Thank you PJ! (didn't win lotto but played requested Smile)

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Comments

  • DS1119
    DS1119 Posts: 33,497
    shawnb199 wrote:
    Also in this scenario, if the same 2000 10C members got tickets for back to back shows, the odds that at least one member would win the lottery for both nights are nearly 72%.

    .


    I just can't wrap my head around this??
  • shawnb199
    shawnb199 Posts: 135
    81 wrote:
    shawnb199 wrote:
    there is a 72% change that a single member wins lotto tickets on back to back nights.....not sure i buy into that math
    Not sure you're reading it correctly. It's a 72% chance that at least one member does, not that any given member does.

    It's pretty simple, actually. Take the 50 people who win on night 1. For there to be no repeats, every single one of them has to lose on night 2.

    The odds of losing are 39/40.

    The odds of all 50 of them losing are (39/40) ^ 50

    If you run that math, you get about 28%, which means there's only a 28% chance that all 50 of them lose on night 2. Conversely, there's a 72% chance that one or more are repeat winners.

    ETA: For any statisticians reading, I'm slightly simplifying. Haven't figured out yet whether there's any impact from considering replacement, but I'm certain that it doesn't have any meaningful impact on the point of the exercise.
  • aNiMaL
    aNiMaL Posts: 7,117
    PillowPants wrote:
    wow... just was curious

    and only wanted 1 answer

    not 3 non answers?
    :lol::lol::lol:

    I agree though, winners names should not be removed from winning to any other show of the tour. I am allowed to win the state and national lotteries as many times as I can. This should be no different.
  • KingJeremyD
    KingJeremyD Posts: 2,313
    Lone Drawn Meteor wrote:
    The answer is even simpler than that:
    Have any of you actually asked the 10C how they do it?

    The answer I got was quite satisfactory…


    So, what was the answer the 10c gave you?.....I will take a guess.....The 1st & 2nd & 9th row & 10th rows are all randomly drawn winners.....If this what the 10c stated?....Do you really believe that it happens all the time?

    Jeremy
  • KingJeremyD
    KingJeremyD Posts: 2,313
    aNiMaL wrote:
    PillowPants wrote:
    wow... just was curious

    and only wanted 1 answer

    not 3 non answers?
    :lol::lol::lol:

    I agree though, winners names should not be removed from winning to any other show of the tour. I am allowed to win the state and national lotteries as many times as I can. This should be no different.


    I don't think the persons name should be taken out of the drawing...Just cross their name off for that row that already have won once on that tour...

    Jeremy
  • NumberTenOx
    NumberTenOx Posts: 94
    shawnb199 wrote:
    Here's a brief statistics lesson:

    .....

    There may be VIP stuff going on. There may be unscrupulous people working in the venues' ticket offices who manage to do shady things. None of that HAS to be true for people to have the types of anecdotes about not winning, or multiple winners, that they've raised on this thread. All we can do is trust that the band and 10C are good people who want nothing more than to ensure a great show and a great experience for every fan.

    Awesome analysis!
  • Slap upside the head
    Slap upside the head Posts: 904
    DS1119 wrote:
    Slap upside the head wrote:
    Now this is funny because while I would have surmised that most of the poor shmucks here would
    have taken my claim seriously, you of all people Santos would have just laughed it off instead
    of stating the obvious.

    I'm just a poor shmuck but I love watching Santos lay the smack down... :lol::lol::lol:

    tumblr_lliwab5Azd1qgh1leo1_500.gif

    Well then I guess you're an even bigger shmuck than I thought because that's about
    a poor attempt at a "smackdown" as they come.

    Do you understand the concept that my claim was so preposterous that only an idiot
    would think it were true?
  • Tboz51
    Tboz51 Posts: 2,808
    DS1119 wrote:
    shawnb199 wrote:
    Also in this scenario, if the same 2000 10C members got tickets for back to back shows, the odds that at least one member would win the lottery for both nights are nearly 72%.

    .


    I just can't wrap my head around this??

    Maybe you forgot to carry the one?
    "Honesty will always be construed as negative to a dumbass"
    :-)
  • RedMosquito22
    RedMosquito22 Posts: 8,158
    I've already accepted the fact that I will never win. It takes all the worry away.
    Member 164xxx

    8/15/92, 9/28/96, 8/28/98, 8/29/98, 9/18/98, 8/3/00, 8/9/00, 8/10/00, 8/23/00, 8/25/00, 9/1/00, 9/2/00, 4/28/03, 6/18/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 10/1/04, 10/3/05, 6/19/08, 10/27/09, 10/31/09, 5/21/10, 9/3/11, 9/4/11, 10/21/13

    More to Come....
  • RedMosquito22
    RedMosquito22 Posts: 8,158
    RedMosquito22 wrote:
    51.jpg




    :lol::lol::lol: Just kidding
    Member 164xxx

    8/15/92, 9/28/96, 8/28/98, 8/29/98, 9/18/98, 8/3/00, 8/9/00, 8/10/00, 8/23/00, 8/25/00, 9/1/00, 9/2/00, 4/28/03, 6/18/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 10/1/04, 10/3/05, 6/19/08, 10/27/09, 10/31/09, 5/21/10, 9/3/11, 9/4/11, 10/21/13

    More to Come....
  • 81
    81 Needing a ride to Forest Hills and a ounce of weed. Please inquire within. Thanks. Or not. Posts: 58,276
    RedMosquito22 wrote:
    I've already accepted the fact that I will never win. It takes all the worry away.


    there really is no reason to fret....i just go in expecting the worse...if i get upgraded...great...if not...great. i'm still going to have a good time regardless of being lotto row (alpine), 3rd row (columbus), or 3rd row from the back wall in the upper deck (philly 4).

    even at bonnaroo, we didn't make a huge effort to get up front. i think we started by the soundboard and moved down a little from there.

    just get me in and put somebody cool beside me.
    81 is now off the air

    Off_Air.jpg
  • faceintheclouds
    faceintheclouds Posts: 1,739
    81 wrote:
    RedMosquito22 wrote:
    I've already accepted the fact that I will never win. It takes all the worry away.


    there really is no reason to fret....i just go in expecting the worse...if i get upgraded...great...if not...great. i'm still going to have a good time regardless of being lotto row (alpine), 3rd row (columbus), or 3rd row from the back wall in the upper deck (philly 4).

    even at bonnaroo, we didn't make a huge effort to get up front. i think we started by the soundboard and moved down a little from there.

    just get me in and put somebody cool beside me.
    I'm the coolest person you could ever be beside.
    Just, not enough.
    I need more.
    Nothing seems to satisfy.
    I said, I dont want it.
    I just need it.
    To breathe, to feel, to know Im alive.
  • PillowPants
    PillowPants Posts: 4,877
    shawnb199 wrote:
    81 wrote:
    shawnb199 wrote:
    there is a 72% change that a single member wins lotto tickets on back to back nights.....not sure i buy into that math
    Not sure you're reading it correctly. It's a 72% chance that at least one member does, not that any given member does.

    It's pretty simple, actually. Take the 50 people who win on night 1. For there to be no repeats, every single one of them has to lose on night 2.

    The odds of losing are 39/40.

    The odds of all 50 of them losing are (39/40) ^ 50

    If you run that math, you get about 28%, which means there's only a 28% chance that all 50 of them lose on night 2. Conversely, there's a 72% chance that one or more are repeat winners.

    ETA: For any statisticians reading, I'm slightly simplifying. Haven't figured out yet whether there's any impact from considering replacement, but I'm certain that it doesn't have any meaningful impact on the point of the exercise.

    math is fun! i think there's a 100% chance no one knows the odds ... NO ONE


    but i am curious what are the chances we got through to the kid who thinks the saying is goody tissues?
  • DS1119
    DS1119 Posts: 33,497
    Slap upside the head wrote:
    Well then I guess you're an even bigger shmuck than I thought because that's about
    a poor attempt at a "smackdown" as they come.

    Do you understand the concept that my claim was so preposterous that only an idiot
    would think it were true?


    Now you resort to name calling. Awesome!! :thumbup:
  • 81
    81 Needing a ride to Forest Hills and a ounce of weed. Please inquire within. Thanks. Or not. Posts: 58,276
    faceintheclouds wrote:
    81 wrote:
    RedMosquito22 wrote:
    I've already accepted the fact that I will never win. It takes all the worry away.


    there really is no reason to fret....i just go in expecting the worse...if i get upgraded...great...if not...great. i'm still going to have a good time regardless of being lotto row (alpine), 3rd row (columbus), or 3rd row from the back wall in the upper deck (philly 4).

    even at bonnaroo, we didn't make a huge effort to get up front. i think we started by the soundboard and moved down a little from there.

    just get me in and put somebody cool beside me.
    I'm the coolest person you could ever be beside.


    i know....i learned that in the brief time we spent at the tailgate.....you are a good egg...not matter they say.
    81 is now off the air

    Off_Air.jpg
  • dislocated
    dislocated Posts: 599
    Appreantly who know exactly this was posted toward to..

    Jeremy
  • RedMosquito22
    RedMosquito22 Posts: 8,158
    These math numbers make no sense at all because not everyone in row 1, 2, 9 & 10 are lottery winners from the 10 Club. So assuming you can figure out a mathematical equation without knowing how many seats are in those lottery rows is foolish.

    Without knowing how many winners there are per night and how many actual seats there are each night, no mathematical equation will work.
    Member 164xxx

    8/15/92, 9/28/96, 8/28/98, 8/29/98, 9/18/98, 8/3/00, 8/9/00, 8/10/00, 8/23/00, 8/25/00, 9/1/00, 9/2/00, 4/28/03, 6/18/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 10/1/04, 10/3/05, 6/19/08, 10/27/09, 10/31/09, 5/21/10, 9/3/11, 9/4/11, 10/21/13

    More to Come....
  • 81
    81 Needing a ride to Forest Hills and a ounce of weed. Please inquire within. Thanks. Or not. Posts: 58,276
    RedMosquito22 wrote:
    These math numbers make no sense at all because not everyone in row 1, 2, 9 & 10 are lottery winners from the 10 Club. So assuming you can figure out a mathematical equation without knowing how many seats are in those lottery rows is foolish.

    Without knowing how many winners there are per night and how many actual seats there are each night, no mathematical equation will work.

    it's called an assumption....when you don't have facts, you make assumptions based on the information that you have.....
    81 is now off the air

    Off_Air.jpg
  • RedMosquito22
    RedMosquito22 Posts: 8,158
    Never ASS U ME

    :lol::lol:
    Member 164xxx

    8/15/92, 9/28/96, 8/28/98, 8/29/98, 9/18/98, 8/3/00, 8/9/00, 8/10/00, 8/23/00, 8/25/00, 9/1/00, 9/2/00, 4/28/03, 6/18/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 10/1/04, 10/3/05, 6/19/08, 10/27/09, 10/31/09, 5/21/10, 9/3/11, 9/4/11, 10/21/13

    More to Come....
  • 81
    81 Needing a ride to Forest Hills and a ounce of weed. Please inquire within. Thanks. Or not. Posts: 58,276
    than take an educated guess.....if you are scared of being an ass....although i know you are not. :P
    81 is now off the air

    Off_Air.jpg

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