***DONALD J TRUMP HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN IMPEACHED***

lindamarie73 said:

Rumored dates for the boys to play in the Spring.  Hopefully this is true....

#LFG

Ledbetterman10 said:

tbergs said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

mrussel1 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

tbergs said:

RYME said:

2020 is going to be a great year.

Couldn't agree more. Impeached Trump will be voted out of office and face legal troubles the rest of his life until his health fully fails from living a horrible lifestyle and being a greedy shmuck who gladly duped 60 million plus people. 

That all sounds nice. But how I think it'll go down is Impeached Trump will not be voted out of office, he'll be re-elected as President in November, and nearly everyone here will complain about it for four more years.

Well that'll give us something to do at least. 

Well hopefully there's actual Pearl Jam stuff to talk about in 2020 so that Trump can be on the backburner. An album, a North American tour, something to celebrate the band's 30th anniversary....anything. 

As much as I love Pearl Jam, anything they do pales in comparison to the horrendous shit this asshole is able to do on a daily basis that will impact this country and the world for years to come.

I'm a pessisimist, but no way this guy gets the miracle slim wins he got in those flipped states in 2016. Do you think his support, has grown or even stayed the same? All of those "swing" voters that voted against Hillary just because they hated her won't have the same luxury of using that excuse, as lame as it was in the first place. Sure, lots of supporters hiding in the shadows, but no more than those that already came out and voted last time. He got his max voting results in 2016. No way he clears 60 million again.

I think he wins by a larger margin this time, like Bush in 2004. For all her faults, I think Hillary was a much better candidate than whoever the 2020 Dem is going to be.

well he lost by 3 million votes in the popular vote so for him to win by a larger margin means he will have to win more states this time around for the electoral college.  I don't see how that is possible.  i mean how many people who didn't vote for him in 2016 are going to vote for him in 2020? is it possible he has gained any votes? agree the Dem candidates suck though.

The Juggler said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

tbergs said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

mrussel1 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

tbergs said:

RYME said:

2020 is going to be a great year.

Couldn't agree more. Impeached Trump will be voted out of office and face legal troubles the rest of his life until his health fully fails from living a horrible lifestyle and being a greedy shmuck who gladly duped 60 million plus people. 

That all sounds nice. But how I think it'll go down is Impeached Trump will not be voted out of office, he'll be re-elected as President in November, and nearly everyone here will complain about it for four more years.

Well that'll give us something to do at least. 

Well hopefully there's actual Pearl Jam stuff to talk about in 2020 so that Trump can be on the backburner. An album, a North American tour, something to celebrate the band's 30th anniversary....anything. 

As much as I love Pearl Jam, anything they do pales in comparison to the horrendous shit this asshole is able to do on a daily basis that will impact this country and the world for years to come.

I'm a pessisimist, but no way this guy gets the miracle slim wins he got in those flipped states in 2016. Do you think his support, has grown or even stayed the same? All of those "swing" voters that voted against Hillary just because they hated her won't have the same luxury of using that excuse, as lame as it was in the first place. Sure, lots of supporters hiding in the shadows, but no more than those that already came out and voted last time. He got his max voting results in 2016. No way he clears 60 million again.

I think he wins by a larger margin this time, like Bush in 2004. For all her faults, I think Hillary was a much better candidate than whoever the 2020 Dem is going to be.

Bush's pre Iraq war ceiling was 58%. Trump's is 43%. That explains why Bush had a chance of doing better in '04.

No shot in hell Trump builds his base anywhere close to that. He's lucky to keep it the same. 

Well the point I'm trying to make (but didn't actually articulate it) is about the opponent, not the incumbent. As bad as Bush seemed, I think a lot of people just liked him more than they like Kerry. I think the 2020 Dem might be in a similar position. We know Trump's base loves him to death. Are any of the Dems going to get similar support based on what they bring to the table? Or do they just expect to win because Trump is so awful? Like, Obama seemed pretty loved. Hillary? "Eh, well, I guess I'll vote for her. She's the democrat." And that was Hillary with all her resources and know-how. These 2020 Dems seem like second-stringers compared to her. 

On a sidebar, I've noticed over the past few months that you're really, really in polls. Nothing wrong with that. I wasn't on the board much around 2016 (and probably not on AET at all) so I have to ask: were you expecting Trump to win in 2016 based on the polls beginning around say late 2015? 

I knew Trump was going to win in 2016. The only person that can corroberate this is my father who I bet $20 that summer that Trump would win (calm down everyone, I still voted for Queen Hillary).  But how I came to that conclusion was based simply on a drive from Philly to Scranton, Scranton to Pittsburgh, and then back to Philly. I counted political signs on those drives. The final tally? 49 Donald Trump signs, 2 Hillary Clinton signs. I thought if rural Pennsylvania is all about Trump, why not rural Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, etc? 

Now I'm not trying to say that they should do away with polling and everyone should drive in a huge triangle around their state looking at signs. I just think between small sample sizes (isn't a typical presidential poll only 1,000 people?), people not being forthcoming with who they'll vote for (I contend there were a lot of Trump supporters in 2016 that wouldn't admit it because they didn't want to be made fun of for it), and the fact that most people look at national polls when really they should be focusing on like 9 states and few particular districts within them, widens the margin of error even larger than it's been deemed to be. 

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

tbergs said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

mrussel1 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

tbergs said:

RYME said:

2020 is going to be a great year.

Couldn't agree more. Impeached Trump will be voted out of office and face legal troubles the rest of his life until his health fully fails from living a horrible lifestyle and being a greedy shmuck who gladly duped 60 million plus people. 

That all sounds nice. But how I think it'll go down is Impeached Trump will not be voted out of office, he'll be re-elected as President in November, and nearly everyone here will complain about it for four more years.

Well that'll give us something to do at least. 

Well hopefully there's actual Pearl Jam stuff to talk about in 2020 so that Trump can be on the backburner. An album, a North American tour, something to celebrate the band's 30th anniversary....anything. 

As much as I love Pearl Jam, anything they do pales in comparison to the horrendous shit this asshole is able to do on a daily basis that will impact this country and the world for years to come.

I'm a pessisimist, but no way this guy gets the miracle slim wins he got in those flipped states in 2016. Do you think his support, has grown or even stayed the same? All of those "swing" voters that voted against Hillary just because they hated her won't have the same luxury of using that excuse, as lame as it was in the first place. Sure, lots of supporters hiding in the shadows, but no more than those that already came out and voted last time. He got his max voting results in 2016. No way he clears 60 million again.

I think he wins by a larger margin this time, like Bush in 2004. For all her faults, I think Hillary was a much better candidate than whoever the 2020 Dem is going to be.

Bush's pre Iraq war ceiling was 58%. Trump's is 43%. That explains why Bush had a chance of doing better in '04.

No shot in hell Trump builds his base anywhere close to that. He's lucky to keep it the same. 

Well the point I'm trying to make (but didn't actually articulate it) is about the opponent, not the incumbent. As bad as Bush seemed, I think a lot of people just liked him more than they like Kerry. I think the 2020 Dem might be in a similar position. We know Trump's base loves him to death. Are any of the Dems going to get similar support based on what they bring to the table? Or do they just expect to win because Trump is so awful? Like, Obama seemed pretty loved. Hillary? "Eh, well, I guess I'll vote for her. She's the democrat." And that was Hillary with all her resources and know-how. These 2020 Dems seem like second-stringers compared to her. 

On a sidebar, I've noticed over the past few months that you're really, really in polls. Nothing wrong with that. I wasn't on the board much around 2016 (and probably not on AET at all) so I have to ask: were you expecting Trump to win in 2016 based on the polls beginning around say late 2015? 

I knew Trump was going to win in 2016. The only person that can corroberate this is my father who I bet $20 that summer that Trump would win (calm down everyone, I still voted for Queen Hillary).  But how I came to that conclusion was based simply on a drive from Philly to Scranton, Scranton to Pittsburgh, and then back to Philly. I counted political signs on those drives. The final tally? 49 Donald Trump signs, 2 Hillary Clinton signs. I thought if rural Pennsylvania is all about Trump, why not rural Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, etc? 

Now I'm not trying to say that they should do away with polling and everyone should drive in a huge triangle around their state looking at signs. I just think between small sample sizes (isn't a typical presidential poll only 1,000 people?), people not being forthcoming with who they'll vote for (I contend there were a lot of Trump supporters in 2016 that wouldn't admit it because they didn't want to be made fun of for it), and the fact that most people look at national polls when really they should be focusing on like 9 states and few particular districts within them, widens the margin of error even larger than it's been deemed to be. 

Most polls you'd see were national polls and Clinton won the popular vote by about what was projected. I think I've read that it's tough to do state-by-state polling for sampling reasons. Or maybe cost? Either way, if you're really trying to divine the electoral college results, that's the data you'd want.

Go Beavers said:

pjl44 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

tbergs said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

mrussel1 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

tbergs said:

RYME said:

2020 is going to be a great year.

Couldn't agree more. Impeached Trump will be voted out of office and face legal troubles the rest of his life until his health fully fails from living a horrible lifestyle and being a greedy shmuck who gladly duped 60 million plus people. 

That all sounds nice. But how I think it'll go down is Impeached Trump will not be voted out of office, he'll be re-elected as President in November, and nearly everyone here will complain about it for four more years.

Well that'll give us something to do at least. 

Well hopefully there's actual Pearl Jam stuff to talk about in 2020 so that Trump can be on the backburner. An album, a North American tour, something to celebrate the band's 30th anniversary....anything. 

As much as I love Pearl Jam, anything they do pales in comparison to the horrendous shit this asshole is able to do on a daily basis that will impact this country and the world for years to come.

I'm a pessisimist, but no way this guy gets the miracle slim wins he got in those flipped states in 2016. Do you think his support, has grown or even stayed the same? All of those "swing" voters that voted against Hillary just because they hated her won't have the same luxury of using that excuse, as lame as it was in the first place. Sure, lots of supporters hiding in the shadows, but no more than those that already came out and voted last time. He got his max voting results in 2016. No way he clears 60 million again.

I think he wins by a larger margin this time, like Bush in 2004. For all her faults, I think Hillary was a much better candidate than whoever the 2020 Dem is going to be.

Bush's pre Iraq war ceiling was 58%. Trump's is 43%. That explains why Bush had a chance of doing better in '04.

No shot in hell Trump builds his base anywhere close to that. He's lucky to keep it the same. 

Well the point I'm trying to make (but didn't actually articulate it) is about the opponent, not the incumbent. As bad as Bush seemed, I think a lot of people just liked him more than they like Kerry. I think the 2020 Dem might be in a similar position. We know Trump's base loves him to death. Are any of the Dems going to get similar support based on what they bring to the table? Or do they just expect to win because Trump is so awful? Like, Obama seemed pretty loved. Hillary? "Eh, well, I guess I'll vote for her. She's the democrat." And that was Hillary with all her resources and know-how. These 2020 Dems seem like second-stringers compared to her. 

On a sidebar, I've noticed over the past few months that you're really, really in polls. Nothing wrong with that. I wasn't on the board much around 2016 (and probably not on AET at all) so I have to ask: were you expecting Trump to win in 2016 based on the polls beginning around say late 2015? 

I knew Trump was going to win in 2016. The only person that can corroberate this is my father who I bet $20 that summer that Trump would win (calm down everyone, I still voted for Queen Hillary).  But how I came to that conclusion was based simply on a drive from Philly to Scranton, Scranton to Pittsburgh, and then back to Philly. I counted political signs on those drives. The final tally? 49 Donald Trump signs, 2 Hillary Clinton signs. I thought if rural Pennsylvania is all about Trump, why not rural Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, etc? 

Now I'm not trying to say that they should do away with polling and everyone should drive in a huge triangle around their state looking at signs. I just think between small sample sizes (isn't a typical presidential poll only 1,000 people?), people not being forthcoming with who they'll vote for (I contend there were a lot of Trump supporters in 2016 that wouldn't admit it because they didn't want to be made fun of for it), and the fact that most people look at national polls when really they should be focusing on like 9 states and few particular districts within them, widens the margin of error even larger than it's been deemed to be. 

Most polls you'd see were national polls and Clinton won the popular vote by about what was projected. I think I've read that it's tough to do state-by-state polling for sampling reasons. Or maybe cost? Either way, if you're really trying to divine the electoral college results, that's the data you'd want.

The Juggler said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

tbergs said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

mrussel1 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

tbergs said:

RYME said:

2020 is going to be a great year.

Couldn't agree more. Impeached Trump will be voted out of office and face legal troubles the rest of his life until his health fully fails from living a horrible lifestyle and being a greedy shmuck who gladly duped 60 million plus people. 

That all sounds nice. But how I think it'll go down is Impeached Trump will not be voted out of office, he'll be re-elected as President in November, and nearly everyone here will complain about it for four more years.

Well that'll give us something to do at least. 

Well hopefully there's actual Pearl Jam stuff to talk about in 2020 so that Trump can be on the backburner. An album, a North American tour, something to celebrate the band's 30th anniversary....anything. 

As much as I love Pearl Jam, anything they do pales in comparison to the horrendous shit this asshole is able to do on a daily basis that will impact this country and the world for years to come.

I'm a pessisimist, but no way this guy gets the miracle slim wins he got in those flipped states in 2016. Do you think his support, has grown or even stayed the same? All of those "swing" voters that voted against Hillary just because they hated her won't have the same luxury of using that excuse, as lame as it was in the first place. Sure, lots of supporters hiding in the shadows, but no more than those that already came out and voted last time. He got his max voting results in 2016. No way he clears 60 million again.

I think he wins by a larger margin this time, like Bush in 2004. For all her faults, I think Hillary was a much better candidate than whoever the 2020 Dem is going to be.

Bush's pre Iraq war ceiling was 58%. Trump's is 43%. That explains why Bush had a chance of doing better in '04.

No shot in hell Trump builds his base anywhere close to that. He's lucky to keep it the same. 

Well the point I'm trying to make (but didn't actually articulate it) is about the opponent, not the incumbent. As bad as Bush seemed, I think a lot of people just liked him more than they like Kerry. I think the 2020 Dem might be in a similar position. We know Trump's base loves him to death. Are any of the Dems going to get similar support based on what they bring to the table? Or do they just expect to win because Trump is so awful? Like, Obama seemed pretty loved. Hillary? "Eh, well, I guess I'll vote for her. She's the democrat." And that was Hillary with all her resources and know-how. These 2020 Dems seem like second-stringers compared to her. 

On a sidebar, I've noticed over the past few months that you're really, really in polls. Nothing wrong with that. I wasn't on the board much around 2016 (and probably not on AET at all) so I have to ask: were you expecting Trump to win in 2016 based on the polls beginning around say late 2015? 

I knew Trump was going to win in 2016. The only person that can corroberate this is my father who I bet $20 that summer that Trump would win (calm down everyone, I still voted for Queen Hillary).  But how I came to that conclusion was based simply on a drive from Philly to Scranton, Scranton to Pittsburgh, and then back to Philly. I counted political signs on those drives. The final tally? 49 Donald Trump signs, 2 Hillary Clinton signs. I thought if rural Pennsylvania is all about Trump, why not rural Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, etc? 

Now I'm not trying to say that they should do away with polling and everyone should drive in a huge triangle around their state looking at signs. I just think between small sample sizes (isn't a typical presidential poll only 1,000 people?), people not being forthcoming with who they'll vote for (I contend there were a lot of Trump supporters in 2016 that wouldn't admit it because they didn't want to be made fun of for it), and the fact that most people look at national polls when really they should be focusing on like 9 states and few particular districts within them, widens the margin of error even larger than it's been deemed to be. 

I think Biden is way more likeable than Hillary Clinton is/was. I don't even think it's close, to be honest.

With Bush....he had that personality that even if you didn't like him or hated his policies he came across as a nice guy. Trump is anti that to most people other his ardent 30% super diehard base. There is about 10-13% of his base that does not like him at all, but voted for him because they hated Hillary. Some of these people voted for Obama. These are the people I think Trump is likely to lose not matter who the candidate is (well, hopefully its not Bernie or Warren--I wouldn't be so sure of that). But a perceived moderate like Biden can get those people back for sure.

I've always been interested in polls. I didn't think he would win but I knew there was a chance. I feel like a broken record but the polls were mostly accurate back then. She won the popular vote by a few million people and 2% or so......this was all factored into the polling. The thing that was not very accurate were the state specific polling in the few states that ended up deciding the election by the amount of people that can fit into a football stadium. I would assume more effort is being put in to make those more accurate this time around. 

And I think the approval rating is a great indicator of how he will do because it largely correlates with how he was tracking and how he actually ended up doing on election night. Low 40% range...historically low. He is the first president to not grow his base at all. He has not made an ounce of effort into growing his base. Bush worked his ass off to grow his base, especially Hispanic voters. So he had that ceiling of support close to 60% that was at least thinking of voting for him. Trump goes in with the disadvantage of an historically low ceiling and almost 60% of the country not thinking of voting for him. Couple that with a much more likeable candidate and the odds are low, in my opinion, of Trump winning again, barring any foreign shenanigans happening again. Of course that is always a wild card with him.

Yeah I agree Biden is way more likeable than Hillary, but I do fear his time has passed. And I also think he's someone that nobody will be excited for. He's like Hillary and Romney in that respect (boring). Obama, Sanders, and Trump somehow had people PUMPED over them in 2008 and 2016 respectively. So I guess that's what I'd like to see from Trump's 2020 opponent: real excitement for people to vote for them. Without that excitement, a lot of voters might not even bother voting. I don't have any 2016 stats to back this up, but I'd wager a guess that for every person like myself ("Well...I guess I HAVE to vote for Hillary so I will"), there were probably more that just didn't vote at all. 

Really, I think Biden should have ran in 2016 (I know his son died around that time, but still). He would have easily beaten Hillary and Trump I think. This year, I think he's the only one I think has a real chance with moderates and Trump-hating Republicans. I think if you're a Trump-hating Republican, and Biden is the Dem nominee, you're likely to vote for Biden over Trump. But I also think if you're a Trump-hating Republican, and Warren or Sanders is the Dem nominee, you're likely to not vote at all, or begrudgingly vote for Trump.

the ONLY way trump grows his base is if democrats stay home. 

voter enthusiasm for potential dem candidate is higher than i can remember. most dems are "vote blue no matter who".

dems will not stay home because we all want a chance to put our own little individual nail into this motherfucker's political coffin.

gimmesometruth27 said:

the ONLY way trump grows his base is if democrats stay home. 

voter enthusiasm for potential dem candidate is higher than i can remember. most dems are "vote blue no matter who".

dems will not stay home because we all want a chance to put our own little individual nail into this motherfucker's political coffin.

You might be whistling past the graveyard.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2020-front-runners-arent-as-well-liked-as-past-contenders/

Ledbetterman10 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

voter enthusiasm for potential dem candidate is higher than i can remember. 

I completely disagree. I think there's enthusiasm for the notion of no more Trump. But enthusiasm FOR these Dems as individuals? I don't see it at all.  Remember Obama in 2008? Or even Sanders' 2016 primary campaign. Those are some examples of enthusiasm for the actual individual candidate. 

I agree.  Given how divided we are and the electoral college, a Democrat needs to deltas people to the polls. OBAMA did that.  He was new, affable, a breath of fresh air.  There is nobody like that in the current field.  And every candidate fails a lot of leftist purity tests.  Hilary was more hated than, we’ll, anyone.  But I think they need an Obama.  Trump should win by roughly the same margin he did last time.  Maybe more because “the economy.”