Russia Discloses the U.S. Ultimatum to Iran...

Jason P wrote:

inlet13 wrote:

If this 'last chance' is wasted an attack will happen in months as diplomats noted that the probability of an Israel/US attack on Iran is now a specific 'when' instead of an indefinite 'if'. The sentiment is best summarized by a quote from inside the meeting "The invasion will happen before year’s end.

There is little logic to this. No way Obama is attacking during an election year. Also, do you really think the U.S. is going to invade Iran? Even if Israel did a covert strike in Iran and Iran responded by attacking U.S. interests, I could see the U.S. responding by attacking Iran assets that pose threat, but I don't see them rolling tanks into Tehran which is strategically tucked away in the northern part of the country.

Israel doesn't have the capability to invade Iran. Perhaps a covert strike, but they have built their Army primarily to defend nearby territory. They don't have the capability to stage a large-scale invasion in Iran, especially considering Tel Aviv is over 1,000 miles from Tehran as the crow flies.

I don't think you're right on "no way" Obama's attacking during an election year. If the economy turns South, this could be a diversion tactic. But, I don't even want to go there. I just think it's a possibility, and to say it's not is naive. I do agree though, most likely this would take place after early Nov. But, I saw the whole Netanyahu visit as a sign this is happening.... soon.

Personally, if the US gets involved or if Israel goes alone, I agree the original intention would be covert strikes. I don't see anyone "invading" UNLESS things spiral out of control. Which, in my opinion, will probably happen if they go forward. The Iranians probably learned from previous bombings by Israel. They planned for it. So, it won't be that easy, and there will be retaliation, which will get ugly.

There's only so much bombing in a region that will seem acceptable even to our allies. The Arab Spring can quickly turn into Arab winter and those sympathetic to the U.S. will quickly turn once we start bombing a fourth country in the middle east in 10 years. This has disaster scenario written all over it.

I sincerely hope the U.S. gets out of there. Our very presence engaging in the topic (see post #1) emboldens Israel, and their movement on the issue (or our own) could drag us further into a endless/needless war.

Jason P wrote:

polaris_x wrote:

uhhh ... unless they have access to bases in neighbouring countries ... let's see here ... which countries border iran!? ... iraq, afghanistan ... phew ... good thing the US set up permanent military bases over there for the last decade ...

The U.S. pulled out of Iraq. A invasion into Iran would take a large build-up in Iraq that would take some significant time and take away any surprise advantage. Iran would have time to dig-in and the political firestorm would be brutal. And the semi-mountainous terrain of western Iran would make a troop surge very difficult.

Now for Afghanistan. Look at the topography of Afghanistan. It's tough enough to keep a supply chain moving through Pakistan to keep operations moving forward in the eastern regions of Afghanistan. And Tel Aviv is as close to Tehran as Kabul is. That is a long drive through enemy and insurgent territory. And just like an attack from Iraq, the terrain and infrastructure would pose significant challenges.

In order for a full-scale invasion to succeed quickly and without high casualties, the invaders would have to come in from the Caspian Sea in the north. And the Caspian Sea is bordered by Russian influenced countries.

My point is that it's not like Obama can push a button and we are suddenly in Iran. An invasion build-up would take a lot of time and scrutiny, both in the media and in congress. A resolution of war would need to be passed. Is a war-weary nation with a democratic president going to be able to pull that off an unprovoked invasion? (that's rhetorical, BTW)

One could argue, perhaps naively, that the Obama admin pulled out of Iraq with full knowledge that they'd need those resources for Iran. The plans for this, I believe, for an Iran invasion already drawn up. Not trying to say attack or invasion is definitive... trying to imply it's a scenario planning and the military is prepared for that scenario, amongst others.

Do you think Ed will play this in response?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-R1nEIImAA

Either way... I hope he doesn't. That song's terrible.

Jason P wrote:

inlet13 wrote:

One could argue, perhaps naively, that the Obama admin pulled out of Iraq with full knowledge that they'd need those resources for Iran. The plans for this, I believe, for an Iran invasion already drawn up. Not trying to say attack or invasion is definitive... trying to imply it's a scenario planning and the military is prepared for that scenario, amongst others.

I agree that several invasion plans have most likely been drawn up. I don't think the U.S. will get caught with their pants down. Most likely, if the crap really hits the fan, the biggest prize would be securing the SE portion of the country to preserve the Straights.

That would be my strategy if attacked by Iran and forced into a war. If I was ruthless about it, after securing the SE coastal boundaries, I would annex an 80 mile strip from the coastline in, including a 40 mile-wide demilitarized zone. I would force every Iranian citizen to relocate inland outside this zone. I would control the straights and severally choke-off the rest of Iran. I would have complete control without the fear of insurgencies, culture, or local politics. A build-up of defense along the demilitarized zone would prevent any attempt by Iran to take the land back. Slowly over the next several years, Iran would be weakened and crippled by my stranglehold, only relying on Russia to take there oil at Russian discount. Within 5 years, Iran would no longer be a threat.

I'd also dress like General Zod while monitoring the troops from an air-chariot like Serpentor used to have. :twisted: No way the U.S. has the balls to pull this off.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUORL-bvwA0