Will all obama's "supporters" refuse to pull the lever for him on Election Day?

musicismylife78 · October 2008

You often hear this analysis. That people dont want to be labeled racist, so publicly they say "yes I am all for Barack Obama". but secretly they have some deep seated racism and on election day will cast the vote for Mccain.

Any truth to this?

Would these people even after all that, say the next day tell all their friends "yeah I voted for Obama", even though they didnt?

Is this a problem for Obama? Voters who say they will vote for him, but wont?

Uncle Leo · October 2008

some truth. Guess we'll find out how much.

chopitdown · October 2008

are the conspiracy theorists at it all ready????

jimed14 · October 2008

The Bradley effect ... it could happen ... but, there was no evidence of it in the primaries ...

Even in New Hampshire where Hillary Clinton surprised the polsters and won, that wasn't because the Obama numbers were wrong, it was because the Clinton numbers were wrong.

But, it's certianly a possibility ... I think that is why the Obama campaign will not rest until Nov 5th ... I don't think they are comfortable with leads under 5-6%.

musicismylife78 · October 2008

chopitdown wrote:

are the conspiracy theorists at it all ready????

I am very into conspiracy theories, but this isnt one chopitdown. I dont think its a conspiracy if it transpires this way.

Our country has a racist past, and alot of racism still lingers.

To suggest that people may not vote for obama because of race, isnt some nutjob theory, its a legitimate question.

Race has played a huge role in this election cycle.

jimed14 · October 2008

chopitdown wrote:

are the conspiracy theorists at it all ready????

we're not talking about voter fraud .. we're talking about widely inaccurate polling when it comes to a black candidate ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

norm · October 2008

jimed14 wrote:

The Bradley effect ... it could happen ... but, there was no evidence of it in the primaries ...

my friend and i were talking about this last night....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_bradley_effect

acoustic guy · October 2008

I hope not. I don't like Obama but it has nothing to do with color. I hope people use their heads when voting.

MrBrian · October 2008

I think it will to some degree, as it's been said, we will know exactly how much after the election.

prytoj · October 2008

acoustic guy wrote:

I hope not. I don't like Obama but it has nothing to do with color. I hope people use their heads when voting.

word

chopitdown · October 2008

radiohead33 wrote:

I am very into conspiracy theories, but this isnt one chopitdown. I dont think its a conspiracy if it transpires this way.

Our country has a racist past, and alot of racism still lingers.

To suggest that people may not vote for obama because of race, isnt some nutjob theory, its a legitimate question.

Race has played a huge role in this election cycle.

of course some people won't vote for him b/c of his race. But those people, made up their mind long ago; just like the ones that will vote for him only b/c of his race.. I don't think you'll have the scenario you present happen. I highly doubt you'll have millions go into the polls outspoken obama supporters, then under the shroud of secrecy vote mccain. Will a few do that...prob...will enough to make a difference do that...not in my opinion.

chopitdown · October 2008

jimed14 wrote:

we're not talking about voter fraud .. we're talking about widely inaccurate polling when it comes to a black candidate ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

you also have to assume that everyone person polled will actually show up to vote. There may be many who support obama that don't pull the switch for either candidate for some reason. the poll would still be accurate b/c they said they supported Obama...but if they don't vote then the voting is correct and the polling is correct. The only way the polling isn't reflective of the vote is if someone intentionally lies on the poll AND votes the opposite.

jimed14 · October 2008

chopitdown wrote:

of course some people won't vote for him b/c of his race. But those people, made up their mind long ago; just like the ones that will vote for him only b/c of his race.. I don't think you'll have the scenario you present happen. I highly doubt you'll have millions go into the polls outspoken obama supporters, then under the shroud of secrecy vote mccain. Will a few do that...prob...will enough to make a difference do that...not in my opinion.

It won't take millions, it may only take a few thousand in a state like Ohio or Pennsylvania.

We're not talking about "outspoken" Obama supporters .... we are just talking about people who, when asked by pollsters, say they will vote for Obama for fear of being looked at as a racist if they say they aren't, but, then they do not vote Obama.

chopitdown · October 2008

jimed14 wrote:

It won't take millions, it may only take a few thousand in a state like Ohio or Pennsylvania.

We're not talking about "outspoken" Obama supporters .... we are just talking about people who, when asked by pollsters, say they will vote for Obama for fear of being looked at as a racist if they say they aren't, but, then they do not vote Obama.

sure, it could happen...but it's just an academic exercise to have the conversation...we'll never know what the reasons are. That being said, i still don't think the number that will do that will make a difference.

YieldInHiding · October 2008

radiohead33 wrote:

You often hear this analysis.

Can you provide a link(s)?

jimed14 · October 2008

YieldInHiding wrote:

Can you provide a link(s)?

there are links in the thread already

YieldInHiding · October 2008

jimed14 wrote:

there are links in the thread already

No, there is a link to a wikipedia entry about the Bradley Effect. I haven't often heard the anaylsis as it relates to this election. I was asking for the OP to provide links to the analysis (hopefully other than from the Hannity forum or The Weekly Standard).

Brain of J.Lo · October 2008

I don't know. I've heard family members say that they're gonna vote for "the nigger" because they really don't like John McCain or the what Republican Party has to offer.

I don't doubt their sincerity about voting for Obama, and I have never doubted their racism.

Solat13 · October 2008

Brain of J.Lo wrote:

I don't know. I've heard family members say that they're gonna vote for "the nigger" because they really don't like John McCain or the what Republican Party has to offer.

I don't doubt their sincerity about voting for Obama, and I have never doubted their racism.

I live in an almost all white Italian neighborhood in South Philly that almost all of the time votes Dem.

In 2004, I saw 12 Kerry signs in a three block radius of my house and only one house had a Bush Cheyney sign.

This election I have seen 7 Mcain/Palin signs, 6 Italian Americans for McCain/Palin signs, 1 Nader sign, and 1 Obama sign.

At least my neighbors aren't keeping their true feelings secret this year. Or maybe they really believe McCain is the reason to no longer be a lifelong Democrat? :rolleyes:

jimed14 · October 2008

YieldInHiding wrote:

No, there is a link to a wikipedia entry about the Bradley Effect. I haven't often heard the anaylsis as it relates to this election. I was asking for the OP to provide links to the analysis (hopefully other than from the Hannity forum or The Weekly Standard).

well, nothing can really be proven or have data put against it until the election actually happens.

YieldInHiding · October 2008

jimed14 wrote:

well, nothing can really be proven or have data put against it until the election actually happens.

I think he was referring to people discussing this issue and I haven't seen many examples of it since he has "often heard" it.

Will all obama's "supporters" refuse to pull the lever for him on Election Day?

Comments

Categories