Ohana Festival Update

Luckytwn1

whitepants said:

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

RatherStarved said:

They pulled the plug on Ohana 2020 in June, so we have a few months to see what happens.  If there are really enough vaccines for all Americans by the end of May then presumably by June there will be a decent indication of the impact of that.  I do agree that until something of a smaller scale occurs in the state it’s not just going to go from zero to Ohana.

I still believe the issue at hand is the international travellers from Canada, Australia, uk, etc. 

Those travelers will have to test negative of Covid to board the flight to arrive into the states. So if Ohana is a go, I think with it not being completely sold out, they might not sell any more tickets, and along with those who sought refunds, and with everyone hopefully being vaccinated by late June, Ohana could still happen, but with a smaller crowd.

Of course, the festival has already signed contracts and bands being paid full rates. So not so simple just to say the crowd will be smaller. The economics will likely not work in that scenario. Ohana is run by Ed so there may be more flexibility but in general, festivals are going to have issues if they can’t have full crowds and they’re on the hook for full rates for the performers. 

JOEJOEJOE

Luckytwn1 said:

whitepants said:

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

RatherStarved said:

They pulled the plug on Ohana 2020 in June, so we have a few months to see what happens.  If there are really enough vaccines for all Americans by the end of May then presumably by June there will be a decent indication of the impact of that.  I do agree that until something of a smaller scale occurs in the state it’s not just going to go from zero to Ohana.

I still believe the issue at hand is the international travellers from Canada, Australia, uk, etc. 

Those travelers will have to test negative of Covid to board the flight to arrive into the states. So if Ohana is a go, I think with it not being completely sold out, they might not sell any more tickets, and along with those who sought refunds, and with everyone hopefully being vaccinated by late June, Ohana could still happen, but with a smaller crowd.

Of course, the festival has already signed contracts and bands being paid full rates. So not so simple just to say the crowd will be smaller. The economics will likely not work in that scenario. Ohana is run by Ed so there may be more flexibility but in general, festivals are going to have issues if they can’t have full crowds and they’re on the hook for full rates for the performers. 

Often times, promoters get bands to lower their guarantees if tickets sales are much less than expected, etc..  Livenation is the promoter for Ohana, so perhaps they may ask the acts to take less so that the show may happen.

Luckytwn1

As someone who negotiates talent deals regularly, of course, anything can be renegotiated but guarantees are included in contracts for a reason.  

PJNB

2020 Fall tour was booked with the new spring dates mixed in. They are doing this for this fall as well I can guarantee with zero insider knowledge. Once that gets pushed they will move to winter/spring 2022 and if that gets pushed fall 2022. Thats how this will go until its safe to have shows. 

RatherStarved

I am trying to be cautiously optimistic about outdoor shows this September, although Luckytwn1 has proven over time to be more a realist than a pessimist.  I really can’t see any way for there to be packed indoor shows this year.  That’s a whole other level.  As has been said by others, I’ll gladly be wrong and see everyone there.  If we get some combo of Ohana, SHN or stadium shows this year, and park everything else for next, I’ll be happier than a, well, you know.

Luckytwn1

PJNB said:

2020 Fall tour was booked with the new spring dates mixed in. They are doing this for this fall as well I can guarantee with zero insider knowledge. Once that gets pushed they will move to winter/spring 2022 and if that gets pushed fall 2022. Thats how this will go until its safe to have shows. 

There is no chance anyone is planning indoor shows for this year at the moment. That’s why you’re seeing all dates rescheduled for 2022. Like Clapton, who just canceled his arena tour and moved it to summer 2022. 

PJNB

Luckytwn1 said:

PJNB said:

2020 Fall tour was booked with the new spring dates mixed in. They are doing this for this fall as well I can guarantee with zero insider knowledge. Once that gets pushed they will move to winter/spring 2022 and if that gets pushed fall 2022. Thats how this will go until its safe to have shows. 

There is no chance anyone is planning indoor shows for this year at the moment. That’s why you’re seeing all dates rescheduled for 2022. Like Clapton, who just canceled his arena tour and moved it to summer 2022. 

We will never know unless someone that is privy to the info leaks it out but if I was a betting man last August when they knew fall 2020 was a no go they definitely put 2021 dates on the board in hope they could happen and they would be ready for it. I am not talking about ever announcing something I am talking about holding dates like they did for fall 2020. 

JOEJOEJOE

Luckytwn1 said:

As someone who negotiates talent deals regularly, of course, anything can be renegotiated but guarantees are included in contracts for a reason.  

I agree that guarantees are important, but in this extenuating circumstance, some bands may accept reductions.

Luckytwn1

PJNB said:

Luckytwn1 said:

PJNB said:

2020 Fall tour was booked with the new spring dates mixed in. They are doing this for this fall as well I can guarantee with zero insider knowledge. Once that gets pushed they will move to winter/spring 2022 and if that gets pushed fall 2022. Thats how this will go until its safe to have shows. 

There is no chance anyone is planning indoor shows for this year at the moment. That’s why you’re seeing all dates rescheduled for 2022. Like Clapton, who just canceled his arena tour and moved it to summer 2022. 

We will never know unless someone that is privy to the info leaks it out but if I was a betting man last August when they knew fall 2020 was a no go they definitely put 2021 dates on the board in hope they could happen and they would be ready for it. I am not talking about ever announcing something I am talking about holding dates like they did for fall 2020. 

Could people place holds just to have them in case of a miracle? Sure because a hold costs you nothing. But I’ve spoken to a lot of people in the music industry and I don’t know one that thinks there will be arena shows in 2021 with full capacity and that’s what would be required for Pearl Jam as they’ve already sold the full buildings. Complicating it further is that PJ is going to be be ultra-cautious as we saw when they were the first band to cancel last year. There is very little chance PJ is playing arena shows in 2021. That is reality. 

PJNB

Luckytwn1 said:

PJNB said:

Luckytwn1 said:

PJNB said:

2020 Fall tour was booked with the new spring dates mixed in. They are doing this for this fall as well I can guarantee with zero insider knowledge. Once that gets pushed they will move to winter/spring 2022 and if that gets pushed fall 2022. Thats how this will go until its safe to have shows. 

There is no chance anyone is planning indoor shows for this year at the moment. That’s why you’re seeing all dates rescheduled for 2022. Like Clapton, who just canceled his arena tour and moved it to summer 2022. 

We will never know unless someone that is privy to the info leaks it out but if I was a betting man last August when they knew fall 2020 was a no go they definitely put 2021 dates on the board in hope they could happen and they would be ready for it. I am not talking about ever announcing something I am talking about holding dates like they did for fall 2020. 

Could people place holds just to have them in case of a miracle? Sure because a hold costs you nothing. But I’ve spoken to a lot of people in the music industry and I don’t know one that thinks there will be arena shows in 2021 with full capacity and that’s what would be required for Pearl Jam as they’ve already sold the full buildings. Complicating it further is that PJ is going to be be ultra-cautious as we saw when they were the first band to cancel last year. There is very little chance PJ is playing arena shows in 2021. That is reality. 

I think we are on the same page here about no shows happening this year for PJ and all I am saying is behind the scenes they have holds. 

RatherStarved

No indoor shows this year for PJ.  Outdoor shows.  Who’s with me?

Silvox

EOB (Ed O’Brien) has cancelled all his dates including Ohana. On his Instagram last week, he explained that he had just lost the desire to do shows this year, but I wonder if he has been told that Ohana is unlikely to happen? He had a string of North American shows scheduled for June, that he could have tried rescheduling for right after Ohana, which was his last announced show of the year.

RatherStarved

I am going to go glass half full on that.  The lineup poster that is currently online now excludes EOB whereas previously he was listed.  This tells me they are planning to proceed without him and are keeping their marketing materials current.  Time will tell,  

JeBurkhardt

RatherStarved said:

No indoor shows this year for PJ.  Outdoor shows.  Who’s with me?

There are a number of acts announcing dates and selling tickets for Summer outdoor shows. I bought tickets for the Black Crowes in July. I serious doubt I will be using my PJ tickets for St. Louis until this time next year. I am trying to stay optimistic that something could happen this Fall, but most likely not. 

The_Giant_Midget

this is promising - 

https://twitter.com/TheOhanaFest/status/1367896284279959560

Ohana official account saying it's still happening

Spunkie

What tier is Dana Point in? Ie: what percent of capacity is restricted there for outdoor concerts?

RatherStarved

I think it’s in the purple (most restrictive) tier currently.  That would be zero percent allowed in or 100% restricted! But there’s half a year to go and if the vaccinations gain a foothold things could start to change quite nicely.  

RatherStarved

Luckytwn1 said:

I am a Dodgers season ticket holder and we have been informed Newsom has still not approved fans in the ballpark but the team is hoping/expecting that will be change by the start of the season. They expect a capacity of 20 percent for the first few months and then hopefully increasing in the summer. 

Well it looks like a few fans will be allowed as of April 1, albeit with many restrictions and limitations.  But it’s a start.  

Weston1283

The_Giant_Midget said:

this is promising - 

https://twitter.com/TheOhanaFest/status/1367896284279959560

Ohana official account saying it's still happening

Posts like this would not be posted if the band has already completely ruled out 2021

PJNB

Weston1283 said:

The_Giant_Midget said:

this is promising - 

https://twitter.com/TheOhanaFest/status/1367896284279959560

Ohana official account saying it's still happening

Posts like this would not be posted if the band has already completely ruled out 2021

While they were contemplating cancelling the 2020 Spring tour their social media had a hype post that got my hopes up on Mar 7th. Mar 9th they postponed. Who knows who runs these pages and what input the band has. I think you are right as unlikely as it is though that until it is 100% clear that shows can not happen they will make an effort to have the show go on. 

https://twitter.com/PearlJam/status/1236362227785109504

RatherStarved

I think on March 7, 2020 it was business as usual for just about everyone in North America.  The gravity of the situation did not set in until the 9th (for we PJ faithful) or the 11th (for everyone else - that was the day the NBA postponed the season).  If I recall correctly, Ohana 2020 was announced and listed for sale on the morning of March 9, the very same day the band would later postpone the spring tour.

While I agree the marketing will always continue until a show is called off, I do think it’s more significant that they are marketing the 2021 edition now than that they were marketing the spring tour last March 7, as by now the situation with the virus is very well known.

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan

Disneyland can open as early as April 1 if they can make it to the red area which would be 15% capacity. The real kicker is that you have to be a California resident. 

RatherStarved

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

Disneyland can open as early as April 1 if they can make it to the red area which would be 15% capacity. The real kicker is that you have to be a California resident. 

Talk about a Mickey Mouse restriction!

RiotAct10

How are people handing flights so far? I have not booked mine yet, because I don't want to if the show will be cancelled obviously, but I am also worried with the price of fuel going up, that the price of flights will go up. In addition, if things do get better, and more people start flying, that will also cause a possible increase in flight rates. Just wondered how people have handled this far or what they are thinking?

RatherStarved

I’m not booking a flight until early September, unless something comes up that is fully refundable.

Groda03

We booked our flight a few months ago.  Could not pass up 2 round trip tickets from across country for less than $600 total.  Crazy cheap.  Tickets are not refundable for cash but if we cancel we get a full credit to use for up to 24 months.  We could not pass up the cost.  

RiotAct10

Groda03 said:

We booked our flight a few months ago.  Could not pass up 2 round trip tickets from across country for less than $600 total.  Crazy cheap.  Tickets are not refundable for cash but if we cancel we get a full credit to use for up to 24 months.  We could not pass up the cost.  

Yeah, the problem is, maybe I am holding out for tickets like I originally bought, which had me buying two round ticket trips cross county for just over $400 total. Of course this was in late March 2020 when no one was flying anywhere. Google Flights is saying prices are high right now, but like I said, I'm concerned they may get even higher as we move forward. 

JH6056

I'm planning to buy now. I don't see any reason to think they'll do anything but get more expensive from here on out. And once people feel like travel is REALLY picking up, and vaccination rates rise, I feel like people who've been stir crazy forever will be flying all over the dang place this summer.  Maybe I'm wrong, but the absence of change feels lets me be ok with the risk.

Weston1283

RiotAct10 said:

How are people handing flights so far? I have not booked mine yet, because I don't want to if the show will be cancelled obviously, but I am also worried with the price of fuel going up, that the price of flights will go up. In addition, if things do get better, and more people start flying, that will also cause a possible increase in flight rates. Just wondered how people have handled this far or what they are thinking?

I wouldn’t book anything until 4-5 weeks out at the earliest

The prices haven’t been going up much at all closer to the day of flight.  Also, the airlines continue to cut and consolidate routes, so If you book a 5 PM Friday flight right now for September, there’s a 98% chance that flight is actually leaving at 11 am come September.  I’ve noticed that 4 weeks out is usually the latest they will change the routes or consolidate.  

RiotAct10

Weston1283 said:

RiotAct10 said:

How are people handing flights so far? I have not booked mine yet, because I don't want to if the show will be cancelled obviously, but I am also worried with the price of fuel going up, that the price of flights will go up. In addition, if things do get better, and more people start flying, that will also cause a possible increase in flight rates. Just wondered how people have handled this far or what they are thinking?

I wouldn’t book anything until 4-5 weeks out at the earliest

The prices haven’t been going up much at all closer to the day of flight.  Also, the airlines continue to cut and consolidate routes, so If you book a 5 PM Friday flight right now for September, there’s a 98% chance that flight is actually leaving at 11 am come September.  I’ve noticed that 4 weeks out is usually the latest they will change the routes or consolidate.  

That is a fair point, however I will say, if they change the flight, its easier to get a full refund no questions asked. So it actually benefited me for the flights I bought last year because they weren't going to refund it, but then when they made a change I got the refund.