MLB 2025 Season

Cliffy6745 wrote:

This is great. On Werth:

“It makes some of our contracts look pretty good,” Sandy Alderson

Haha. I love reading the analysis/comments when a team makes a boneheaded move like this werth contract (except when ruben amaro jr is the butt of the jokes -- see howard, ibanez, polanco deals).

here's keith law's take...funny stuff


Jayson Werth's deal looks like panic move
December, 6, 2010Dec 67:00AM ETEmail Print Comments38 By Keith LawGiving a 32-year-old position player who has qualified for the batting title exactly twice in his major league career a guaranteed seven-year deal for over $100 million isn't just a bad move.



Getty Images
Two good years wasn't enough to justify seven more well-paid ones.

It's irresponsible.



Jayson Werth has been, for two years, an All-Star-caliber player -- one of the top 25 to 30 players in the National League when you consider offense, position, baserunning and defense -- and he was highly coveted in the free-agent market this offseason. He hits for power, works the count well and gets on base, plays good right-field defense with an above-average arm and adds value with smart baserunning.



However, he's a massive risk for a deal anywhere close to this length, given his age, injury history and the boost he received over the past two years from his home park in Philadelphia -- not to mention the combination fluke of a contract year in 2010 and a reverse platoon split he's not likely to maintain.



Corner players at age 32 are most likely at the beginning of their decline phases even if they don't have Werth's tenure on the disabled list; the Nationals appear to have bought themselves all of Werth's decline phase with an option on his post-decline phase (sometimes known as "release waivers") should it arrive a little earlier. There are no guarantees when it comes to player health, but I like playing the odds, and a player who's been hurt as often as Werth has and who has missed as much time as Werth has is likely to get hurt and miss time as he approaches the age when even normally healthy players tend to get hurt and miss time. Predicting health and performance for any player six or seven years out is difficult, but the indicators on Werth all say that you don't want to lock him up for that many years into his late 30s.

A player who's been hurt as often as Werth has and who has missed as much time as Werth has is likely to get hurt and miss time as he approaches the age when even normally healthy players tend to get hurt and miss time.

The odd thing is that the Nationals actually received solid production from right field in 2010, particularly from the two players, Roger Bernadina and Michael Morse, who played it most often. Neither player was likely to repeat his 2010 performance, however, and it made sense for the Nationals to look to upgrade the position. This price is excessive, and the fact that it matches two of the worst and most ill-conceived contracts handed out in the past twenty years -- Barry Zito's and Vernon Wells' -- is a harbinger for the Nationals' future with Werth. They'll be lucky if they reach 2015 without looking for an escape hatch.

My guess? Washington ownership, wildly unpopular in the city, panicked when they looked at 2011 without Stephen Strasburg or any hope of 80 wins, so they told GM Mike Rizzo to go get a player (or two or three) he really liked in the free-agent market, whatever the cost. There's no other logical explanation for outbidding one's opponents by that much in years and dollars.

The 'overpay' argument

You may hear that the Nationals "had to overpay" for Werth to get him to come to a team that hasn't been a winner. This is complete nonsense, perpetrated by agents to get more for their clients and by team executives to justify bad financial decisions. Free agents go to the highest bidder; if a losing team wants to sign a free agent, they simply have to offer more (factoring in taxes) than any other team is offering. Players like taking the most money. Agents encourage players to take the most money because it maximizes their commissions. The union encourages players to take the most money because it tends to pull up other players' salaries.

The reason losing teams often miss out on premium free agents is that they don't bid enough, because their current revenue streams don't justify higher bids, or because they are not close enough to contention to merit increasing a bid in the hopes of boosting revenues for the coming year. Very, very few take pay cuts to go to contenders or major markets -- and besides, the last time I checked, Washington, D.C. was the ninth-largest media market in the United States, according to Arbitron, so let's stop pretending that the Nationals play in Podunk even if ownership sometimes acts like they do. Every offseason, we hear some losing team say they "had to overpay" to sign a free agent. We rarely hear some winning team come to the podium and say they got themselves a bargain because a top-tier free agent signed with them for 20 percent less than anyone else offered.

And it's worth noting that if you as a GM or owner feel the market is forcing you to "overpay" for a free agent because your team isn't good, maybe you should improve your team first through the draft (where, I should point out, the Nationals spent money and added a lot of talent in 2010) and wait for that supposed free-agent premium to disappear. That is, if free agents don't want to come to your team because your team stinks, the first solution is to make your team better. Signing one premium free agent isn't the way to do it, because even if Werth matches what he did in 2010 -- away from Citizens Bank Park and no longer in a contract year -- by himself he won't turn the Nationals into more than a 74-win team.

The Fixer wrote:

polaris_x wrote:

i like what anthopolous is doing here in toronto ... he's trading for young guys or guys with a reasonable contract ... doesn't mind getting guys that are going to be impending FA because he can use the compensatory draft picks ...

i like this marcum for lawrie deal if it goes thru ...

I gotta disagree. why trade marcum? pitching is what wins...especially in that division. The only way this deal makes sense for the jays is there are truth to the rumors that they are making a push for greinke

starting pitchers with marcum's stuff don't grow on trees

EDIT: another thing is where do they plan on putting lawrie? they already have their MI spots occupied by hill and escobar. I liked the escobar trade a lot for the jays...the marcum move, not so much

Jays are going after Greinke. No doubt about it.

The Fixer wrote:

an ERA in the mid 3's in the AL east is pretty fucking good. seriously, how many pitchers pulled that off last year??

lawrie is apparently a butcher in the field too from what I've read in baseball america and other places

according to the link below ... about 14 pitchers ... yeah, his numbers are gonna be a bit high pitching in the AL East and the skydome (rogers centre) is fairly hitter friendly ... but i still think he's hit his ceiling ... and it's a good sell-high ...

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/stats/2010?posi ... &league=AL

to be honest ... i don't know much about lawrie but i've like every move anthopolous has made in the year or so he's taken the reins ...

The Fixer wrote:

polaris_x wrote:

The Fixer wrote:

an ERA in the mid 3's in the AL east is pretty fucking good. seriously, how many pitchers pulled that off last year??

lawrie is apparently a butcher in the field too from what I've read in baseball america and other places

according to the link below ... about 14 pitchers ... yeah, his numbers are gonna be a bit high pitching in the AL East and the skydome (rogers centre) is fairly hitter friendly ... but i still think he's hit his ceiling ... and it's a good sell-high ...

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/stats/2010?posi ... &league=AL

to be honest ... i don't know much about lawrie but i've like every move anthopolous has made in the year or so he's taken the reins ...

I think A.A. has done a good job there too. Looks like we disagree on his last trade, but at least he has a method to his madness. The O's and Jays both look like they should be improved this season. That division is ridiculous

EDIT: per your link I only counted 8 starting pitchers in the AL East that had ERAs under 4 (marcum was one of them).

People are already starting to say the AL East in 2011 could be one of the best divisions ever. Imagine if Greinke lands in Toronto, Lee lands in NY and Boston gets another bat. Fuck!!!!

The Fixer wrote:

I think A.A. has done a good job there too. Looks like we disagree on his last trade, but at least he has a method to his madness. The O's and Jays both look like they should be improved this season. That division is ridiculous

EDIT: per your link I only counted 8 starting pitchers in the AL East that had ERAs under 4 (marcum was one of them).

sorry ... i thought you meant the AL ...

i like his strategy of stockpiling draft picks, building up the farm system and not burdening ourselves with anymore brutal contracts (v-dub) ... i'm glad we aren't chasing after the marquee free agents and paying these ridiculous salaries ...

The Fixer wrote:

Reynolds to baltimore. Will be interesting to see if they land konerko.

So many strikeouts.

Cliffy6745 wrote:

Boston going after Willingham.

I'm not a reynolds fan either. Who played 3B for them last year, mora? gotta figure reynolds is an upgrade.

I want the phils to go after willingham. He'd be perfect for them

The Fixer wrote:

Cliffy6745 wrote:

Boston going after Willingham.

I'm not a reynolds fan either. Who played 3B for them last year, mora? gotta figure reynolds is an upgrade.

I want the phils to go after willingham. He'd be perfect for them

Yeah, definitely an upgrade and definitely brings a bit of pop just does not scare me with 200+ k's every year.

Yeah,I hear you. A lot of teams are going to be interested in him.

Heyman is saying the Adrian Gonzalez extension is going to be 7 years, $154. Ryan Howard......

Cliffy6745 wrote:

Heyman is saying the Adrian Gonzalez extension is going to be 7 years, $154. Ryan Howard......

Nah...Gonzalez does much more than howard. He is great in the field, and he hits for both average and power. His numbers will be sick playing 81 a year in fenway (9 at yankee stadium won't hurt either).

Howard only hits HRs. period. when he isn't doing that he's a detriment. luckily he's only locked up for 6 more years. sigh

The Fixer wrote:

Cliffy6745 wrote:

Heyman is saying the Adrian Gonzalez extension is going to be 7 years, $154. Ryan Howard......

Nah...Gonzalez does much more than howard. He is great in the field, and he hits for both average and power. His numbers will be sick playing 81 a year in fenway (9 at yankee stadium won't hurt either).

Howard only hits HRs. period. when he isn't doing that he's a detriment. luckily he's only locked up for 6 more years. sigh

I agree, I was just pointing out that a younger, better player at the same position will be making less annually