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2020 Election Predictions
Halifax2TheMax
Posts: 36,576
I figured I'd start a thread with one week left to go for folks to make their 2020 election predictions. Post who wins, by what percentage, number of electoral votes, gross turnout numbers, new voters, number of ballots not counted or rejected, states that have re-counts, do Dems take the senate? Make your predictions here and play with the link below. Lets see where this all ends up several weeks after the election. Have fun and stay sane.
I'm overly optimistic (but I really want to see Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat get his clocked cleaned, leaving no doubt that he was overwhelmingly rejected):
Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden: 58% of the popular vote (101,500,000)
Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat: 41% of the popular vote (73,500,000)
Third Party Candidate(s): 1% of the popular vote (1,750,000)
Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden: 344-353 of the electoral vote
Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat: 185-194 of the electoral vote
175,000,000 total votes cast
47,000,000 new, additional votes over 2016
Dems retake the senate (not sure which states flip but I so hope Lindsey Flimsy Flip Flop Faloozy Graham loses)
Be BOLD or go home.
https://www.pbssocal.org/kcet-originals/ballot-brief/make-electoral-college-vote-predictions-pbs-newshours-interactive-map/
I'm overly optimistic (but I really want to see Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat get his clocked cleaned, leaving no doubt that he was overwhelmingly rejected):
Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden: 58% of the popular vote (101,500,000)
Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat: 41% of the popular vote (73,500,000)
Third Party Candidate(s): 1% of the popular vote (1,750,000)
Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden: 344-353 of the electoral vote
Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat: 185-194 of the electoral vote
175,000,000 total votes cast
47,000,000 new, additional votes over 2016
Dems retake the senate (not sure which states flip but I so hope Lindsey Flimsy Flip Flop Faloozy Graham loses)
Be BOLD or go home.
https://www.pbssocal.org/kcet-originals/ballot-brief/make-electoral-college-vote-predictions-pbs-newshours-interactive-map/
09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN;
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Post edited by Halifax2TheMax on
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I don't have any illusions that Joe Biden will be the best president we've ever had, but he will do fine. He is WAY more likely to rely on his team and his advisors to make decision rather than act compulsively on his whims and his ego the way Trump has.
I'll pick what is right.
If civil wat is what it takes, that is awful.
Better than treating anyone not straight, white, and male like a second (or worse) class citizen.
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
Cheers,
HFD
i know it's social media....but i really hope we're not heading for a big shock.
Cheers,
HFD
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
But yeah, go to this IG post by PJ yesterday and check out the comment section. I'd wager a guess it's even more than 10 to 1 pro-Trump comments....
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
Cheers,
HFD
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Really though, you’d have to be an idiot to not know the election is Tuesday and that voting typically goes along with it.
Cheers,
HFD
u/f, SO many people fit that description.
Henry Olsen is a Washington Post columnist and a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.
“These are the times that try men’s souls.” The opening line of Thomas Paine’s Revolutionary War pamphlet series, “The American Crisis,” resonates with Americans as much today as it did during the bleak winter of 1776. We, like our patriot ancestors, are locked in a struggle each side believes it must win to preserve the freedom and human dignity that are the natural rights of every American. Our souls are bowed under the pressure of the conflict, but each side remains resolute, even as we feel our nation’s bonds weaken under the strain. All eagerly desire victory on Tuesday, and fear what might befall them if they are defeated.
Democrats need not fear. This, my sixth published biennial election prediction essay, is perhaps my easiest: Former vice president Joe Biden will win comfortably unless we experience the greatest polling failure in modern history. Democrats will also gain control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House. While not the landslide that some hope for, Democrats will simultaneously control the presidency and both houses of Congress for only the third time since Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980. That alone is a historic achievement that will give them the upper hand to determine the next stage of our ongoing national crisis.
My presidential race forecast
Biden’s win: Common sense
For all the disorder and uncertainty from the pandemic and our summer of racial discontent, Biden’s victory will be the result of long-established truths about American politics. To borrow from Paine’s most famous work, it will be a case of common sense.
It is common sense that a president running for reelection will be judged on whether he handled the job well enough to deserve another chance; reelections are always referendums on the president. It is common sense that a president deemed to have failed his biggest challenges will have lost his fellow citizens’ trust. President Trump has failed both tests in the eyes of the American people and will lose as a result.
Trump’s job approval ratings show this. Historically, presidents who run for reelection receive a share of the popular vote that is remarkably close to their final job approval rating. The RealClearPolitics polling average has tracked Trump’s job approval throughout his presidency. He is the first president to have never received a 50 percent rating; indeed, he has never come close. Trump’s highest marks came this year between March 26 and April 2, when he topped 47 percent. As of Sunday morning, his job approval stood at 45 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. Given that there won’t be as much third-party voting this time around, that just won’t be good enough to win.
Trump’s mediocre handling of the coronavirus pandemic probably sealed his fate. It’s no coincidence that his high-water mark came at the pandemic’s onset. Politicians around the world saw their approval ratings rise as scared citizens “rallied around the flag” to support their leaders. Trump’s handling of the pandemic was initially viewed favorably by more than half of Americans, according to the RealClearPolitics poll average. But it has steadily sunk since then, thanks to his public gaffes (injecting bleach) and his marked belief that keeping the economy open was more important than controlling the virus.
Trump’s failure stands in notable contrast to his global peers. They have mostly sustained their high ratings, and their political parties have benefited. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern won her national elections in a historic landslide last month, and three Canadian provincial premiers — two conservative, one progressive — all won their recent elections with substantially improved results. Trump could have reaped the rewards of a grateful nation. Instead, he sowed the wind and will reap the whirlwind.
Despite all of these obstacles, Trump still had an outside shot in late September. His job approval ratings had been steadily climbing from their mid-July nadir and stood at roughly 45 percent on the eve of the first presidential debate. His task was difficult but clear: make the case that he deserved a second term despite all that had happened, and raise doubts about Biden’s ability to do better. Most political analysts believe that if Trump loses the popular vote by three points or less, he could still win the electoral college. To do that, he needed to get his approval rating above 47 percent. Instead, at that Sept. 29 debate, Trump displayed a level of boorishness that was shocking even for him. His rise halted, and his approval ratings dropped back. Trump’s second debate performance was more measured, but the damage was done.
Polling data among key demographics all show why Trump will fall short. In 2016, Trump won among independent voters by a narrow margin, 46 percent to 42 percent. National polling averages today show Biden carrying independents 52 percent to Trump’s 41 percent, with 7 percent going to third-party candidates. And while Trump has attracted support from 5 percent of Democrats, Biden has pulled in 7 percent of Republicans. Those shifts are why Biden is polling above Hillary Clinton’s levels at this stage of the campaign and Trump remains mired in the mid-40s.
[The final Power Ranking: Here’s who the pundits think are going to win — everything]
Trump’s decline is almost exclusively among White voters. Polls suggest he will do slightly better among Hispanics and Blacks than he did four years ago. But Trump is set to lose college-educated Whites, once a Republican-leaning group, by 14 percentage points, 56 percent to 42 percent. Among his core constituency, Whites without a college degree, the president is ahead 59 percent to 38 percent, compared with leading 64 percent to 28 percent in 2016. Given his weakness among non-White voters, and the rising share of non-Whites in the electorate, Trump needs to carry Whites by more than 15 points to have a chance. His current lead among them is only about 7½ points, far short of where he needs to be.
This becomes clear when we look at the electorate’s likely composition. Data from the Pew Research Center, exit polls from 2016 and 2018, and a recent projection from the survey firm Echelon Insights show that White voters should count for 71 percent to 74 percent of the 2020 electorate. Even the most favorable demographic option for Trump gives Biden almost a six-point lead with Trump’s current weakness among Whites. Less favorable assumptions give Biden a lead as high as nine points.
We reach the same result if we look at the electorate through a partisan lens. Polling data show the partisan composition of the electorate has been remarkably stable in recent years. Democrats make up roughly 36 percent of all voters, while Republicans and independents each hover around 32 percent. If we apply current polling margins to these breakdowns, Biden would have a lead of 52.4 percent to Trump’s 44 percent, only slightly larger than the 52.6-to-45.3 lead Biden receives from the median racial demographic estimate.
These breakdowns assume that undecided voters tend to break against the incumbent by a significant margin. In the past, I have allocated 70 percent of undecideds to a challenger and only 30 percent to the incumbent. Assuming about 2.2 percent of all voters will cast ballots for a third-party or write-in candidate (that would be less than half of the 6 percent that did so in 2016 but slightly higher than the 1.9 percent in 2012), that means only a bit more than 1 percent of voters remained undecided prior to my allocation.
If Biden wins by a bit more than seven points, he will win many states that Trump carried in 2016. Since Clinton won the popular vote by two points in 2016, Biden’s share of the vote represents a five-point swing in the Democrats’ favor. Moreover, because those gains are coming almost entirely among White voters, the shift will be larger in the heavily White states in the Midwest that Trump shockingly carried last time. This means Biden will easily triumph in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. A shift of this margin also means that perennially close Florida should also shift into Biden camp, as will Arizona, where Trump won by only 3.5 percent in 2016. This would mirror the Democratic victory there in 2018’s marquee Senate race.
Three other states are on the cusp of going to Biden: North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia. Iowa should go narrowly for Trump, although that could change if Biden wins nationally by even a slightly larger margin. Georgia will be extremely close if Biden wins by a bit more than seven points, and Trump should narrowly prevail if Biden’s national margin drops much below seven points. Biden should win North Carolina at this level, but he is in danger of losing it to Trump if his lead drops to about six points nationally.
Biden should also gain an electoral vote in states that award electors to the winner in each of the state’s congressional seats and could win a second. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District encompasses Omaha and its suburbs, and Biden should win that under any of these scenarios. Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is a very rural, White and working-class seat that Trump carried by more than 10 points in 2016. Polls there show Biden narrowly ahead, and he should carry it if he wins by eight to nine points nationally. The race here is a toss-up at a seven-point margin, and Trump should carry it if Biden wins nationally by much less than that.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/02/henry-olsen-2020-president-congress-election-predictions/?arc404=true
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Predicts Biden with a 52.5 to 45.3 popular vote and a 350 to 188 electoral vote victory.
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I'm going with: Biden wins popular vote. Trump somehow gets 270.
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