CoVid19 Virus : Impact on PJ Spring & Summer Tours

NewfieintheUSA

bootlegger10 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Holy crap, people really get this worked up over this? 

You would if you lived in China.   Nothing to get worked up now in North America but we are speculating on the future.  Would be good to have numbers we can trust out of China though.  Good to hear that only one person has died outside of China thus far so at least we know the odds aren't like 30% or something. 

Agreed, I would if I lived in China. No point in getting all worked up about it in NA right now. 

THEBIBLEISTEN

Malroth said:

THEBIBLEISTEN said:

how how about this, if your sick DONT come to the shows. If your a moron who is coughing, stay the fuck home. If you have a fever, stay the fuck home. If you are gunna sneeze, cover your fucking face. Is that clear? If you have any questions just let me know.

What if ed's sick?

Then stone can sing. 

rollings

Malroth said:

THEBIBLEISTEN said:

how how about this, if your sick DONT come to the shows. If your a moron who is coughing, stay the fuck home. If you have a fever, stay the fuck home. If you are gunna sneeze, cover your fucking face. Is that clear? If you have any questions just let me know.

What if ed's sick?

Then he better cover his fucking face.
  It says right there in the bible, "cover ye fucking face'

lastexitlondon

My friend drank eds wine when ed was ill and he got eds virus. 

Sarava

mattsavard said:

KN219077 said:

F Me In The Brain said:

No, I would be more worried about the flu 

Exactly. People watch the news too much. Flu is all around you, and way more likely to get you.

Yes, right now Flu has killed more folks, and right now you're absolutely more likely to get it. 

However, COVID-19 is very new and is on it's way. Head of CDC said it will be spread freely here this year, and all they can do is slow it down. 

REG FLU: 26 Million Infected : 250k Hospitalized (1%) - 14k Dead (0.05%)

IF COVID-19 Infects the same 26 Million : 3.9 Million Hospitalized (15%) - 1.3 Million Critical (organ failure) - Half a Million Dead (2%)

Now, maybe 26 Million won't be infected... but if the CDC expects it to be transmitted freely, and it's much more contageous than the regular flu... then there's not much to base that stance on.

There's a chance we will have a vaccine by the time it gets here, or some retroviral drug will help. There's a chance the hospitalization/Critical/Death rate goes down. Lots of reasons to be hopeful. But as it stands right now, to say the Flu is a bigger concern than this virus, big picture, is a very myopic. 

Thankfully it generally takes ~3 weeks to go from public transfer to full on epidemic (quarantines and shutdown/cancellation of most services. Japan has just reached public transfer and they're already telling folks to avoid public events. I suspect within 2-3 weeks they wil have full on quarantine/closures like China. They've already started cancelling or massively reducing events, like the famous Toyko Marathon. 

ABOUT THE SHOWS:

I'm hoping it doesn't hit public transmission here for another month or two, but once it does IMO we're looking at a ticking clock for how long before shows and events start getting cancelled. Many companies are canceling events already. Shows were cancelled during the threat of SARS (which this has already blown past)... there IS precedent, and reason to keep watch and consider backup plans. 

At the shows, If it IS public by then, PLEASE don't go if you have the flu or are symptomatic. We all love PJ and don't want to miss them, but the risk of hospitalizing or even possibly killing fellow jammers sounds crazy to say but that's a risk you'd be exposing other fans to.

At the shows, love some of the suggestions here. Avoid touching eyes/mouth. Avoid touching hand rails and other folks as much as possible. Wash/Sanitize frequently. Some fans will likely wear masks regardless of how bad / not bad... try to be supportive/cool to em. 

Fingers crossed this won't be an issue until after the shows (or at all). Certainly a chance of that! But, it can't hurt to look into contingencies.  

Cheers! 

One thing we don't know is - would the 2-3% death rate hold true in America as well? I don't know what level of health care the people of the Wuhan province have, compared to America's health care?

But yeah, this is on my mind. It certainly could affect our trips/shows. And its not as simple as saying 'don't come if you have flu symptoms'. Many people don't develop the symptoms for 7-10 days after being exposed to the virus. That's a big part of why this virus is so dangerous. People who think they are healthy, can be out and about unknowingly giving the virus to others.

PB11041

mattsavard said:

PB11041 said:

these numbers are erroneous you are comparing a newly discovered strain of coronavirus (yes this is not new in isolation, it is a variant)

there are people who likely have been infected, did not report it, recovered and it is not charted in the mix at all. 

There is a reason that places like the CDC and WHO would not dare make such ridiculous projections, because they know they do not have all the data, they can only chart what they have but understand there is data they simply do not have on cases that did not evolve to critical in nature.

Also, I don't know why you are highlighting organ failure as if it is specific to COVID-19, that is how you die of the flu mostly too, organ failure from a deeply aggressive and compromised immune system. 

Yes there are many coronaviruses, but this strain is new to humans from what I've heard. Would love to see a link correcting me if ya got one!

With regards to the serious/failure/death rates I provided, they were direct from the WHO speech today. I assume you saw it? If you have issues with those numbers, feel free to take it up with them. Until proven otherwise I'll take their word over an anon user on a forum.  

With regards to the hard numbers, obviously those are not official projects. I applied the WHO issued rates to the same sample size as the flu. I was pretty clear about that, and that other factors could reduce that. 

I'm highlighting the organ failure because the WHO did in their speech today. They found it important enough to highlight so I did as well. Also the mechanism of death (systemic sepsis, organ failure due to cytokine storm, and respiratory failure) is NOT the same as the traditional flu. This has been clarified in several googlable medical studies and there's no need to do so here. 

In the context of Pearl Jam's live shows, all that's really relevant is that the CDC has stated widespread transmission is coming to the US... It's just a matter of how much time they can buy.

Selfishly, in the context of this forum... I'm openly hoping it's long enough to not interfere with this epic tour we're about to kick off.   Unfortunately my travel protection insurance does NOT cover "Fear of Epidemic/Pandemic" nor "Concert cancellation" as reasons for payment. If you have travel insurance and are curious, I suggest you check your fine print as well. 

Cheers!

If it turns into a world wide pandemic with unheard of death rates since flu of the early 1900s, I think you will and most will get over the loss of uninsured travel expenses.   That is, if you survive.

D-Rod

F Me In The Brain said:

No, I would be more worried about the flu 

exactly.  the common flu kills more people than this will.  

foodboy

the numbers coming out of china may not be accurate to say the least. what do they know that we don't. 400 million quarantined . i have spoken with someone who is connected in the medical community who says the numbers they tell you are low. so judge for yourself.  one day after letting people off the cruise ship in cambodia a u s citizen showed symptoms of the virus one day after the 2 week period. all the other passengers have scattered. think about that for a moment. 

mattsavard

D-Rod said:

F Me In The Brain said:

No, I would be more worried about the flu 

exactly.  the common flu kills more people than this will.  

If a virus that's 2-3 times more contagious than the flu, and 10x more deadly than the flu somehow manages to have a lower death toll than the flu... well, I'll be VERY happy to come in here and say you were right.

Unfortunately this thing is just getting started, so I'm not quite as confident as you that will be the case. 

Time will tell! I just hope we can keep it from widespread transmission in the US and Canada till April :fingerscrossed: 

mattsavard

Part of the concern, for me, is how incredibly contagious this virus is (Double or Triple that of the flu) . Any attempts to compare it to the common flu, or previous coronavirus cycles (like SARS) are foolhardy. 

This thing is going global, it's just a matter of when. Stuff like this is why the head of the CDC has said they can't stop it, but are just trying to slow it down. 



That unprecedented transmission rate is why I'm nervous about this impacting spring tour. Countries like Israel that are faster at guaranteeing known "infected" nations (japan, singapore, etc).


HYPOTHETICALLY if it's "here" by the time the tour comes around...are you:
1) Wearing a mask and goggles to the show?
2) Skipping the show?
3) Saying YOLO and going in raw?   


I think 2 is out of the question for me... I'm torn between 1 and 3. Leaning 1. 

pierj53

So many ignorant and insulated comments in this thread. People don't realize full cities are on lockdown. Went from letting people leave the house for essentials only, to do not leave your house at all, rations will be brought to you. Arrested on the spot if you're seen outside. 

Residential lockdowns of varying strictness now cover at least 760 million people in China.

For some perspective, That's half of China’s population and over double the population of the United States (~327 million people as of 2018). 

Oh and Japan now has community based spread. The same Japan that refused to cancel flights from China.

Those that are not up to speed and shrug this off “oh it’s just the flu, or the flu kills more people!”, I ask you to educate yourself. The worst thing you could do is be dismissive and say “I have no control”. 

HesCalledDyer

THEBIBLEISTEN said:

how how about this, if your sick DONT come to the shows. If your a moron who is coughing, stay the fuck home. If you have a fever, stay the fuck home. If you are gunna sneeze, cover your fucking face. Is that clear? If you have any questions just let me know.

This should just generally be understood when in public at all, even if viruses never existed in the history of the universe.  It's just plain damn disgusting to sneeze and not cover.

Malroth

HesCalledDyer said:

THEBIBLEISTEN said:

how how about this, if your sick DONT come to the shows. If your a moron who is coughing, stay the fuck home. If you have a fever, stay the fuck home. If you are gunna sneeze, cover your fucking face. Is that clear? If you have any questions just let me know.

This should just generally be understood when in public at all, even if viruses never existed in the history of the universe.  It's just plain damn disgusting to sneeze and not cover.

I use the sneeze (or cough) inside my shirt method.  Is this acceptable practice in public (if I don't expose a nipple)?

TinaE

Malroth said:

HesCalledDyer said:

THEBIBLEISTEN said:

how how about this, if your sick DONT come to the shows. If your a moron who is coughing, stay the fuck home. If you have a fever, stay the fuck home. If you are gunna sneeze, cover your fucking face. Is that clear? If you have any questions just let me know.

This should just generally be understood when in public at all, even if viruses never existed in the history of the universe.  It's just plain damn disgusting to sneeze and not cover.

I use the sneeze (or cough) inside my shirt method.  Is this acceptable practice in public (if I don't expose a nipple)?

Right. Or sneeze in the crook of your arm and don't forget to wash your hands!

mattsavard

Italy looking pretty rough with a dozen towns/cities now in quarantine. 

I'm officially getting nervous this is going to impact the tour significantly. I really hope I'm wrong. :( 

MR242791

Let’s not Jinx it. We all gonna be healthy and so will the band.  36 days to go 🎸🍻😁

jeremyjmcb

mattsavard said:

Italy looking pretty rough with a dozen towns/cities now in quarantine. 

I'm officially getting nervous this is going to impact the tour significantly. I really hope I'm wrong. :( 

Not sure what shows you are attending, but I genuinely doubt that entire Canadian or US cities are going to impose mandatory quarantines in the next two months. First because the methodology doesn’t appear to actually stop the spread as well as expected, second because I don’t think enough cases will have presented in either country by that time.

Canada has nine cases total, with three recovered.

The US has 36 cases-and the initial cases that presented have all recovered. While China’s methods may be effective, I cannot imagine the governments of either country imposing, or attempting to impose mass quarantines.

Also, with the limited number of cases, the odds of actually acquiring the virus while traveling on tour with PJ are slim at best. It’s worth noting that Wuhan has approx 11 million residents, with 78,000 reporting illness. That is .007 (approx.) percent of their population infected.

I am not saying that Covid-19 won’t be a problem, I’m saying that I don’t anticipate it being a problem that requires travel bans, quarantines, and concert cancellations in North America in the next two months.

See you at the shows!

PB11041

I think all the worried should immediately post their tickets on the f2f.

bbiggs

I look at it like this.  If the virus becomes that significant of a problem, we have much bigger things to worry about than attending a rock concert. 

23scidoo

I wasn't worry about the virus too much but i have plan a trip to Italy in May and after the latest news from our neighbours, now starts to worry a little bit..

lastexitlondon

It will in my opinion be too much of a risk to band  and more importantly  their families for them to risk it. So i bet it will re arranged 

False_Belief

mattsavard said:

Italy looking pretty rough with a dozen towns/cities now in quarantine. 

I'm officially getting nervous this is going to impact the tour significantly. I really hope I'm wrong. :( 

The band BIg Thief (who I love and am supposed to be seeing this Thursday in London, all being well) pulled their show in Milan last night.   There's been a sudden surge of cases and 4 deaths in Italy, from what I gather.  

Like all of us I'm hoping for the best, but we're 23 days out from the start of the tour and things are going to get a lot worse before they get better......

Sarava

It's hard to imagine this not having an outbreak in the USA. Mostly a question of when. Hopefully researchers can come up with a vaccine soon.

PB11041

bbiggs said:

I look at it like this.  If the virus becomes that significant of a problem, we have much bigger things to worry about than attending a rock concert. 

MR242791

PB11041 said:

I think all the worried should immediately post their tickets on the f2f.

Lol

mattsavard

Sarava said:

It's hard to imagine this not having an outbreak in the USA. Mostly a question of when. Hopefully researchers can come up with a vaccine soon.

Concur. My only hope is it doesn't get bad before the shows. Unfortunately I wouldn't be holding my breath if I had tickets to the European shows. I hope I'm wrong but if history serves correctly, large festivals will almost certainly be among the first things cancelled once the virus is entrenched. 

IMO given what I'm reading about the makeup of the virus, I'm not optimistic of containment, or a vaccine anytime soon. This is going to have to run it's course... and if so, it's not going to be pretty. :( 

24 Days till we fly out for the Ottawa & Quebec City shows. 38 days till I hit the road for Nashville & St Louis.

Fingers crossed. 

 

THEBIBLEISTEN

A company in Colorado has a vaccine. 

lastexitlondon

THEBIBLEISTEN said:

A company in Colorado has a vaccine. 

Really?

THEBIBLEISTEN

I read it somewhere. Got to be tested. Who knows how long that takes. 

Deadman

bbiggs said:

I look at it like this.  If the virus becomes that significant of a problem, we have much bigger things to worry about than attending a rock concert. 

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