Jobs

cincybearcat

Aka "Goodbye Mitt, we hardly knew ya..."

http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/06/investi ... index.html

Since the repubs lose big on social issues, this will probably put an end to the election suspense. That is of course, if it maintains. However, the timing is perfect for Obama to hit the stage. I'm sure they are changing his speech at this very moment.

I still believe that Mitt circa 2008 would have made a fantastic president.

MayDay10

I gotta say, I cant stand a lot of the over-the-top hate....

but this kills me

dignin

cincybearcat wrote:

Aka "Goodbye Mitt, we hardly knew ya..."

http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/06/investi ... index.html

Since the repubs lose big on social issues, this will probably put an end to the election suspense. That is of course, if it maintains. However, the timing is perfect for Obama to hit the stage. I'm sure they are changing his speech at this very moment.

I still believe that Mitt circa 2008 would have made a fantastic president.

If that holds the Republicans job sure got harder.

Godfather.

MayDay10 wrote:

I gotta say, I cant stand a lot of the over-the-top hate....

but this kills me

Godfather.

hedonist

Every day, I see what appears to be some random reason for the DJI rising or falling, so I don't put much stock (no pun intended :P ) in the back-up / reasoning anymore.

Interesting sidenote which I may have mentioned before...we had a job opening here a few months ago. Good pay, benefits, location, working environment - a pretty nice gig all around. I was stunned by the stories our HR person told me about the overall blase attitudes of the "applicants"; it went from unpreparedness to downright rudeness to actually hanging up on the hiring manager.

I thought there'd be a plethora of qualified and willing people going for it, but, surprisingly...NO.

gimmesometruth27

cincybearcat wrote:

Aka "Goodbye Mitt, we hardly knew ya..."

http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/06/investi ... index.html

Since the repubs lose big on social issues, this will probably put an end to the election suspense. That is of course, if it maintains. However, the timing is perfect for Obama to hit the stage. I'm sure they are changing his speech at this very moment.

I still believe that Mitt circa 2008 would have made a fantastic president.

i'm not sure if it will hold until election day.

people have short memories these days.

it is certainly good news for the president though.

does anyone find it strange that things have been quiet from the romney and ryan camp this week? is it tradition for there to be no opposition from the gop during the dem convention week and vice versa? the dems were quiet last week too....

josevolution

I find it weird that even good news for the overall health of this Nation can somehow bring division and i'm not pointing at the OP just stating that i'm sure the GOP will not be happy with this report ....

Cosmo

cincybearcat wrote:

I still believe that Mitt circa 2008 would have made a fantastic president.

...
If it had been a 'McCain/Romney' ticket in 2008, things may have turned out quite different.
We'd STILL be in the same financial crisis because McCain would have had to do the same things in order to save the economy. And who knows, maybe Romneycare would be in place.
The Joker in the deck was Sarah Palin... that was a mistake that will never be repeated.

mikepegg44

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-econom ... 11662.html


under the estimate by about 24000...not that great

unemployment fell to 8.1% and no one can tell me that is because of the jobs created...

Indifference

From ZH:

In August, two months ahead of the presidential election ahead of which this number will be one of the most critical and talked about, the US generated just 96,000 non-farm payroll jobs, on expectations of 130K additions, and compared to the July number of 163,000, now revised to 143,000K. Private payrolls rose by a modest 103,000, much lower than the expected number of 142K, and down from July's revised 162K. -15,000 manufacturing jobs were lost, compared to the expected +10K, and sadly just a little bit short of Obama's recent promise to add 1 million manufacturing jobs by 2016. Finally, while the unemployment rate came lower (surprise, surprise: this is what appears in newspapers) at 8.1%, far lower than expectations of 8.3%, and below last month's 8.3%, the broad total underemployment rate (U-6) continues to be sticky at 14.7%. Birth Death added 87,000, up from July's 52,000. The reason for the drop in the unemployment rate: labor force participation dropped to 63.5%, down from 63.7%

inlet13

cincybearcat wrote:

Aka "Goodbye Mitt, we hardly knew ya..."

http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/06/investi ... index.html

Since the repubs lose big on social issues, this will probably put an end to the election suspense. That is of course, if it maintains. However, the timing is perfect for Obama to hit the stage. I'm sure they are changing his speech at this very moment.

I still believe that Mitt circa 2008 would have made a fantastic president.

This was a really ignorant post - sorry, cincy, but it was.

Next time - know the data. Yesterday, that was the ADP survey - not the employment report. The markets jumped yesterday because of:

1) ECB's news on bond buying
2) ISM Non-manufacturing
3) ADP jobs report

... it wasn't solely the jobs report. The ECB's news was first and foremost. Further, the ADP jobs report hasn't been lining up with the employment situation report which was released today.

Today we saw we gained 96000 jobs despite expectations of gaining 130000. That's terrible and if we continue at that rate, we'll fall back into recession. Moreover, they revised down the July number to 143000 from 163000. On net, that means we basically have 50,000-60,000 LESS jobs then we though we would today. The unemployment rate did not fall because of the pitiful 96000 created, it fell because labor force participation continues to drop to new record lows falling from 63.7 to 63.5. People are exiting "looking for work" and going into "I don't even feel like looking for work anymore".

What this really means - Obama gets to tout the 8.1% number. The Fed gets to tout a new QE. We get nothing, but more of the same shit to roll in.

EdsonNascimento

Indifference wrote:

From ZH:

In August, two months ahead of the presidential election ahead of which this number will be one of the most critical and talked about, the US generated just 96,000 non-farm payroll jobs, on expectations of 130K additions, and compared to the July number of 163,000, now revised to 143,000K. Private payrolls rose by a modest 103,000, much lower than the expected number of 142K, and down from July's revised 162K. -15,000 manufacturing jobs were lost, compared to the expected +10K, and sadly just a little bit short of Obama's recent promise to add 1 million manufacturing jobs by 2016. Finally, while the unemployment rate came lower (surprise, surprise: this is what appears in newspapers) at 8.1%, far lower than expectations of 8.3%, and below last month's 8.3%, the broad total underemployment rate (U-6) continues to be sticky at 14.7%. Birth Death added 87,000, up from July's 52,000. The reason for the drop in the unemployment rate: labor force participation dropped to 63.5%, down from 63.7%

That number is the lowest its been since September 1981. At the BEGINNING of someone's term. Not the end. We were smart enough in Nov 1980. Let's hope we're collectively smart enough 32 years later. I also think most folks don't vote on the numbers (i.e. I'm sure the Dems will point to the 8.1% number and not the real cause). They vote on their reality.

I guess the only real question is - do the folks that have simply given up feel their existence on gov't handouts is sufficient. I would think not. I'd like to believe those folks really want to be in the labor market. But, I guess we'll see......

cincybearcat

inlet13 wrote:

cincybearcat wrote:

Aka "Goodbye Mitt, we hardly knew ya..."

http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/06/investi ... index.html

Since the repubs lose big on social issues, this will probably put an end to the election suspense. That is of course, if it maintains. However, the timing is perfect for Obama to hit the stage. I'm sure they are changing his speech at this very moment.

I still believe that Mitt circa 2008 would have made a fantastic president.

This was a really ignorant post - sorry, cincy, but it was.

Next time - know the data. Yesterday, that was the ADP survey - not the employment report. The markets jumped yesterday because of:

1) ECB's news on bond buying
2) ISM Non-manufacturing
3) ADP jobs report

... it wasn't solely the jobs report. The ECB's news was first and foremost. Further, the ADP jobs report hasn't been lining up with the employment situation report which was released today.

Today we saw we gained 96000 jobs despite expectations of gaining 130000. That's terrible and if we continue at that rate, we'll fall back into recession. Moreover, they revised down the July number to 143000 from 163000. On net, that means we basically have 50,000-60,000 LESS jobs then we though we would today. The unemployment rate did not fall because of the pitiful 96000 created, it fell because labor force participation continues to drop to new record lows falling from 63.7 to 63.5. People are exiting "looking for work" and going into "I don't even feel like looking for work anymore".

What this really means - Obama gets to tout the 8.1% number. The Fed gets to tout a new QE. We get nothing, but more of the same shit to roll in.

Hahaha, my point being is any decent news about jobs and great news about the stock market is going to make it so much easier for Obama to win. And I think he is already ahead by a decent amount.

So, really not that ignorant, but really I don't care what you think about my post. I just wish you could comprehend it.

cincybearcat

http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/07/investi ... ce=cnn_bin


Hahahaha, it's like they set it up for him to be on stage with good things happening...then everything returned to our new normal.

inlet13

cincybearcat wrote:

inlet13 wrote:

cincybearcat wrote:

Aka "Goodbye Mitt, we hardly knew ya..."

http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/06/investi ... index.html

Since the repubs lose big on social issues, this will probably put an end to the election suspense. That is of course, if it maintains. However, the timing is perfect for Obama to hit the stage. I'm sure they are changing his speech at this very moment.

I still believe that Mitt circa 2008 would have made a fantastic president.

This was a really ignorant post - sorry, cincy, but it was.

Next time - know the data. Yesterday, that was the ADP survey - not the employment report. The markets jumped yesterday because of:

1) ECB's news on bond buying
2) ISM Non-manufacturing
3) ADP jobs report

... it wasn't solely the jobs report. The ECB's news was first and foremost. Further, the ADP jobs report hasn't been lining up with the employment situation report which was released today.

Today we saw we gained 96000 jobs despite expectations of gaining 130000. That's terrible and if we continue at that rate, we'll fall back into recession. Moreover, they revised down the July number to 143000 from 163000. On net, that means we basically have 50,000-60,000 LESS jobs then we though we would today. The unemployment rate did not fall because of the pitiful 96000 created, it fell because labor force participation continues to drop to new record lows falling from 63.7 to 63.5. People are exiting "looking for work" and going into "I don't even feel like looking for work anymore".

What this really means - Obama gets to tout the 8.1% number. The Fed gets to tout a new QE. We get nothing, but more of the same shit to roll in.

Hahaha, my point being is any decent news about jobs and great news about the stock market is going to make it so much easier for Obama to win. And I think he is already ahead by a decent amount.

So, really not that ignorant, but really I don't care what you think about my post. I just wish you could comprehend it.

I read it and comprehended it. It was off- at least of the fact that other things - non-jobs related - were why stocks went up yesterday. Further, it was off in acting as though one report dictates an election (either way). Not saying the ADP report didn't help stocks (or even look good for Obama), it did. But, the main catalyst of stock growth yesterday was not the ADP report. Reason I claimed ignorance is there's been a multitude of pom-pom Obama supporters in here who pointed in the past to 500+ one-day gains in the Dow and said it's proof his policies work, only to see 1000 point loses the next two days. Those people, when they do that, show ignorance to the fact that volatility within financial markets is rarely a positive... large gains can be followed by large losses... particularly when macro fundamentals are driving markets. One positive report can be followed by a negative one... like today.

What would help Obama's cause is QE3. That's kinda why stocks were up yesterday - The ECB announced something similar - that's Europe's move towards something similar. Further, the ADP report (yesterday) is miniscule in terms of recognition to the employment situation (today). I'm trying to say the economy sucks right now. People can pick one report all they want and argue that it seal Obama's re-election. I'll argue back - I think that's not very smart.

I'm sure Obama will try to use the 8.1% figure. But, he should be careful. The October number could easily bounce back up if less people exit the labor force or if the birth/death model alters the statistics. Job creation is really the key. This number is horrid. It doesn't help his cause.

But, then again, like I said before... if helps spark interest in QE3. And QE3 def. will help his cause. Talk about a rise in stocks. The Dow would be around 7000 without QE1 and QE2. It's at 13000.

I'll also say - if the BLS finds a way to get unemployment below 8% before the election, regardless of how (most likely it would have little to do with more jobs), I think Obama's chances sky-rocket. There's two reports left to do that and it could take only one.

cincybearcat

inlet13 wrote:

It was off- at least of the fact that other things - non-jobs related - were why stocks went up yesterday.

Yeah, so I picked the wrong title. I originally had it titled g'bye mitt...but changed it. Oh well, I'll do better next time, give me another chance!!!!

inlet13

cincybearcat wrote:

inlet13 wrote:

It was off- at least of the fact that other things - non-jobs related - were why stocks went up yesterday.

Yeah, so I picked the wrong title. I originally had it titled g'bye mitt...but changed it. Oh well, I'll do better next time, give me another chance!!!!

:nono:

I'll give you one more shot, but only one more.

blackredyellow

inlet13 wrote:

I'll also say - if the BLS finds a way to get unemployment below 8% before the election, regardless of how (most likely it would have little to do with more jobs), I think Obama's chances sky-rocket. There's two reports left to do that and it could take only one.

That is the huge number in election terms. Regardless of the reasons behind it, (or the accuracy of the number), if the number keeps going down, Obama's chances keep going up.

inlet13

blackredyellow wrote:

inlet13 wrote:

I'll also say - if the BLS finds a way to get unemployment below 8% before the election, regardless of how (most likely it would have little to do with more jobs), I think Obama's chances sky-rocket. There's two reports left to do that and it could take only one.

That is the huge number in election terms. Regardless of the reasons behind it, (or the accuracy of the number), if the number keeps going down, Obama's chances keep going up.

Yep. It will be interesting to see if people fall for the number or for what they "see, hear and feel around them". Because if they trust what they see, hear and feel more than the number,... it's bad for Obama regardless - . But, if they trust the number, or the media touting it, it's certainly good. I think people are inherently mislead by the media, so I do think they'll trust the number. So, if it goes below 8%... good reason or bad (most likely bad), it will be big for Obama.

In fact, I think it may fall to 7.9% by Nov. Just because the labor force data is so f'ing weird and shady.

inlet13

Interesting article (check out the chart):

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/real-unem ... its-record

Real Unemployment Rate Hits 11.7% As Spread Between Reported And Propaganda Data Hits Record

Today's reported unemployment rate: 8.1%. The reason: the labor "participation" dropped to a 31 year low 63.5% as reported earlier. Of course, this number is pure propaganda, and makes no sense for one simple reason: despite the economic collapse started in December 2007, the US civilian non-institutional population since then has grown by 186,000 people every month on average hitting an all time high of 243,566,000 in August. These people need a job, and the traditional shorthand is that at least 100,000 jobs have the be generated every month for the unemployment rate to merely stay flat, let along improve. So what does one get when one uses the long-term average of the past 30 or so years which happens to be 65.8%? One gets an unemployment number that is 45% higher than the reported 8.1%, or 11.7%. That is what the real unemployment rate is assuming the US labor participation rate was realistic and not manipulated by the BLS cronies and the Bank of Spain assisted Arima-X-13 seasonal adjustment models. It also means that, as the chart below shows, the spread between the real and propaganda data hit an all time record, which was to be expected two months ahead of America's banker muppet presidential election.