UBS Report: Hyperinflation In UK & US Possible In Next 12Mo.

DriftingByTheStorm

Uh.
It's only a TEN PERCENT chance,
but even the simple fact they are discussing and assigning a probability to this at all is NOT GOOD.
Zerohedge Article: With Full UBS Report & Graphs Included

BusinessInsider:Talking Points of UBS Report in Summary

Was tipped off to this news by TFMetalsreport.com ...

where he is noting (like just about everyone else who watches metals with any regularity) that gold and silver have "winded down" in to the very very very tail end of their several month running "pennant" or "flag" patterns and are poised to "break out" [by default, the pattern MUST break up or down] ... and a break the upside would be (not only logical, since metals have been down down down & suppressed for months) a signal (based on Technical Analysis \ Chart Patterns) to the markets to BUY BUY BUY. This very fact (the pattern) could end up being the beginning of another huge spike in metals prices (i mean, this could be what sends gold over $2000\oz) but we will have to see. It could also be a harbinger of another sort ...

While metals and currency have been "seperated" in strict terms for a long time, there is still a correlation present, and sharp break in metals to the upside could end up putting pressure on currencies, if only by acting as a signal that "inflation" is "real".'

Very interesting times.
This is like ... the calm before the storm ... if you ask me.
or :(

usamamasan1

another reason to have guns...

Byrnzie

usamamasan1 wrote:

another reason to have guns...

I did actually laugh out loud when I read that. Keep 'em comin'!

DriftingByTheStorm

Here is some more interesting glumness ...
an image from an article over at seekingalpha.com which is attempting to explain just how UNSUSTAINABLE United States Debt Growth is by showing that DEMAND FOR US DEBT HAS DROPPED SO PRECARIOUSLY THAT NOW *THE FEDERAL RESERVER* ITSELF ACCOUNTS FOR A WHOPPING & HISTORICALLY ABERRANT 61% OF ALL US DEBT PURCHASES.



If this is confusing to you,
imagine that you, yourself are in desperate need of money, as you owe debt to every member of your immediate and extended family, every friend and acquaintance, and even a good few of your enemies.

No longer able to go to ANY of these sources head-in-hand, seeking MORE money (they just won't give it to you) you decide to SPLIT YOUR SELF IN TWO ... you call your LEFT HAND "YOU" and your RIGHT HAND "YOUR RESERVE" ... your left hand then gives your right hand a bunch of little post-it note "IOUs" and your right hand MAGICALLY PRODUCES CASH OUT OF YOUR ASSHOLE and hands it over. You now just went IN DEBT TO YOUR SELF to pay back everyone else ... the only catch being, YOUR ASSHOLE IS NOW ON THE HOOK for repayment to your right hand.

WE are the "asshole(s)", the Federal Reserve is your right hand, and the "United States" is your left hand.

stupid analogy, but certainly not NEARLY as stupid as the "trend" this chart indicates.

THIS IS IN NO WAY SUSTAINABLE.

brianlux

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

Very interesting times.
This is like ... the calm before the storm ... if you ask me.
or :(

Interesting times indeed! It reals does feel like a weird sort of calm before the storm. Let's hope people are enough used to the calm and remain sedated enough for the storm to not be too violent. (Not likely, I suppose.)

Interesting and educational articles. Thanks!

DriftingByTheStorm

Just to give some idea of what "calm before the storm" I'm talking about here (although, in reality, i'm talking about the conglomeration of NUMEROUS events) here is the yealy, 2 year, and 10 year chart for gold so you can see just how abnormally "tight" or "wound" metals are, and how they have been "basing" in a way indicative of a massive breakout (either up or down) ... you are drawing with your brain a horizontal support line underneath the graph, and then a diagonal line running from the top left to the bottom right. This "pennant" pattern is one of the most widely recognized patterns in Technical Analysis and is an indication that a correction in a commodity has occurred to the point that movement has been so stifled and rangebound by opposing forces (sellers & buyers) that it is "wound" and ready to explode one way or the other.

This is one of the most dramatic examples of a long term (ie. not intra-day, but many months running) pennant that i can remember in quite some time.

See here on the one year chart. This "basing" momentum of the chart occupys the ENTIRE YEAR.
Essentially the chart itself IS the "pennant".


Scaling back out a year to the two year chart, you can see, starting around the end of April 2011 where the pennant starts (oh here, i found a way to edit online, i drew the pennant for you folks!):


and again, pulling WAY back to the 10 year chart, you get an idea of not just how glaringly obvious\abnormal this long running pennant is, but also yous see just HOW incredibly "wound" the pattern is. This thing literally has no where left to go. We are talking a matter of days to a week-or-two before *significant* movement could be expected from a purely Techincal Analysis perspective:


Anyhow.
Again, no INHERENT meaning in any of this "chartology", but Technical Analysis is WIDELY used, both by human traders, and the computers themselves, in making trading decisions. This is ONE WHOPPER of a TA chart formation, and bears scrutiny\consideration. It is definitely VERY close to "completion".

Weird.

PS ...
here is just ONE good example of a real historical "pennant" pattern (this is from the Eur\USD forex chart apparently) that shows what can and often does happen when a well recognized pattern breaks to one side, indicating confirmation, and then the chart "runs" in the direction of the break\confirmation.


notice how range bound it was within the pennant, and how after breaking north enough to "confirm" the breakout, the next candle up is SIGNIFICANT, and then the chart runs up.

Just took 1 upticking candle outside of that pennant range to confirm, then BOOM!

DriftingByTheStorm

Spanish markets teetering on fears that bailout will fall short

World Stock Markets Plunge on Spain Debt Fears \ Euro At 2 Year Low Against Dollar

DriftingByTheStorm

Jeez.
Even options expiration can't get metals to move ... up or down.
Rangebound, strangetown. :? :? :?

On another SUPER SMILEY NOTE: ( :fp: :fp: wahh wahh :fp: :fp: )

Economic Data, Earnings and Europe Stall Stocks on Tuesday

A more significant disappointment was the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July. Although economists had been anticipating an increase to zero in July from June’s -1, the index took a sixteen-point nosedive to -17.

Ouch.
Yeah. The economy "keeps getting better".
I am SOOOOOOOOOOOOO fucking sick of Koolaid Drinking Brain Dead Zombies telling me this.
"The Economy's Getting Better Every Month, For Like, Two Year... - Chris Rock
Sureeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.
:roll: :roll: :fp: :roll: :roll:

aerial

Is anyone surprised about this? Did you not see this coming?

aerial

usamamasan1 wrote:

another reason to have guns...

You are sooo right! ah correct

DriftingByTheStorm

aerial wrote:

Is anyone surprised about this? Did you not see this coming?

See what coming?

DriftingByTheStorm

Britain's economy sinks far deeper into recession than forecast

Britain's gross domestic product fell 0.7 per cent compared with the first three months, the sharpest fall since the height of the global financial crisis in early 2009, the Office for National Statistics said, showing a bigger drop than any of the economists surveyed in a Reuters poll last week had expecte

Also,
metals have begun their assent from "the bottom". We shall see if this rise holds and\or if it becomes meteoric or not. So far it's still in the pennant\wedge, although JUST BARELY. Won't be able to see how much it's pushing against the top of the pennant until tomorrow, because we need to wait for the 1year chart to capture todays movement, but if tomorrow sees gold rise another $20-$40, i believe that MAY be considered as "confirmation", because it will most likely be outside of the pennant (shown again below for clarity, but not reflecting today's big pop, except as free-hand drawn by yours screwily) ...

GOLD


SILVER


POPPING OUT OF THE PENNANT TODAY? (must wait and see tomorrow)
IF so, with continued rise tomorrow = "confirmation" of pattern = TO THE MOON


PS - i have to admit, after consulting my trading book, this pattern is probably much more accurately described NOT as a "pennant" but as a "descending triangle", and as such, is SUPPOSEDLY an **inherently BEARISH** "continuation pattern" ... which is odd, because it is starting to break to the UP side (bullish) ... which just goes to show ... Chartology ≠ Science
hmmm. ::scratches head::

DriftingByTheStorm

full size image

Chart taken from latest TFMetals Report post ... i added two extra red lines because i think they more clearly show the pattern.

Also note that Turd is only drawing the base line from no further back than April 2012 which makes it more clearly a "pennant" than a "descending triangle" ...

either way, the takeaway is that metal is starting to break to the upside of a pattern that represents consolidation.