorities buckle. If anything it seems to have stiffened the government’s resolve and things are set to become even more difficult in the not too distant future.
Britain, France and Germany are urging their European Union partners "to further step up the pressure" on Iran. Further sanctions targeting the Islamic Republic's energy, finance, trade and transportation sectors are expected to be formally adopted on Oct. 15.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."