Doing the math on the random seating odds...

JP2026766
JP2026766 Posts: 1,125
edited March 2008 in The Porch
So, lets say for shows at the Garden for instance. 10c gets 10% of the seats...roughly 2,000 seats. Which means, they sell 1000 pairs to us members. A row of seats is usually 44, 45 seats. So, that ends up to around 190 seats in rows 1-2, 9-10. 190 seats in those rows translates to 95 10c members? Which means your odds of getting in the seats are approximately 9.5% that you will get in one of those four rows...right?

Hell I suck at math so I don't really know. Of course, this is all based off of the TM 10% rule. But still, 9.5% is not terrible odds to be in one of those 4 rows. Plus, if you are going to multiple shows, your odds increase that much more.

Am I making any sense? I sure hope so. :)

Mansfield II '08

EV Solo Shows:

NYC I
NJPAC

I. LOVE. YIELD.
Post edited by Unknown User on

Comments

  • JP2026766
    JP2026766 Posts: 1,125
    I guess I'm crazy...?

    Mansfield II '08

    EV Solo Shows:

    NYC I
    NJPAC

    I. LOVE. YIELD.
  • meistereder
    meistereder Posts: 1,577
    I am not sure about the specific venue numbers.

    But... Since the ten club only has a relatively small percentage of the tickets anyway, the new random rows thing (1-2, 9-10) means that getting 10C tickets means that you have a pretty good chance of getting those first couple rows. Whether "pretty good" means 9% or 5% or 12% I guess depends on the arena, the number of total seats, etc. But the odds are pretty good if you think about it. I would have had a 0% chance before, and if my odds are now 1 in 20 or 1 in 10, I am happy.

    And the best thing is that the people who would otherwise be in the first 2 rows every time don't miss out THAT much. It is not like they are getting bumped back to where the high number people would be. They're in the 3rd and 4th row, which is amazing. Everyone wins, the way I see it.
    San Diego 10/25/00, Mountain View 6/1/03, Santa Barbara 10/28/03, Northwest School 3/18/05, San Diego 7/7/06, Los Angeles 7/9/06, 7/10/06, Honolulu (U2) 12/9/06, Santa Barbara (EV) 4/10/08, Los Angeles (EV) 4/12/08, Hartford 6/27/08, Mansfield 6/28/08, VH1 Rock Honors The Who 7/12/08, Seattle 9/21/09, Universal City 9/30/09, 10/1/09, 10/6/09, 10/7/09, San Diego 10/9/09, Los Angeles (EV) 7/8/11, Santa Barbara (EV) 7/9/11, Chicago 7/19/13, San Diego 11/21/13, Los Angeles 11/23/13, 11/24/13, Oakland 11/26/13, Chicago 8/22/16, Missoula 8/13/18, Boston 9/2/18, Los Angeles 2/25/22 (EV), San Diego 5/3/22, Los Angeles 5/6/22, 5/7/22, Imola 6/25/22, Los Angeles 5/21/24, [London 6/29/24], [Boston 9/15/24]
  • pineapplesandwaves
    pineapplesandwaves Posts: 584
    meistereder wrote:
    But... Since the ten club only has a relatively small percentage of the tickets anyway, the new random rows thing (1-2, 9-10) means that getting 10C tickets means that you have a pretty good chance of getting those first couple rows. Whether "pretty good" means 9% or 5% or 12% I guess depends on the arena, the number of total seats, etc. But the odds are pretty good if you think about it. I would have had a 0% chance before, and if my odds are now 1 in 20 or 1 in 10, I am happy..
    You also have to account for the seniority 10C members who will then fill in rows 3-8 after rows 1-2 have been allotted. Everyone is involved in the lottery for rows 1-2, not so for rows 9-10, obviously. I think the odds of getting rows 1-2 is about 4% (1000 10C tickets, 44 pairs of seats in the first two rows).
    No time to be void or save up on life. You got to spend it all.
  • JP2026766
    JP2026766 Posts: 1,125
    pineapplesandwaves wrote:
    You also have to account for the seniority 10C members who will then fill in rows 3-8 after rows 1-2 have been allotted. Everyone is involved in the lottery for rows 1-2, not so for rows 9-10, obviously. I think the odds of getting rows 1-2 is about 4% (1000 10C tickets, 44 pairs of seats in the first two rows).

    Ah true, I didn't think of that. So then eliminate about 250 seats, 125 10c members. So then 44 pairs of tix for about 800 members? Still, better than the 0% odds I would normally have!

    Mansfield II '08

    EV Solo Shows:

    NYC I
    NJPAC

    I. LOVE. YIELD.
  • meistereder
    meistereder Posts: 1,577
    ThrowUrArmsAroundMe wrote:
    Ah true, I didn't think of that. So then eliminate about 250 seats, 125 10c members. So then 44 pairs of tix for about 800 members? Still, better than the 0% odds I would normally have!


    Even assuming we are looking at 4.4% odds or whatever, that is pretty sweet. We're getting tickets at face value and have a 1 in 22 chance of getting first 2 rows.
    San Diego 10/25/00, Mountain View 6/1/03, Santa Barbara 10/28/03, Northwest School 3/18/05, San Diego 7/7/06, Los Angeles 7/9/06, 7/10/06, Honolulu (U2) 12/9/06, Santa Barbara (EV) 4/10/08, Los Angeles (EV) 4/12/08, Hartford 6/27/08, Mansfield 6/28/08, VH1 Rock Honors The Who 7/12/08, Seattle 9/21/09, Universal City 9/30/09, 10/1/09, 10/6/09, 10/7/09, San Diego 10/9/09, Los Angeles (EV) 7/8/11, Santa Barbara (EV) 7/9/11, Chicago 7/19/13, San Diego 11/21/13, Los Angeles 11/23/13, 11/24/13, Oakland 11/26/13, Chicago 8/22/16, Missoula 8/13/18, Boston 9/2/18, Los Angeles 2/25/22 (EV), San Diego 5/3/22, Los Angeles 5/6/22, 5/7/22, Imola 6/25/22, Los Angeles 5/21/24, [London 6/29/24], [Boston 9/15/24]

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