Nate Silver

2»

Comments

  • Prince Of Dorkness
    Prince Of Dorkness Posts: 3,763
    _ wrote:
    I never heard of this guy until everyone started posting about him on FB the night before the election. But why would the media give him a hard time? Seems like he's about the only person whose perspective is worth listening to.

    Because he's a nerdy, bespectacled gay guy that the conservative press said was "effeminate" and that he was cherry picking polls and skewing results to boost the morale of democrats. Cuz if there's anything they hate more than a democrat, it's an effeminate one.

    Because it's illegal to ACTUALLY shoot the messenger, they decided to shit-talk him and rip him to pieces.

    But his book jumped 800% in sales yesterday, so I'm sure he's too busy sleeping on a big bed of money with a bunch of Ambercrombie greeters to care.
    I can't drive without Pearl Jam
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,036
    Prince Of Dorkness wrote:
    _ wrote:
    I never heard of this guy until everyone started posting about him on FB the night before the election. But why would the media give him a hard time? Seems like he's about the only person whose perspective is worth listening to.

    Because he's a nerdy, bespectacled gay guy that the conservative press said was "effeminate" and that he was cherry picking polls and skewing results to boost the morale of democrats. Cuz if there's anything they hate more than a democrat, it's an effeminate one.

    Because it's illegal to ACTUALLY shoot the messenger, they decided to shit-talk him and rip him to pieces.

    But his book jumped 800% in sales yesterday, so I'm sure he's too busy sleeping on a big bed of money with a bunch of Ambercrombie greeters to care.

    So, not that it makes an absolute ounce of a difference, but I had absolutely no clue that Nate Silver is gay until I read this and I have been reading him since the Baseball Prospectus days, being the baseball nerd that I am.
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,671
    Interesting "shoot the messenger"/ Nate Silver article:

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=13366%3Cbr

    Trying to shoot the messenger

    "Does this sound familiar? A quantitative prediction is inconvenient for some heavily invested folks. Legitimate questions about methodology morph quickly into accusations that the researchers have put their thumb on the scale and that they are simply making their awkward predictions to feather their own nest. Others loudly proclaim that the methodology could never work and imply that anyone who knows anything knows that -it’s simply common sense! Audit sites spring up to re-process the raw data and produce predictions more to the liking of their audience. People who have actually championed the methods being used, and so really should know better, indulge in some obvious wish-casting (i.e. forecasting what you would like to be true, despite the absence of any evidence to support it).

    Contrarian attacks on climate science, right?

    Actually no. This was assorted conservative punditry attacking Nate Silver (of the 538 blog) because his (Bayesian) projections for Tuesday’s election didn’t accord with what they wanted to hear. The leap from asking questions to cherry-picking, accusations of malfeasance and greed, audits, denial, and wish-casting was quite rapid, but it followed a very familiar pattern. People who value their personal attachments above objective knowledge seem to spend an inordinate amount of time finding reasons to dismiss the messenger when they don’t like the message.

    Fortunately for Nate, all it took was one day, and reality came crashing down on his critics entire imaginary world.

    For climate science, it will probably take a little longer…    "
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • Prince Of Dorkness
    Prince Of Dorkness Posts: 3,763
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    So, not that it makes an absolute ounce of a difference, but I had absolutely no clue that Nate Silver is gay until I read this and I have been reading him since the Baseball Prospectus days, being the baseball nerd that I am.

    He's now such a sensation, today I pitched a movie called "Polling The Electorate" that features a bespectacled nerdy pollster.

    Played by Jesse Jackman.


    OK... so.. maybe Jesse's a bit bigger. He still wears glasses.

    (you know that Jared Max is gay too, right? He's an ESPN sports caster. His radio show kicks ass.)
    I can't drive without Pearl Jam
  • Johnny Abruzzo
    Johnny Abruzzo Philly Posts: 12,434
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    So, not that it makes an absolute ounce of a difference, but I had absolutely no clue that Nate Silver is gay until I read this and I have been reading him since the Baseball Prospectus days, being the baseball nerd that I am.

    Yeah I also had no idea. Seems more nerdy/awkward than effeminate. But whatever.


    Funny thing about conservatives hating him is that when he is wrong, it's usually in their direction.

    His wrong state in 2008 was Indiana, which he picked R and went D.

    He was wrong on the North Dakota senate, which he picked R and went D. Jon Stewart blasted him on that one. :lol:
    Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila,  PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24; Pittsburgh 5/16/25; Pittsburgh 5/18/25

    Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
  • whygohome
    whygohome Posts: 2,305
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    being the baseball nerd that I am.

    And you're a Yankees fan?

    That sucks.
    ( :mrgreen: )
  • Johnny Abruzzo
    Johnny Abruzzo Philly Posts: 12,434
    Prince Of Dorkness wrote:
    He's now such a sensation, today I pitched a movie called "Polling The Electorate" that features a bespectacled nerdy pollster.

    Your shit creeps me out a little, but I guess somebody has to make those movies. That's a pretty funny idea. 8-)
    Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila,  PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24; Pittsburgh 5/16/25; Pittsburgh 5/18/25

    Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
  • Prince Of Dorkness
    Prince Of Dorkness Posts: 3,763
    Johnny Abruzzo wrote:
    That's a pretty funny idea. 8-)


    Yeah... I try to keep it as PG-13 as I can here. While I'm sorry if it "creeps you out," now you know how I feel watching every James Bond movie that wastes miles of film on women slinking around in bikinis and while James leers at them. Or when my well-meaning straight friends invite me to their bachelor parties and think it would be funny to get a woman to do a lap dance for me.

    I digress.

    Sadly, the ideas that are deemed "funny" aren't ever taken at the studio I work for. We don't do comedy. And I've got an exclusive contract so I can't take my funny ideas anywhere else and they either just die there on the table or I dash out quick script and hand it off to a friend who then turns around and makes a million bucks on it.

    Oh well.
    I can't drive without Pearl Jam
  • Johnny Abruzzo
    Johnny Abruzzo Philly Posts: 12,434
    Prince Of Dorkness wrote:
    Johnny Abruzzo wrote:
    That's a pretty funny idea. 8-)


    Yeah... I try to keep it as PG-13 as I can here. While I'm sorry if it "creeps you out," now you know how I feel watching every James Bond movie that wastes miles of film on women slinking around in bikinis and while James leers at them. Or when my well-meaning straight friends invite me to their bachelor parties and think it would be funny to get a woman to do a lap dance for me.

    I digress.

    Sadly, the ideas that are deemed "funny" aren't ever taken at the studio I work for. We don't do comedy. And I've got an exclusive contract so I can't take my funny ideas anywhere else and they either just die there on the table or I dash out quick script and hand it off to a friend who then turns around and makes a million bucks on it.

    Oh well.

    I see your point. The world would be a lot more boring if we all liked the same things.
    Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila,  PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24; Pittsburgh 5/16/25; Pittsburgh 5/18/25

    Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
  • _
    _ Posts: 6,657
    brianlux wrote:
    Interesting "shoot the messenger"/ Nate Silver article:

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=13366%3Cbr

    Trying to shoot the messenger

    "Does this sound familiar? A quantitative prediction is inconvenient for some heavily invested folks. Legitimate questions about methodology morph quickly into accusations that the researchers have put their thumb on the scale and that they are simply making their awkward predictions to feather their own nest. Others loudly proclaim that the methodology could never work and imply that anyone who knows anything knows that -it’s simply common sense! Audit sites spring up to re-process the raw data and produce predictions more to the liking of their audience. People who have actually championed the methods being used, and so really should know better, indulge in some obvious wish-casting (i.e. forecasting what you would like to be true, despite the absence of any evidence to support it).

    Contrarian attacks on climate science, right?

    Actually no. This was assorted conservative punditry attacking Nate Silver (of the 538 blog) because his (Bayesian) projections for Tuesday’s election didn’t accord with what they wanted to hear. The leap from asking questions to cherry-picking, accusations of malfeasance and greed, audits, denial, and wish-casting was quite rapid, but it followed a very familiar pattern. People who value their personal attachments above objective knowledge seem to spend an inordinate amount of time finding reasons to dismiss the messenger when they don’t like the message.

    Fortunately for Nate, all it took was one day, and reality came crashing down on his critics entire imaginary world.

    For climate science, it will probably take a little longer…    "

    Excellent article. I guess I must've had temporary amnesia when I asked my the media would villify him and forgotten that "people.. value their personal attachments above objective knowledge". Not sure how I was able to forget that.

Categories