2016 Tour lottery Ticket Odds

amethgr8 · January 2016

aNiMaL Posts: 7,037
July 2013 Flag
pearljamdude420 wrote:
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and how many did you enter for? I won 4 of 8 shows but I enter both philly and both la, so it was only possible at most to win 6 of 8 cause no one can win both la and both philly
Just those three shows. I got my top three priorities; sea reserved, portland and spokane both GA.

from the 2013 tour forum comments, looks like this member got seattle reserved 1st, then GA portland and spokane for his 2nd and 3rd choices. it CAN happen, it's a lottery.

vinnie7 · January 2016

Just wanting some advice on trying to get the best seated tickets I can get. I'm a new member and have read the stories about being seated behind GA. With such a high number like mine (500xxx) I was unsure if it would be best to just go through TM instead of the lottery. The show which I'm trying to attend is in Greenville which has pretty good odds at the moment for reserved seats but I was wondering if my chances are better at getting a good seat with TC or TM due to my high number. Any advice appreciated.

3days · January 2016

vinnie7 said:
Just wanting some advice on trying to get the best seated tickets I can get. I'm a new member and have read the stories about being seated behind GA. With such a high number like mine (500xxx) I was unsure if it would be best to just go through TM instead of the lottery. The show which I'm trying to attend is in Greenville which has pretty good odds at the moment for reserved seats but I was wondering if my chances are better at getting a good seat with TC or TM due to my high number. Any advice appreciated.

10c will generally be the closest tickets you can get for sale. Only advantage to TM is knowing where you will sit ahead of time. For example, if you're short you can try for front row of a particular section, or a higher up section to ensure you'll be able to see.

AlaG · January 2016

ComeToTX said:

benna12 said:
Does anyone remember what the odds were right before they drew the lottery for Wrigley a few years ago? Or did this new odds tracker come after Wrigley? Hoping to get an idea as to what the odds will be for the Fenway shows......
They didn't have the odds feature for Wrigley.

Also, those odds wouldn't at all be an accurate standard with which to measure your odds for Fenway tickets. For starters, there will be 2 shows, meaning double the odds. Also people from the middle of the country over to the West Coast will likely be trying for Wrigley instead if they're trying to hit one of the stadium shows. Less competition, so at least double your odds again. Then we have this upcoming tour leg and likely another tour leg in the Fall. Probably will be AT LEAST 10 to 20 times easier to win tix to one of the Fenway shows than it was to win tix to Wrigley in 2013.

amethgr8 · January 2016

someone else splained it like everyones name goes into a giant lottery for all the shows and they pull a name and then assign them their #1 priority.

front spacer · January 2016

alskaraoke said:

This response just confirms what many have been saying here since the lottery began.....while the odds are a useful tool to show what shows are in highest demand, it isn't an indication on the percentage of likelihood of winning certain tickets. The percentages are made up of EVERYONE'S ticket requests, regardless of it being their first selection, second selection, or tenth selection.

vinnie7 · January 2016

3days said:

vinnie7 said:
Just wanting some advice on trying to get the best seated tickets I can get. I'm a new member and have read the stories about being seated behind GA. With such a high number like mine (500xxx) I was unsure if it would be best to just go through TM instead of the lottery. The show which I'm trying to attend is in Greenville which has pretty good odds at the moment for reserved seats but I was wondering if my chances are better at getting a good seat with TC or TM due to my high number. Any advice appreciated.
10c will generally be the closest tickets you can get for sale. Only advantage to TM is knowing where you will sit ahead of time. For example, if you're short you can try for front row of a particular section, or a higher up section to ensure you'll be able to see.

Ok thanks

3days said:

vinnie7 said:
Just wanting some advice on trying to get the best seated tickets I can get. I'm a new member and have read the stories about being seated behind GA. With such a high number like mine (500xxx) I was unsure if it would be best to just go through TM instead of the lottery. The show which I'm trying to attend is in Greenville which has pretty good odds at the moment for reserved seats but I was wondering if my chances are better at getting a good seat with TC or TM due to my high number. Any advice appreciated.
10c will generally be the closest tickets you can get for sale. Only advantage to TM is knowing where you will sit ahead of time. For example, if you're short you can try for front row of a particular section, or a higher up section to ensure you'll be able to see.

Ok thanks for that. That helps me.

Leezestarr313 · January 2016

And really, being behind GA does not mean you will have a bad show! The cool thing with most tenclub seats is that it means you are probably in a group of like minded fans. With TM, you can end up in a "dead section". Of course you still have your own party, and you are still there, and it is still awesome cause it's a PJ show, but it is a nice little extra to be surrounded by fellow "freaks" so to speak.

front spacer · January 2016

So take for example some of the South Florida shows......

Miami currently is at approximately 40% GA and 70% Reserved-

Most people probably have GA as their 1st selection if this is their top show and then reserved as their 2nd selection. So you basically have a 4 in 10 chance of scoring your top pick of Miami GA, if you do....your 2nd selection of reserved is canceled. This will make the likelihood of scoring reserved with even a 2nd selection pretty good, since A LOT of people would have gotten GA with pick 1 and no longer need pick 2 for Miami. This will hold true for nearly every show.........

MSG, Philly, and Toronto are the wildcards. You will most likely only score tickets for any type of seat IF it is your 1st selection. Nothing will probably reach a possible 2nd selection. So if you gamble with GA at 1, reserved at 2 probably won't happen.

Red Lukin · January 2016

I'm still confused. Can you guys analyze it a bit more for me please?

front spacer · January 2016

Red Lukin said:
I'm still confused. Can you guys analyze it a bit more for me please?

^^^^Probably sarcasm, but fact is that likelihood is probably better than the percentages indicate.

fall by the wayside · January 2016

amethgr8 said:
someone else splained it like everyones name goes into a giant lottery for all the shows and they pull a name and then assign them their #1 priority.

That's pretty much the opposite of what happens.

3days · January 2016

front spacer said:
So take for example some of the South Florida shows......

Miami currently is at approximately 40% GA and 70% Reserved-

Most people probably have GA as their 1st selection if this is their top show and then reserved as their 2nd selection. So you basically have a 4 in 10 chance of scoring your top pick of Miami GA, if you do....your 2nd selection of reserved is canceled. This will make the likelihood of scoring reserved with even a 2nd selection pretty good, since A LOT of people would have gotten GA with pick 1 and no longer need pick 2 for Miami. This will hold true for nearly every show.........

MSG, Philly, and Toronto are the wildcards. You will most likely only score tickets for any type of seat IF it is your 1st selection. Nothing will probably reach a possible 2nd selection. So if you gamble with GA at 1, reserved at 2 probably won't happen.

That is probably correct, BUT if you go for reserved with your first choice being MSG, Philly, or Toronto and strike out, GA at second choice is far less likely to happen (if possible at all).

If being up close is what you're after, roll the dice and go for GA. If not, try for reserved.

vinnie7 · January 2016

Leezestarr313 said:
And really, being behind GA does not mean you will have a bad show! The cool thing with most tenclub seats is that it means you are probably in a group of like minded fans. With TM, you can end up in a "dead section". Of course you still have your own party, and you are still there, and it is still awesome cause it's a PJ show, but it is a nice little extra to be surrounded by fellow "freaks" so to speak.

Good point!

on2legs · January 2016

SPEEDY MCCREADY said:

alskaraoke said:

SPEEDY MCCREADY said:

SPEEDY MCCREADY said:

lukins fridge said:
Everyone seems to be asking the same kind of question and no one really knows the answer. Let me try to pose it another way.

(True) Scenario:
I want to go to one of the Philly shows in any way shape or form. I do REALLY REALLY want GA -preferably April 29.

So ignoring the odds, this is how I should pick:

CHOICE 1: April 29 - Philadelphia, PA- GA Standing
CHOICE 2: April 28 - Philadelphia, PA- GA Standing
CHOICE 3: April 29 - Philadelphia, PA- Reserved Seating
CHOICE 4: April 28 - Philadelphia, PA- Reserved Seating

However, I don't want to get completely shut out of both shows either. So should I take the odds into consideration and pick this way?:

CHOICE 1: April 28 - Philadelphia, PA- Reserved Seating 46%
CHOICE 2: April 29 - Philadelphia, PA- Reserved Seating 36%
CHOICE 3: April 28 - Philadelphia, PA- GA Standing 20%
CHOICE 4: April 29 - Philadelphia, PA- GA Standing 16%

Anyone know? Bueller?
You are only allowed to win tickets for 1 show. Right?
With that being said, if it were me, I would have reserved seats as my 1st 2 choices.
I would be more than thrilled to be in the building.
I would be more than thrilled with the reserved seats that my 10club number got me. (Like everyone here was for 20 years, until GA turned everyone in to a bunch of ding-a-lings)

Get your reserved seats.
Have a wonderful time at the show.

In other words, look at the lottery as just that, a lottery.

You are assigned a ping pong ball. You allow your ping pong ball to go into the big spinning bucket for GA seats.

When the lottery begins, and they start drawing those ping pong balls, your ping ball may just sit in that bucket for an hour, dying a long ugly death, while all the reserved tickets are being distributed. You know what I mean? Not only are you not drawn for a GA seat, but as you waited, all the reserved tickets were also taken.

Putting GA as your 1st 2 choices, may just be a guarantee that you end up with NOTHING.
Well said my friend.
A few years ago(I think it was the last Wrigley show), the day after tons of people were shut out for tickets, I remember I gave that ping pong ball analogy.

It was sad to see people realize that by putting in for GA, they basically shut themselves out altogether.

I look at NYC, and Philly the same as Wrigley 2013.
Its an extremely difficult ticket. Don't obsess over GA.
Give yourself the BEST chance to just get into the building.

I put in for Wrigley GA as my first choice and Reserve as my second choice. I won Reserve tickets with my second choice. I had a blast at the show.

SPEEDY MCCREADY · January 2016

on2legs said:

SPEEDY MCCREADY said:

alskaraoke said:

SPEEDY MCCREADY said:

SPEEDY MCCREADY said:

lukins fridge said:
Everyone seems to be asking the same kind of question and no one really knows the answer. Let me try to pose it another way.

(True) Scenario:
I want to go to one of the Philly shows in any way shape or form. I do REALLY REALLY want GA -preferably April 29.

So ignoring the odds, this is how I should pick:

CHOICE 1: April 29 - Philadelphia, PA- GA Standing
CHOICE 2: April 28 - Philadelphia, PA- GA Standing
CHOICE 3: April 29 - Philadelphia, PA- Reserved Seating
CHOICE 4: April 28 - Philadelphia, PA- Reserved Seating

However, I don't want to get completely shut out of both shows either. So should I take the odds into consideration and pick this way?:

CHOICE 1: April 28 - Philadelphia, PA- Reserved Seating 46%
CHOICE 2: April 29 - Philadelphia, PA- Reserved Seating 36%
CHOICE 3: April 28 - Philadelphia, PA- GA Standing 20%
CHOICE 4: April 29 - Philadelphia, PA- GA Standing 16%

Anyone know? Bueller?
You are only allowed to win tickets for 1 show. Right?
With that being said, if it were me, I would have reserved seats as my 1st 2 choices.
I would be more than thrilled to be in the building.
I would be more than thrilled with the reserved seats that my 10club number got me. (Like everyone here was for 20 years, until GA turned everyone in to a bunch of ding-a-lings)

Get your reserved seats.
Have a wonderful time at the show.

In other words, look at the lottery as just that, a lottery.

You are assigned a ping pong ball. You allow your ping pong ball to go into the big spinning bucket for GA seats.

When the lottery begins, and they start drawing those ping pong balls, your ping ball may just sit in that bucket for an hour, dying a long ugly death, while all the reserved tickets are being distributed. You know what I mean? Not only are you not drawn for a GA seat, but as you waited, all the reserved tickets were also taken.

Putting GA as your 1st 2 choices, may just be a guarantee that you end up with NOTHING.
Well said my friend.
A few years ago(I think it was the last Wrigley show), the day after tons of people were shut out for tickets, I remember I gave that ping pong ball analogy.

It was sad to see people realize that by putting in for GA, they basically shut themselves out altogether.

I look at NYC, and Philly the same as Wrigley 2013.
Its an extremely difficult ticket. Don't obsess over GA.
Give yourself the BEST chance to just get into the building.
I put in for Wrigley GA as my first choice and Reserve as my second choice. I won Reserve tickets with my second choice. I had a blast at the show.

Wrigley was fun.

I just hope everyone here who is trying for NYC and Philly realizes one thing. Its pretty simple.
If you put GA as your 1st choices, there is a great chance you get shutout all around. At least that is what I have seen over the last 3 years. I have friends of mine, who I know for a fact always go for strictly GA, as their 1st choices, and they have been consistently shut out. I know folks who have been shut out 8 to 12 times. Its a shame, but they know going in that going for GA is truly a gamble. At least for the East Coast shows.

But who am I? Just another clown on this board(amongst many clowns)!
Go for your GA seats and GOOD LUCK!
Have fun at the shows.

But if you end up shut out, and then go to ticketmaster and end up in the 15th balcony?
I don't want to hear your bitching! Hahaha

WickedJeremy · January 2016

So what, did I miss the bus because I missed the email? I can't find where to get in on this stupid lottery. 20 years of Fan Club dues only to be kicked out of fan club tickets two tours in a row. PISSED

PJfanwillneverleave1 · January 2016

I think this live odds calculator is very unnerving.
It's worse than the anticipation of waiting for a tour announcement was.

my2hands · January 2016

I sat in the very last row, literally all the way up in the last row of the back, in Montreal 2005... and I had the time of my life

WickedJeremy · January 2016

Ah found it. But not gonna be happy if I don't get 10c tix

SPEEDY MCCREADY · January 2016

WickedJeremy said:
So what, did I miss the bus because I missed the email? I can't find where to get in on this stupid lottery. 20 years of Fan Club dues only to be kicked out of fan club tickets two tours in a row. PISSED

Up on top.

Hit the search button
Hit the my account button
Hit the ten club tickets button

holleroxx · January 2016

I can only afford one show, Tampa. I've got a great member number, never used the lotto for tickets. I have reserved as my #1 and GA as #2. I don't want GA but I also don't wanna miss the show all together. Is it safe to say I will be sitting in a sweet reserved seat? Since its at 99% still.

mcgruff10 · January 2016

SPEEDY MCCREADY said:

adamvs91 said:

SPEEDY MCCREADY said:

my2hands said:
There is another way of looking at it...

You can't buy GA Pit tickets... they are not sold to the general public at all... you can buy a reserved ticket in multiple ways whenever you want... I completely understand why people go for the GA tickets
I love seeing the casual fan, or maybe not the casual fan, but the fan who doesn't post here all day and every day(like you and I...Haha), come on this board and announce they won GA tickets. I love reading their absolute joy.

There are also people on this board that I can honestly say I am thrilled to hear got shut out for GA. Because there are people here who will lie, cheat, steal, and fuck over whoever they can, just to get that GA seat.

GA seats created a lot of monsters on this board.
GA seats brought out the "true colors" of some of the fans on this website.
GA seats turned some people into obsessive assholes.

And now maybe I am overthinking this.
Hahahahaha

Aw man. I don't believe it. You all seem like such nice people.
The way some people handle the whole GA scenario, just rubs me the wrong way.

The people who attend 10-20 shows a tour, who have been to 100 shows, yet STILL have to do whatever they have to do, in order to sit in GA? Those people get on my nerves. And unfortunately, I know plenty of those people.

bingo.

SPEEDY MCCREADY · January 2016

holleroxx said:
I can only afford one show, Tampa. I've got a great member number, never used the lotto for tickets. I have reserved as my #1 and GA as #2. I don't want GA but I also don't wanna miss the show all together. Is it safe to say I will be sitting in a sweet reserved seat? Since its at 99% still.

Safe to say you will have a sweet reserved seat.

Have fun at the show.

WickedJeremy · January 2016

SPEEDY MCCREADY said:

WickedJeremy said:
So what, did I miss the bus because I missed the email? I can't find where to get in on this stupid lottery. 20 years of Fan Club dues only to be kicked out of fan club tickets two tours in a row. PISSED
Up on top.

Hit the search button
Hit the my account button
Hit the ten club tickets button

Thanks bro

holleroxx · January 2016

SPEEDY MCCREADY said:

holleroxx said:
I can only afford one show, Tampa. I've got a great member number, never used the lotto for tickets. I have reserved as my #1 and GA as #2. I don't want GA but I also don't wanna miss the show all together. Is it safe to say I will be sitting in a sweet reserved seat? Since its at 99% still.
Safe to say you will have a sweet reserved seat.

Have fun at the show.

Sweet! It's been so long!

fall by the wayside · January 2016

my2hands said:
I sat in the very last row, literally all the way up in the last row of the back, in Montreal 2005... and I had the time of my life

Right on. I have been in the very last row, very top row for a couple of PJ shows. Brooklyn 2 2013 comes to mind. And I've had an amazing time. I've also been front row dead center in front of Ed (Philly 3 2009). If your seats determine your enjoyment of the show then you're doing it wrong. And probably in it for the wrong reasons.

Pearl34Jam · January 2016

I'm really considering switching from Greenville GA to Columbia GA. But in the back of my mind I know that Greenville is expected to be like Moline

Leezestarr313 · January 2016

It really is a gamble. It's fun though, because they are touring and we all get a chance to see them!

JB111896 · January 2016

holleroxx said:
I can only afford one show, Tampa. I've got a great member number, never used the lotto for tickets. I have reserved as my #1 and GA as #2. I don't want GA but I also don't wanna miss the show all together. Is it safe to say I will be sitting in a sweet reserved seat? Since its at 99% still.

Not exactly. There's a chance that you could get GA with your second choice even though Reserved is your first priority. All GA tickets are allocated first before Reserved seats. If there's more GA tickets available in Tampa than those who chose GA with their first choice then they'll pick winners from those who picked Tampa GA with their second choice which includes you. So you could be chosen as a winner of GA before they pick Reserved Seating winners. If you'd prefer not to be in GA then don't choose it as one of your choices. If you only pick Reserved Seating in Tampa with your first choice and don't pick GA as a second choice then you would be guaranteed to be sitting in a sweet reserved seat (based on the odds right now). Picking GA as a choice after Reserved will not help your chances to get tickets it can only hurt you from getting your preferred choice of reserved seating. If there's not enough tickets to win reserved seats with one pick then there will never be GA tickets available with a later pick.

2016 Tour lottery Ticket Odds

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