Just Curious...

lukin2006

With the recent jump in gas prices does anyone feel that the oil companies are trying to put/keep us in recession with the hope of getting a republican in the white house...

discuss please....

Prince Of Dorkness

let's not forget how gas prices magically plummeted in the months leading up to Barack Obama's election and then almost immediately climbed right back up.

klusterfuk

lukin2006 wrote:

With the recent jump in gas prices does anyone feel that the oil companies are trying to put/keep us in recession with the hope of getting a republican in the white house...

discuss please....

yes.

Jason P

The Iranian elections are impacting gas prices more then the American elections ... at this point.

I don't think the oil companies care who is in office. Check out this link:

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=us&product=oil&graph=production

U.S. oil production had been in steady decline since 1985 until .... 2008. And it's been increasing ever since. :think:

peacefrompaul

Jason P wrote:

The Iranian elections are impacting gas prices more then the American elections ... at this point.

I don't think the oil companies care who is in office. Check out this link:

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=us&product=oil&graph=production

U.S. oil production had been in steady decline since 1985 until .... 2008. And it's been increasing ever since. :think:

That's weird that the Iranian elections are effecting the oil prices... I just don't see why.

I assume the elections are rigged by the Ayatollah as they were in 2009...

Could you explain for me?

Godfather.

dipsticks in washington.....they use what we need most aginst us...coruption...nahhhhhhh :shock:
yes I agree, it's a friggin game every election year but the bottom line is that it keeps going up in price and oil companys laugh all the way to the bank,it's time for a hostil take over of the oil companies

Godfather.

mikepegg44

lukin2006 wrote:

With the recent jump in gas prices does anyone feel that the oil companies are trying to put/keep us in recession with the hope of getting a republican in the white house...

discuss please....

no.

republican or democrat makes no difference to them in the end.

oil companies do better when the world is not in a recession

economies around the world buying more oil and in the middle east ...oil rises...

summer comes...gas goes up, winter comes...gas goes down...our elections are in November...they will be down again by the election

Jason P

peacefrompaul wrote:

That's weird that the Iranian elections are effecting the oil prices... I just don't see why.

I assume the elections are rigged by the Ayatollah as they were in 2009...

Could you explain for me?

It's election day in Iran today. The saber rattling over the past month (war games; threats on closing the straits; threats on attacking) have been in direct coloration to the elections. The rhetoric from Iran is why a barrel of oil has gone over $100 recently.

I believe the elections to be rigged, but I think recent action have been done to preserve a hard-line control and fear in the populace.

peacefrompaul

Jason P wrote:

peacefrompaul wrote:

That's weird that the Iranian elections are effecting the oil prices... I just don't see why.

I assume the elections are rigged by the Ayatollah as they were in 2009...

Could you explain for me?

It's election day in Iran today. The saber rattling over the past month (war games; threats on closing the straits; threats on attacking) have been in direct coloration to the elections. The rhetoric from Iran is why a barrel of oil has gone over $100 recently.

I believe the elections to be rigged, but I think recent action have been done to preserve a hard-line control and fear in the populace.

Interesting! Thanks

FiveB247x

With such big, influential energy companies, there is little reason to believe that the election of which party will seriously change or dictate the cost of oil and gas. The reality is these are bought and sold based on very fabricated notions, not really supply and demand. If anything the OPEC's nations politics and stability effect the price more than our own leadership.

inlet13

No.

The rise in gas prices stems from printing of money by the Fed and global central banks (fueling inflation - this is the most important reason), the subsequent ever-so-slight rebound in the global economy (pushing demand higher), increased energy regulation in the US (acting as a premium on the price), less refineries (leading to a decline in supply), and perhaps 2nd most important - the threat of an Iranian war or conflict (pushing speculators to assume supply will decline).

If you think it's just gasoline that has shown increasing prices, and extreme volatility in certain cases, over the past several years, think again. Food prices have also shown a generally increasing trend, and volatility in certain situations. My point - this is primarily inflation driven, hence the Fed and central banks are primarily to blame. You can't print money for years on end and not expect that inflation will become a problem, particularly if certain non-inflationary aspects change (Iran cutting off supplies, etc.)

gimmesometruth27

lukin2006 wrote:

With the recent jump in gas prices does anyone feel that the oil companies are trying to put/keep us in recession with the hope of getting a republican in the white house...

discuss please....

yes.

i'll do you one better.

it would not surprise me in the least that the oil companies and the banks/credit card companies are in some sort of collusion. oil companies know that people need gas and will do anything to get it, and that includes using credit cards to buy it. and with some credit cards interest rates being over 20% they know that people will have to use it to buy gas. big business knows that it is a good thing for them to keep people in debt, because it is easier to control them. and they get them in debt by setting prices high knowing that people will pay whatever and however to get it.

mikepegg44

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8WReKlU ... e=youtu.be

check it


Ben Swann explains it rather well


CPI excludes very important things to regular consumers...just another reason the fed is out of touch


it is just easier to blame oil companies.

FiveB247x

This is a very short-sighted commentary to this problem. The reality is before the Fed messed up things with inflation/printing money or Iran issues, there was Iraq issues or other middle east conflicts or perhaps the gulf oil spill or perhaps the changing of the season (winter/summer especially) fluctuates prices regularly. Your answer may seem succinct on the surface through a particular vantage point in a specific moment in time (now), but overall, for the rising gas prices and market for the past 10-20 yrs, it is not on point. If it were simply supply and demand, oil prices would be higher. If it were solely conflicts and foreign affairs/policies effecting stability, the prices would be much more erratic. 60 Minutes did a good piece a few years back about this topic and it clearly shows how much of the oil market is contrived and based on speculation than direct factors as you allude too. http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4713382n

inlet13 wrote:

No.

The rise in gas prices stems from printing of money by the Fed and global central banks (fueling inflation - this is the most important reason), the subsequent ever-so-slight rebound in the global economy (pushing demand higher), increased energy regulation in the US (acting as a premium on the price), less refineries (leading to a decline in supply), and perhaps 2nd most important - the threat of an Iranian war or conflict (pushing speculators to assume supply will decline).

If you think it's just gasoline that has shown increasing prices, and extreme volatility in certain cases, over the past several years, think again. Food prices have also shown a generally increasing trend, and volatility in certain situations. My point - this is primarily inflation driven, hence the Fed and central banks are primarily to blame. You can't print money for years on end and not expect that inflation will become a problem, particularly if certain non-inflationary aspects change (Iran cutting off supplies, etc.)

lukin2006

I tend to think they'd rather have a republican...if a republican was in office keystone would be a go.

lukin2006

gimmesometruth27 wrote:

lukin2006 wrote:

With the recent jump in gas prices does anyone feel that the oil companies are trying to put/keep us in recession with the hope of getting a republican in the white house...

discuss please....

yes.

i'll do you one better.

it would not surprise me in the least that the oil companies and the banks/credit card companies are in some sort of collusion. oil companies know that people need gas and will do anything to get it, and that includes using credit cards to buy it. and with some credit cards interest rates being over 20% they know that people will have to use it to buy gas. big business knows that it is a good thing for them to keep people in debt, because it is easier to control them. and they get them in debt by setting prices high knowing that people will pay whatever and however to get it.

Good post, I never thought of linking credit card companies to oil companies...

Jason P

How come Big Pharma isn't getting any love in these theories?

lukin2006

Jason P wrote:

How come Big Pharma isn't getting any love in these theories?

That a whole new thread...is Big Pharma keeping pot illegal?

FiveB247x

This is merely speculation with no real fact to back it. It takes two things which have similar goals (profit) and infers they are somehow linked when in fact there's no proof of it. People like to assume there's some grand spiderweb with secret meetings in a dark room which pull the strings to make the world run.. in reality, things typically happen independently and converge on similar basis. In this example, it's merely two independent fields both aimed at making money at the hand of consumers. The price of oil goes up, airlines then say - hey this is a good reason to put a surcharge of bags and a gas fee. They don't have a secret meeting between the two business areas for this to occur. Companies merely prey on consumers in order to create profit and opportunity to make more profit. To automatically assume things are in congruency is merely skepticism and paranoia more than fact or details.

lukin2006 wrote:

Good post, I never thought of linking credit card companies to oil companies...

inlet13

FiveB247x wrote:

This is a very short-sighted commentary to this problem. The reality is before the Fed messed up things with inflation/printing money or Iran issues, there was Iraq issues or other middle east conflicts or perhaps the gulf oil spill or perhaps the changing of the season (winter/summer especially) fluctuates prices regularly. Your answer may seem succinct on the surface through a particular vantage point in a specific moment in time (now), but overall, for the rising gas prices and market for the past 10-20 yrs, it is not on point. If it were simply supply and demand, oil prices would be higher. If it were solely conflicts and foreign affairs/policies effecting stability, the prices would be much more erratic. 60 Minutes did a good piece a few years back about this topic and it clearly shows how much of the oil market is contrived and based on speculation than direct factors as you allude too. http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4713382n

inlet13 wrote:

No.

The rise in gas prices stems from printing of money by the Fed and global central banks (fueling inflation - this is the most important reason), the subsequent ever-so-slight rebound in the global economy (pushing demand higher), increased energy regulation in the US (acting as a premium on the price), less refineries (leading to a decline in supply), and perhaps 2nd most important - the threat of an Iranian war or conflict (pushing speculators to assume supply will decline).

If you think it's just gasoline that has shown increasing prices, and extreme volatility in certain cases, over the past several years, think again. Food prices have also shown a generally increasing trend, and volatility in certain situations. My point - this is primarily inflation driven, hence the Fed and central banks are primarily to blame. You can't print money for years on end and not expect that inflation will become a problem, particularly if certain non-inflationary aspects change (Iran cutting off supplies, etc.)

No, I don't believe it's short-sighted at all. The Fed has been "messing things up with inflation/printing money" since (at least) the 70s (one could argue, they have been doing so since the Fed was created). And I don't disagree that prior to Iran there was Iraq issues or other mid-east conflicts. No offense, but I don't understand your point. Sure, there's been conflicts over there for extended periods of time, and anticipation of those conflicts drives prices up because of fears of supply shocks. It's pretty straight-forward in my opinion.

You said my answer may seem succinct "now", but not for over 10-20 years. My answer was in regards to the original posters question on why oil prices are high right "now". Basically, I was pointing out the complexities with these prices and the fact that it has nothing to do with who's in office other than the 'regulatory' aspect.

Moreover, I think Fed policy, regulation and taxes (think Ethanol), refineries, drilling (supply and demand which could include conflicts and spills) and finally world economic growth (particularly in EMs - think China and India) are the reasons for the high prices over the past 10-20 years.

Do I think speculation plays a part in high prices? That's not a simple question to answer. I'd say yes in that I think they certainly add to volatility. But, I'd say no in that they drive prices down just as much as up. After all, speculators are speculating and trying to make money on the direction of oil prices based on the following: central bank driven inflation, wars, conflicts, spills, regulation, world economic growth.

inlet13

Depending on measures, inflation could be considered to be up 8%:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505144_162- ... you-think/

...this is pervasive and shows it's liquidity driven.




My point: MONETARY POLICY MATTERS.

FiveB247x

I don't discount that it matters in some respect, but I would say it matters no more than any of the factors I listed previously which are more contrived reasons for the rises/changes to oil.

Also, here is a brief history of oil prices from 1947 to present which also highlights some conflicts and political reasons for the rise in oil prices. Please note I am not posting this solely to say these were the only reasons for the rises/changes in oil prices, but more so to show you over the course of the past x number of years, inflation has not been the sole or main factor in the changes in oil prices.

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

inlet13 wrote:

Depending on measures, inflation could be considered to be up 8%:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505144_162- ... you-think/

...this is pervasive and shows it's liquidity driven.




My point: MONETARY POLICY MATTERS.

cincybearcat

No, I think they just like to make $.

inlet13

FiveB247x wrote:

I don't discount that it matters in some respect, but I would say it matters no more than any of the factors I listed previously which are more contrived reasons for the rises/changes to oil.

Also, here is a brief history of oil prices from 1947 to present which also highlights some conflicts and political reasons for the rise in oil prices. Please note I am not posting this solely to say these were the only reasons for the rises/changes in oil prices, but more so to show you over the course of the past x number of years, inflation has not been the sole or main factor in the changes in oil prices.

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

inlet13 wrote:

Depending on measures, inflation could be considered to be up 8%:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505144_162- ... you-think/

...this is pervasive and shows it's liquidity driven.




My point: MONETARY POLICY MATTERS.

By definition inflation is a rise in prices, so it doesn't make sense to say it doesn't matter here. That said, your link doesn't work. Also, I don't know "what the other factors you listed" are. I can't find them. For all I know, I will agree that those factors matter.

My issue is in regards to the distaste for speculation. People think speculation is bad when prices rise, but good when they decline (they rarely actually say it's good or have reports on the news when this happens, they are just happy the price is low). It's retarded. Speculation, here, is based on price "expectations". So, my point is supply and demand matters now for the market (clearly), but in terms of speculation it's not supply and demand right now (for speculators), it's supply and demand down the line.

But, I digress.

FiveB247x

The other factors I was referring too was the political, social and economic variables that are always ongoing and more used as an excuse than a direct reason for adjustments to the price.

As for speculation, it works great if it is solely based on supply and demand, but in this instance it is not. Watch the brief story about it on 60 minutes (I posted above) as they discuss it directly. Speculation and the "free market" can lead to price gauging, speculation and bubbles like we saw on many internet stocks in the 90's. The oil market is very contrived and not based on supply and demand solely by any means, but instead uses a variety of gauges to make adjustments.

inlet13 wrote:

By definition inflation is a rise in prices, so it doesn't make sense to say it doesn't matter here. That said, your link doesn't work. Also, I don't know "what the other factors you listed" are. I can't find them. For all I know, I will agree that those factors matter.

My issue is in regards to the distaste for speculation. People think speculation is bad when prices rise, but good when they decline (they rarely actually say it's good or have reports on the news when this happens, they are just happy the price is low). It's retarded. Speculation, here, is based on price "expectations". So, my point is supply and demand matters now for the market (clearly), but in terms of speculation it's not supply and demand right now (for speculators), it's supply and demand down the line.

But, I digress.

inlet13

FiveB247x wrote:

The other factors I was referring too was the political, social and economic variables that are always ongoing and more used as an excuse than a direct reason for adjustments to the price.

As for speculation, it works great if it is solely based on supply and demand, but in this instance it is not. Watch the brief story about it on 60 minutes (I posted above) as they discuss it directly. Speculation and the "free market" can lead to price gauging, speculation and bubbles like we saw on many internet stocks in the 90's. The oil market is very contrived and not based on supply and demand solely by any means, but instead uses a variety of gauges to make adjustments.

inlet13 wrote:

By definition inflation is a rise in prices, so it doesn't make sense to say it doesn't matter here. That said, your link doesn't work. Also, I don't know "what the other factors you listed" are. I can't find them. For all I know, I will agree that those factors matter.

My issue is in regards to the distaste for speculation. People think speculation is bad when prices rise, but good when they decline (they rarely actually say it's good or have reports on the news when this happens, they are just happy the price is low). It's retarded. Speculation, here, is based on price "expectations". So, my point is supply and demand matters now for the market (clearly), but in terms of speculation it's not supply and demand right now (for speculators), it's supply and demand down the line.

But, I digress.

The video basically reiterated what I was saying about speculation. Watch the first 10 seconds, he’s saying that the price of gas fell “faster” than it rose. That’s speculation at work too, but never really gets media play. Like I said, speculation definitely could increase volatility, but in my opinion, it’s very questionable that it’s the reason for “sustained” increases in the price of gas. It simply adds to volatility as more investors try to gauge where prices are going.

Sticking with the 60 minutes piece, the issue was the price was rising (going into the 2008 election – that’s why McCain picked Palin btw) then crashed as the host says ”with the stock market” (the Lehman collapse). Both were bubbles. But, it’s not really fundamentally the speculators causing the bubble IMHO, but rather macroeconomic fundamentals finally becoming clear to everyone within the economy. IN my opinion, the speculators just try to make money given their view of the environment. When the environment changes, they change their investment. I believe the Fed controls that environment. For example, the price of gas crashed right after (or around the same time as) the stock market did. Why? Well, because speculators knew that the economy was heading into recession (hence demand for oil would retrench). Why did it increase prior to that? Because there were bubbles building throughout the economy from the cheap money the Fed was pumping into it. This thanks to our friend Alan Greenspan keeping rates low since the early 2000s. As the interest rates were kept low, velocity and money supply increase… increasing real GDP, and seemingly appearing that demand was high. But, when players realized it was all a bubble, they bailed on the investment, and the price (stock market or gas) collapsed.

I don’t see anything at all stunning from the video. Basically, they point a wagging finger at speculation and say they cause this! They are also incorrectly stating it doesn’t have to do with supply and demand (in my opinion because I don't agree with their semantics). I respond, I guess you can make that “semantical” argument that the basic "fundeamentals" of supply and demand did not cause the rises or declines (key word fundamentals). But, in my opinion, the reality is their wrong unless we know exactly what they mean by "fundamentals". It is supply and demand in my opinion because I think investors buying oil is just like us buying it at the pump (we're all demand). The “fundamental” semantical argument they could make is saying speculators are NOT part of demand. Once again, if that’s what they meant, I'd need to look at the data, but I may agree... unfortunately though this is a pointless semantival argument.

Listen to the video again and watch the words they use. They use "actual" demand or demand "fundamentals", basically trying to hedge out speculators from part of demand. But, I’d say they are part of demand and due to that they cause price increases because they increase demand for oil. But, they also cause price decreases. Basically, they are part of demand.

The confusion is summarized with the misconception that demand "expectations" should not matter in the current price. Expectations do matter when it comes to prices because they influence demand. We can be upset all we want about that when we see high prices, but it's just a reality and always will be.

This charade is silly though. People get all up in arms about speculators (demand) and oil companies (supply) when the prices rise; and when they fall, they go back to not caring. My point is it’s either ok all along or not ok (in my opinion it’s fine all along). We can’t have it both ways.