Nate Silver

Cliffy6745
Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,036
edited November 2012 in A Moving Train
This will probably get no responses, but Nate Silver has been getting absolutely butchered by the media. In 2008 he picked 49 of 50 states correctly and has been trashed over and over, so you know what, he just went out and picked 50 out of 50.
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  • Prince Of Dorkness
    Prince Of Dorkness Posts: 3,763
    Yeah and with some states that everyone was saying were out of reach.
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  • snow_board_rider
    snow_board_rider Posts: 943
    he'll be the most sought after interview on all of the shows now.
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  • satansbed
    satansbed Posts: 2,139
    nate silver is awesome, i think i beat him by one in the senate though, he had montana going against tester, i had it going for him, thats our only differences.

    on a side note, EVERYONE go buy his book now, will teach you alot about stats, predictions, and betting.... 3 of my favourite things
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,671
    satansbed wrote:
    nate silver is awesome, i think i beat him by one in the senate though, he had montana going against tester, i had it going for him, thats our only differences.

    on a side note, EVERYONE go buy his book now, will teach you alot about stats, predictions, and betting.... 3 of my favourite things

    Haven't heard yet- did Tester loose? Is that race decided?
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  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,405
    brianlux wrote:
    satansbed wrote:
    nate silver is awesome, i think i beat him by one in the senate though, he had montana going against tester, i had it going for him, thats our only differences.

    on a side note, EVERYONE go buy his book now, will teach you alot about stats, predictions, and betting.... 3 of my favourite things

    Haven't heard yet- did Tester loose? Is that race decided?
    tester is still too close to call per fox and msnbc.
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  • satansbed
    satansbed Posts: 2,139
    brianlux wrote:
    satansbed wrote:
    nate silver is awesome, i think i beat him by one in the senate though, he had montana going against tester, i had it going for him, thats our only differences.

    on a side note, EVERYONE go buy his book now, will teach you alot about stats, predictions, and betting.... 3 of my favourite things

    Haven't heard yet- did Tester loose? Is that race decided?

    its not decided but tester is ahead as of now, silvers model had it going against him, but in fairness montana was the only state that his model could have gone against him... his model had the state fundementals at r+8, which balanced out testers lead in the opinion polls, but his model couldn't take into fact the odd local race that was going on in montana and tester who lost three fingers in a farm accident is possibly the most Montanan person in a race that was all about who was the most Montanan.

    tester is also the on balance is the most right wing democrat, which is understandable coming from the state he comes from, hes possibly the only democrat who could ever get elected in montana
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,671
    satansbed wrote:
    brianlux wrote:
    satansbed wrote:
    nate silver is awesome, i think i beat him by one in the senate though, he had montana going against tester, i had it going for him, thats our only differences.

    on a side note, EVERYONE go buy his book now, will teach you alot about stats, predictions, and betting.... 3 of my favourite things

    Haven't heard yet- did Tester loose? Is that race decided?

    its not decided but tester is ahead as of now, silvers model had it going against him, but in fairness montana was the only state that his model could have gone against him... his model had the state fundementals at r+8, which balanced out testers lead in the opinion polls, but his model couldn't take into fact the odd local race that was going on in montana and tester who lost three fingers in a farm accident is possibly the most Montanan person.

    tester is also the on balance is the most right wing democrat, which is understandable coming from the state he comes from, hes possibly the only democrat who could ever get elected in montana

    I've been reading a lot about Montana over the last month and yes, if you're at all progressive you still need a little mud on your shoes and a good understanding of the history and people.
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • dignin
    dignin Posts: 9,478
    I'm not a religious man, but I followed Nate Silvers blog like a religion. Amen he was right.
  • dasvidana
    dasvidana Grand Junction CO Posts: 1,356
    dignin wrote:
    I'm not a religious man, but I followed Nate Silvers blog like a religion. Amen he was right.
    +1
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  • Johnny Abruzzo
    Johnny Abruzzo Philly Posts: 12,434
    dignin wrote:
    I'm not a religious man, but I followed Nate Silvers blog like a religion. Amen he was right.

    Yep, me too.


    Scarborough's attack on Silver was absurd and unfounded.

    Funny how reason and sound analysis can beat out "gut feelings."

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  • RFTC
    RFTC Posts: 723
    dignin wrote:
    I'm not a religious man, but I followed Nate Silvers blog like a religion. Amen he was right.

    538 was my crack addiction for the last 40+ days, i am going through withdrawals this morning.
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  • polaris_x
    polaris_x Posts: 13,559
    this excerpt from another story on thestar.com

    The media personality with perhaps the most on the line was Nate Silver of The New York Times, whose FiveThirtyEight blog was sought out by 20 per cent of the people who visited the newspaper’s website on Monday. He has used statistical data throughout the campaign to predict an Obama victory and by Tuesday, had forecast a 90.9 per cent chance that Obama would win.

    After Obama’s victory became clear, Gavin Purcell, producer of “Late Night with Jimmy Fallon,” tweeted that “Nate Silver is the only white male winning tonight.”

    CNN’s Piers Morgan tweeted Silver an invitation to appear on his show Wednesday.
  • Go Beavers
    Go Beavers Posts: 9,618
    I think he's on either Cobert or Stewart tonight.
  • jimed14
    jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    Honestly, it reminded me of the old baseball purists attacking the folks who believed in the theories of Bill James.

    Statistics, when not manipulated with predetermined bias, are powerful.
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  • _
    _ Posts: 6,657
    I never heard of this guy until everyone started posting about him on FB the night before the election. But why would the media give him a hard time? Seems like he's about the only person whose perspective is worth listening to.
  • whygohome
    whygohome Posts: 2,305
    I guessed Romney would take it with 279. Silver said Obama with 313.

    I think I should stop making predictions....or I should stop being such a pessimist.

    Four more years....woot!
  • kenny olav
    kenny olav Posts: 3,319
    Predictions are a super nerdy thing to do, but here's what I predicted on Nov 4:

    https://twitter.com/kennyolav/status/265155705781227521
  • kenny olav
    kenny olav Posts: 3,319
    btw, I hadn't known of Nate Silver's prediction until the day after the election.
  • whygohome
    whygohome Posts: 2,305
    kenny olav wrote:
    Predictions are a super nerdy thing to do, but here's what I predicted on Nov 4:

    https://twitter.com/kennyolav/status/265155705781227521

    Impressive, soothsayer.

    Can you tell me the date of my death?
  • kenny olav
    kenny olav Posts: 3,319
    whygohome wrote:
    kenny olav wrote:
    Predictions are a super nerdy thing to do, but here's what I predicted on Nov 4:

    https://twitter.com/kennyolav/status/265155705781227521

    Impressive, soothsayer.

    Can you tell me the date of my death?

    That I cannot do, but may you live long and prosper.

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